Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook with low operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading feasibility [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short-term equilibrium with low operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with limited trading potential [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the energy market is bearish, mainly due to geopolitical risk mitigation and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] - The impact of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza on the market needs continuous attention, especially its influence on the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.45% intraday [2] - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza eases geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2] - The marginal increase in surplus pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year remains the main trading theme, so a bearish approach is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The breakthrough in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiation causes the decline of geopolitical risk premium, leading to the drop of crude oil and fuel oil prices [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by damaged devices and refinery seasonal maintenance in the short term, but supply pressure may emerge in the medium term [3] - The high-sulfur marine fuel demand may be suppressed if the Red Sea resumes navigation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure and weak demand, with a loose supply-demand pattern [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory lower than before the holiday [4] - A refinery postponed its maintenance and started it from mid-October to mid-November [4] - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance and is under pressure due to the weakening cost end [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future production increase of OPEC+ intensifies the supply pressure of overseas associated gas [5] - The CP price cut in Saudi Arabia in October exceeds market expectations, leading to a decline in import costs [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand after the holiday [5] - LPG is under short-term pressure, and the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops needs attention [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-09-30 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险减弱，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普宣布以色列和卡塔尔的之间的冲突结束，同时也暗示巴以冲突未来 将降温，此举得到阿拉伯国家的赞同。在中东地缘风险显著降温的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The main reason is the intensification of Middle East geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract rose 1.10% to 488.9 yuan/barrel in the night session on Monday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Middle East geopolitical risks have re - emerged. On Monday afternoon, there were reports that the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked an Israeli oil tanker as retaliation for the Israeli air strikes on Yemeni Houthi officials. The Yemeni Houthi rebels also emphasized that they would escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel in the future, which increased the expectation of Middle East geopolitical conflict risks and led to a recovery in crude oil premiums [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on asphalt, suggesting a strategy of buying the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to factors such as the continued recovery of asphalt production, approaching peak season, recent rise in crude oil prices, and the expectation of increased demand, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South. National asphalt shipments decreased by 4.67% to 249,000 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise slightly this week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Geopolitical and market factors: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran. Global trade war concerns have subsided somewhat, but the threat remains. Crude oil prices have risen recently. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.74% to 3,655 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,629 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,665 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,364 to 228,073 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 175 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Sinochem Quanzhou has intermittent production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared to January - April 2025. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, an improvement from - 0.4% in January - May. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, a decline from 5.6% in January - May [4] - Downstream operating rates: As of the week ending July 18, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - Fiscal policy and social financing: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, and new loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171 billion yuan [4] Inventory - As of the week ending July 18, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.1 percentage points to 17.0% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market has reflected OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025. Considering the downstream peak season, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the near term [10]. - As asphalt gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. - Given the high inventory and weak demand, it is expected that PP will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [13]. - Due to high inventory and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a low level in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15]. - PVC is under great pressure before the demand is substantially improved. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [17]. - Domestic soybean oil is under supply pressure and weak demand, and its price is expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the final bio - fuel obligation volume [18]. - Although the domestic soybean meal inventory is high, there may be a large gap in the supply of imported soybeans in the long term. It is expected that the price of domestic soybean meal may rise. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and Sino - US trade negotiations [20]. - Under the weak balance of supply and demand and the increasing policy expectations, it is expected that rebar will fluctuate strongly in the short term [21]. - It is expected that hot - rolled coils will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. - It is expected that coking coal will mainly fluctuate in the short term [24]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of news [26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Varieties Carbonate Lithium - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium remained flat compared with the previous trading day. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. The cost side supports the upward trend. Affected by the futures market and policies, the market sentiment has risen, but the futures price deviates from the fundamentals. Although it maintains a strong pattern, there is a risk of decline [3]. Copper - The copper price was supported by the expected weakening of the US dollar. The supply shortage expectation has been alleviated, and the demand of downstream industries is weak, except for the new energy industry. After the cooling of the sentiment of arbitrageurs rushing to the US, the inventory in other regions has increased, which puts pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the US may cause the market to decline further [5]. Futures Market Overview - As of July 15, domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends. Polysilicon and logs rose significantly, while container shipping to Europe and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In terms of capital flow, some stock index futures contracts had capital inflows, while some metal futures contracts had capital outflows [7]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East has eased, but attention should be paid to subsequent developments. The US crude oil inventory has decreased, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will increase production in August, and is considering suspending further production increases from October. OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast. Considering the peak consumption season and the threat of US sanctions on Russia, it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to increase in July. The downstream construction rate has mostly declined, and the inventory is at a low level. Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the global trade war, the increase in crude oil prices is limited. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream construction rate of PP has declined, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. The inventory is at a high level. Affected by the global trade war and the situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has fluctuated. Considering the new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that PP will fluctuate at a low level [13]. Plastic - The plastic construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate is at a low level. The inventory is at a high level. The US - China trade situation has both positive and negative impacts. Considering the new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [15]. PVC - The PVC construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate is low. The inventory is high. The export is restricted, and the demand in the real estate industry is weak. With new production capacity coming online and weak demand, it is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16][17]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil price has shown a strong range - bound trend. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the production of biodiesel may support the demand, the decline in international crude oil prices may reduce the demand for soybean oil as a bio - fuel. It is expected that the domestic soybean oil price will remain under pressure [18]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal price has shown an upward trend. The supply is abundant, and the domestic inventory is high. However, there may be a large gap in the supply of imported soybeans in the long term, and the market speculation may drive up the price. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and Sino - US trade negotiations [20]. Rebar - The rebar price has rebounded. The supply reduction is limited, the demand shows regional differentiation, the inventory pressure is controllable, and the policy expectation is increasing. Considering the cost support, it is expected that the rebar will fluctuate strongly in the short term [21]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil price has rebounded. The supply is resilient, the demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the inventory is increasing. Although the cost provides support, the actual impact of policies needs time to verify. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price has fluctuated. The supply will increase with the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance, but the second - round price increase expectation supports the market. The downstream steel mill profit is good, and the iron water production is still high. It is expected that the coking coal will mainly fluctuate in the short term [24]. Urea - The urea price has shown a weak upward trend. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the decline rate has slowed down. It is expected that the urea will fluctuate weakly in the short term [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of domestic futures is complex, with different trends for various varieties. For example, the prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical risks, and policy changes. Overall, most commodities are in a state of oscillation, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy implementation and supply - demand changes [3][4][9] Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - Price: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 64,950 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade is 63,350 yuan/ton, both up 50 yuan/ton from the previous workday [3] - Supply: The weekly capacity utilization rate is 62%, up from last week. The output in June was 74,000 tons, with inventory continuously increasing [3] - Demand: The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The operating load of battery material factories increased in July, and the consumption data of new - energy vehicles is on an upward trend [3] - Market: The market sentiment has cooled, and the market is oscillating strongly [3] Coking Coal - Price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) is 1,020 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 783 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: The import volume of coal from Mongolia is expected to increase after the holiday. The domestic coal production affected by the safety month has also recovered. The daily output of coal washing plants has increased by about 0.8 tons [4][5] - Demand: The coke price increase has been implemented, driving up the upstream price. The downstream steel mills have good profits, and the coking coal has stronger resistance to decline than coke [5] - Market: The supply support is gradually weakening, but the short - term market is oscillating without a pessimistic outlook [5] Copper - Price: The price of Shanghai copper has declined [9] - Supply: The copper concentrate inventory has increased, and the tight supply expectation has been alleviated. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The apparent consumption of electrolytic copper has increased, but the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and only emerging industries such as new energy are performing well [9] - Market: The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [9] Crude Oil - Price: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [10][11] - Supply: OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level [10][11] - Demand: It has entered the seasonal peak travel season [10] - Market: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, but there are still uncertainties such as sanctions and the Iran nuclear agreement [10][11] Asphalt - Price: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12] - Supply: The asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons in July, with an increase of 6.0% month - on - month and 23.6% year - on - year [12] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has mostly declined, and the terminal project funds are still restricted [12] - Market: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, and the crude oil price increase is limited [12] PP - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14] - Supply: The new capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's No. 4 unit was put into operation in June, and the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly [14] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined, and the new orders are limited [14] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [14] Plastic - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [15][17] - Supply: The new capacity of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's No. 2 HDPE unit has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly [15][17] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is at a low level, and the new orders are followed up slowly [15][17] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and attention should be paid to the global trade war [15][17] PVC - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [18] - Supply: The operating rate has decreased, and new capacities such as Wanhua Chemical are about to be put into operation [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is low, and the export is restricted [18] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and the demand has not been substantially improved [18] Soybean Oil - Price: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but there is a callback pressure [19][20] - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean oil has increased, and the supply is loose [19] - Demand: The domestic consumption is weak, and the consumption in the bio - fuel field may decrease [19][20] - Market: Attention should be paid to the crude oil price fluctuation and inventory accumulation [19][20] Soybean Meal - Price: It oscillates strongly, deviating from the price trend of US soybeans [21] - Supply: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has increased [21] - Demand: The consumption demand has increased [21] - Market: Attention should be paid to the US trade agreement [21] Rebar - Price: It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand inflection points [22][23] - Supply: The production reduction is continuing, but the supply contraction is slow [22][23] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the demand toughness is weakening [22][23] - Market: The cost support is in a game, and the market is in a seasonal weak state [22][23] Hot Rolled Coil - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25] - Supply: The supply pressure has increased slightly [24] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and exports may shrink [24][25] - Market: The fundamentals are moderately weak [24][25] Urea - Price: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [26] - Supply: The daily output is around 200,000 tons, and new capacities are being put into operation [26] - Demand: The agricultural demand in the north is weakening, and the downstream is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [26] - Market: The market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest going long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts on dips as the market is gradually entering the peak season [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. Constrained by funds and heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - Inventory: As of the week of July 11, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio continued to rise slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - Market environment: The intensity of Iran's retaliatory actions was lower than expected, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the US Treasury recently announced new sanctions against Iran. The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. Crude oil prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range recently [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.52% to 3,606 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a low of 3,598 yuan/ton and a high of 3,618 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 9,424 to 217,364 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,825 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 219 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: A refinery in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, the national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared with January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.4%, a slight increase from - 0.9% in January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, a slight decrease from 5.8% in January - April 2025 [4] - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from last year. The deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. The general public budget expenditure is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year. The total new government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: The weak retaliatory action by Iran and the full ceasefire between Iran and Israel have significantly reduced the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cannot be completely ruled out. Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, and U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level. But the latest EIA report shows an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It is recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [7][14]. - Bitumen: The bitumen开工率 has rebounded slightly, but the downstream demand is still affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which puts pressure on the crude oil market sentiment. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of bitumen at low prices [8][81]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced. The PVC开工率 has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near future, and it is mainly recommended to go short at high prices [9][100]. - L&PP: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined to a moderately low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is still large. The U.S. government's cancellation of ethane - related restrictions is beneficial to the recovery of Sino - U.S. trade. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [10][126]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC's crude oil production increased in April and May 2025, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly in the week ending June 27, 2025, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [20]. - Demand: According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased, but was lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased, while diesel weekly demand increased [36]. - Inventory: As of the week ending June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased [45]. - Geopolitical Risks: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced geopolitical risks, but risks still exist, such as Iran's uranium - enrichment activities and the situation in the Israel - Hamas negotiations [49][52]. Bitumen - Supply: The bitumen开工率 rebounded slightly last week, and the expected production in July is expected to increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [67][81]. - Demand: The downstream demand for bitumen is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The road - bitumen开工率 increased slightly, but is still at a relatively low level [74]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the bitumen refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly, but is still at the lowest level in recent years [78]. PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased slightly, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced [91][100]. - Demand: The downstream demand for PVC has not improved substantially, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. The export of PVC to India is restricted by policies and the rainy season [9][100]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 3, 2025, PVC social inventory increased slightly and is still at a relatively high level [97]. L&PP - Supply: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined. New production capacity has been put into operation, and recent maintenance devices have increased, alleviating some pressure [112][126]. - Demand: The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak. The PE and PP downstream开工率 are at relatively low levels, and the recovery is slow [118][126]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory is at a moderately low level, and the de - stocking speed is average [123][126].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of the domestic futures market on July 7, 2025, was more declines than increases. The prices of various commodities were affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical risks. Different commodities had different trends and outlooks, including high - level oscillations, low - level oscillations, and trends of being strong or weak [7]. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium closed flat after opening lower and rising higher. The average price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 60,950 yuan/ton, both up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply was relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.8%, slightly down from last week. The price of spodumene concentrate was 660 yuan/ton, up 30 dollars/ton week - on - week. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the inventory remained high. The market was affected by the idea of capacity clearance, increasing the expectation of tight supply. The tariff exemption period ended on the 9th, and there might be variables in tariffs. The market was in high - level consolidation and mainly showed a strong trend [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and fell during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 745 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. In May, the import volume of coal decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a low level this year. Domestic coal production increased this period. The inventory of ports and independent coking enterprises increased significantly, and the supply was still loose. The steel mill's demand was still rigid, but the coke price was lowered four times, and the terminal's operating rate was low in high - temperature and rainy weather. The coking coal market was expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside was limited [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. The overseas macro - environment was mainly about the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the subsequent tariff situation after the expiration of the US tariff exemption period. The employment data was better than expected, increasing the market's wait - and - see attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cut. The tariff exemption period expired this week. The supply tightness expectation was slightly improved, but the copper inventory in other regions continued to decline. The demand was expected to enter the off - season in July, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [9]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation was greatly relieved, and the market's concern about the supply interruption of crude oil was alleviated. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It was recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply was increasing, with the production expected to reach 2.542 million tons in July, a 6.0% increase from the previous month. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The Middle East geopolitical risk was reduced, and OPEC + planned to increase production in August. It was recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased, and the upstream propane import was restricted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the downstream recovery was slow, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The plastic's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased. The upstream ethane import was restricted, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC's supply was decreasing, and the downstream demand was still weak. The export was restricted by policies, and the inventory was high. The real - estate market improvement needed time. It was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to short at high prices [17]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean supply was still in surplus, and the domestic soybean import and oil - mill operating rate were high. The soybean meal inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by multiple factors. It was expected to oscillate weakly [18][19]. Soybean Oil - The international soybean oil demand was expected to increase, but the price rebound was restricted by weather and export sales. The domestic soybean - oil supply was abundant, and the inventory was rising. The terminal demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the EPA's hearing on biofuel blending targets [20]. Rebar - The rebar's supply pressure was not substantially relieved, and the demand was affected by high - temperature and rainy weather. The inventory was expected to accumulate, and the cost support was weakening. It was expected to oscillate downward, and it was recommended to short in bands [21][22]. Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil's supply was increasing, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was accumulating, and the policy implementation was slow. It was expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [23][25]. Urea - The urea's supply was expected to increase this week, and the demand was weak both in industry and agriculture. The inventory was decreasing, and the export supported the price. It was expected to oscillate strongly [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market focused on Iran's retaliatory actions, which increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, Trump's statements and Iran's weak retaliatory actions and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down the geopolitical risks and alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. Still, the subsequent development of the Middle East situation needs attention [1] - Fundamentally, crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, US crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level, and OPEC+ production increases have fallen short of expectations, leading to a marginal improvement in crude oil supply - demand. But the OPEC+ meeting is about to discuss accelerating production increases, and US crude oil and gasoline inventories have unexpectedly increased. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Lightly buy crude oil put options. With the cooling of Middle East geopolitical risks, the OPEC+ meeting approaching to discuss accelerating production increases, and the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, cautious operation is advised [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.04% to 503.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 502.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 509.2 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1408 to 25655 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. EIA lowered the 2026 US crude oil production forecast by 120,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day, and raised the 2025 global oil inventory increase from 4,000 barrels per day to 8,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts by 20,000 barrels per day to 720,000 and 740,000 barrels per day respectively [3] - On the evening of July 2, US EIA data showed that for the week ending June 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.809 million barrels), 9.30% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 4.188 million barrels (expected to decrease by 236,000 barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 1.71 million barrels (expected to decrease by 960,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.493 million barrels [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's April crude oil production was raised by 128,000 barrels per day to 26.838 million barrels per day, and its May 2025 production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 27.022 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in Saudi production. US crude oil production in the week ending June 27 decreased by 200 barrels per day to 13.433 million barrels per day, 198,000 barrels per day lower than the record high in early December last year [4] - US crude oil product four - week average supply increased to 20.288 million barrels per day, but decreased by 2.93% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 10.82% to 8.64 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.199 million barrels per day, a 0.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 6.56% to 4.043 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.74 million barrels per day, a 0.55% increase compared to the same period last year. The large decrease in gasoline demand led to a 0.13% decrease in US crude oil product single - week supply [4]