Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities and Iran planning to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar index, and higher US Treasury yields, which initially dampened global risk appetite but later recovered after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals. Domestically, the economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is mainly focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the domestic stock index market is oscillating weakly in the short term [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are oscillating weakly in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, oil prices are increasing, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strengthening, initially suppressing global risk appetite. After Powell's dovish signals, the US Treasury sell - off eased, yields declined, and risk appetite recovered [2]. - **Domestic situation**: In January - February 2026, the economy and inflation exceeded expectations, with strong exports and rising inflation. The policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The stock index market is oscillating weakly due to concerns about the Middle East situation [2][3]. - **Asset trends**: Stocks are oscillating weakly and volatile in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market rebounded due to the performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products. The economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the stock index market is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. With rising oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, spot gold was under pressure. It first reached the $4580 mark and then fell back, with a final increase of 0.35% to $4510.97 per ounce. Spot silver also rose and then fell, closing up 0.48% at $70.047 per ounce. Precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. Due to the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns increased. The real - world demand improved marginally, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and inventory decline accelerating. Supply decreased slightly, and iron - water production increased slightly. The steel market will follow cost trends in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Rising oil prices supported the iron ore price. Iron - water production increased to over 230 tons, and the proportion of profitable steel mills was around 43%, indicating strong demand. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 6.71 million tons week - on - week, while arrivals increased by 2.113 million tons. The price increase space is limited, and there is a risk of adjustment if energy prices weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. Rising energy prices supported the alloy prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6220 - 6320 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6300 - 6350 yuan/ton. Rising costs led some factories to reduce production. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is at a low level, and the production cost is supported. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be oscillating strongly [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, leading to a large decrease in social inventory. However, the inventory reduction may slow down after the replenishment. The copper market supply is abundant, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts inventory reduction. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, with a tight but not extremely short supply [8]. - **Aluminum**: An attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. However, the company plans to resume operations soon. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is high, and the reduction is slow due to high supply [8]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically stable, at 21.4 million tons, slightly lower than in 2022. The zinc ore processing fee in the south has rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the production is at a relatively high level. The demand is not optimistic [9][10]. - **Lead**: The domestic lead ingot inventory increased from 57,600 tons to 60,100 tons, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead is increasing seasonally. The demand peak has passed, and the import volume in the first two months increased significantly [10]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy on nickel is uncertain. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and MHP supply may decline. Nickel prices have support at the bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [11]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diverse. The demand is mixed, with semiconductor sales growing but other industries performing poorly. Tin prices rebounded due to increased risk appetite and inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the volatile market sentiment [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 4.53% on Monday. The supply and demand are both strong, the social inventory is low, and the smelting plant inventory is continuously low. With low inventory and supply disruptions, the upward potential is large. It is recommended to buy at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell 2.01% on Monday. The supply and demand are weak, the capacity is surplus, and the inventory is high. It is priced close to cost and follows the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to operate within a range [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% on Monday. The price is at the full - cost range, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US threat to Iran led to the US oil price reaching over $100 for the first time after the war. The conflict is unlikely to end soon, and the short - term oil price will continue to be strong [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded with the rising oil price. The supply problem persists, and the seasonal demand will increase, leading to inventory reduction. The short - term price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [15]. - **PX**: The PX price is strong due to the reduction of Japanese and Korean device operations and increased domestic maintenance plans. However, the price increase may be limited by the increased PTA maintenance plans [16]. - **PTA**: The terminal production and sales are low, but PTA prices rose with the decline of the reforming device. The negative feedback from the downstream restricts the price increase, but the overall trend is still upward [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease due to raw material problems. The price is rising, but attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price is oscillating strongly, following the PTA and other varieties. The raw material price is high, but the recovery is restricted by the downstream production reduction [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The domestic and port methanol markets are strong. International supply has tightened due to device shutdowns, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price is rising but with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and downstream negative feedback [18]. - **PP**: The PP market price has increased due to supply reduction and demand increase. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price is adjusting. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, leading to inventory reduction. The price is expected to be strong, but there is pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are important [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The policy and demand are in a game, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and attention should be paid to the planting intention report and quarterly grain inventory report. Analysts expect the 2026 sowing area to increase [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased seasonally, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased. The basis is high, and the short - term supply is tight, but the future supply is expected to be loose. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and it will oscillate with soybean meal [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT soybean oil price rose. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the oil price is affected by the rising crude oil price. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD palm oil price rose. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy boosted the market. The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in March, and the export increased significantly. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased [23]. - **Corn**: The corn price shows regional differentiation. The inventory in the northern ports increased, and the price in the northeast is weak. The downstream demand is affected by alternative sources, and the price may be restricted by the possible rice auction [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig weight is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term profit is in deficit, and the policy encourages production reduction. The short - term spot price may weaken, while the long - term outlook is improving. There is risk in the short - term futures market [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View - On March 25th, platinum and palladium prices continued to rebound. PT2606 closed up 5.63% to 505.85 yuan/gram, and PD2606 closed up 5.07% to 368.55 yuan/gram. Macroscopically, the establishment of a dialogue channel between the US and Iran through a third - party released a calming signal, oil prices continued to decline, and market sentiment recovery drove the rebound of platinum and palladium. However, Middle - East geopolitical risks have not been fundamentally eliminated, and there may be a risk of military escalation, and the expectation of tight liquidity still dominates, limiting the rebound space of platinum and palladium. Fundamentally, platinum supply is tight due to investment and industrial demand support, while palladium is severely restricted by the electrification transformation of the automotive industry. The "platinum - tight, palladium - loose" pattern is expected to continue. In the short term, platinum and palladium are likely to maintain a range - bound trend. After the Middle - East geopolitical situation becomes clear, investors can consider going long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the "long platinum, short palladium" strategy [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Domestic Prices (Yuan/gram)**: Platinum futures主力收盘价 was 505.85 (previous value 487.4, up 3.79%); spot platinum (99.95%) was 503 (previous value 474, up 6.12%); platinum basis (spot - futures) was - 2.85 (previous value - 13.4, down 78.73%); palladium futures主力收盘价 was 368.55 (previous value 359.5, up 2.52%); spot palladium (99.95%) was 364.5 (previous value 351.5, up 3.70%); palladium basis (spot - futures) was - 4.05 (previous value - 8, down 49.37%) [5] - **International Prices (15:00, US dollars/ounce)**: London spot platinum was 1962.3 (previous value 1884.09, up 4.15%); London spot palladium was 1466.675 (previous value 1426.243, up 2.83%); NYMEX platinum was 1951.3 (previous value 1871.6, up 4.26%); NYMEX palladium was 1462 (previous value 1423.5, up 2.70%) [5] - **Internal - External 15:00 Price Differences (Yuan/gram,含税)**: The US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 6.8911 (previous value 6.8943, down 0.05%); platinum - London platinum price difference was 14.58 (previous value 15.49, down 5.88%); Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum price difference was 17.33 (previous value 18.62, down 6.91%); Guangzhou palladium - London palladium price difference was 1.36 (previous value 2.27, down 40.01%); Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium price difference was 2.53 (previous value 2.95, down 14.33%) [5] - **Platinum - Palladium Price Ratios**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium price ratio was 1.3725 (previous value 1.3558, change 0.0168); London spot platinum/palladium price ratio was 1.3379 (previous value 1.3210, change 0.0169) [5] Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory (Troy ounces)**: NYMEX platinum inventory was 579,274 (unchanged from the previous value); NYMEX palladium inventory was 248,374 (unchanged from the previous value) [5] - **Position**: NYMEX total platinum position was 67,292 (previous value 68,758, down 2.13%); NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum was 16,898 (previous value 14,690, up 15.03%); NYMEX total palladium position was 15,556 (previous value 15,679, down 0.78%); NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium was - 185 (previous value - 156, up 18.59%) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President signaled short - term easing, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. International energy prices dropped sharply, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields declined. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better - than - expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The market trading logic is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may be volatile and weak, but it may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3][4]. - For different asset classes: short - term stock index is volatile and weak, with intensified fluctuations, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is needed; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term volatile and rebounding, and short - term cautious observation is required; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and weak, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products are short - term highly volatile, and cautious long - positions are advised; precious metals are short - term highly volatile and generally weak, and cautious observation is needed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's statement about postponing the attack on Iran's energy infrastructure (though Iran denied it) led to a short - term easing of the situation, a sharp drop in international energy prices, and a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Domestically, the economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The goals and policy intensity in the 2026 government work report are lower than in 2025. The stock index may be volatile and weak in the short term but may improve after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as precious metals, hotels and tourism, and components, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The market trading logic is focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. The stock index is short - term volatile and weak, but may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market had a significant gap - up on Monday night. The Shanghai gold main contract closed at 980 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; the Shanghai silver main contract closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, up 3.47%. Spot gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Short - term precious metals are highly volatile and have rebounded. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. The price rebound was driven by strong coking coal, but the industry fundamentals are still weak. Steel inventory has peaked and declined, and the growth of apparent consumption of five major varieties has slowed. After the important meeting, the output of five major varieties of steel and hot metal increased last week. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly on Monday, boosted by the strong crude oil price. In terms of fundamentals, the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces increased, and the profitability of steel mills remained around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. The shipment and arrival volume of iron ore will increase this week, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually being alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of iron ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The rebound was affected by the rising crude oil price and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. The manganese ore spot price is still firm. The capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The northern production is relatively stable, and the profit margin is acceptable. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices can be considered from a volatile and upward perspective [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The spot TC has dropped below - 60 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The inventory at home and abroad has continued to accumulate, reaching a record high. The copper price has dropped sharply, and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventory. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [9]. - **Aluminum**: The market trading logic on Monday continued from last week, trading on the logic that high oil prices lead to an increase in inflation expectations and a delay in interest rate cuts. The precious metals continued to fall sharply, and the non - ferrous metal sector was searching for a bottom. The domestic primary aluminum output increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum imports remain high, and the waste aluminum imports have decreased slightly. The domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and by - product revenues make up for losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the zinc ingot inventory has decreased after seasonal accumulation. The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The supply pressure still exists. The demand peak season has passed and is gradually entering the off - season. The LME lead inventory has remained at a high level since 2025, and the domestic primary lead social inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years [12]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly, and although there is room for improvement later, the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. In the first quarter, the mining enterprises will maintain normal production. Due to the Middle East conflict and previous tailings accidents, the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad [12]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar in the first two months increased significantly, and the import from other sources also increased rapidly. The opening rate is still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The tin ingot import has decreased. The demand is uneven, with the semiconductor industry growing rapidly but other industries performing poorly. The downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a decline in social tin ingot inventory, while the LME inventory has increased. The tin price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, but caution is needed when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously being depleted. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a stronger US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but high oil prices are beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. The price rebounded at the end of yesterday, but the rumored shutdown of a lithium mine in Zimbabwe needs to be verified, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. It is expected to oscillate at the support level in the short term [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the number of open furnaces has increased slightly. The social inventory is at a high level and stable, and the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Affected by coking coal, it is expected to be strongly volatile [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt has decreased. In the long - term, the policy - oriented market clearance is negative. The price is currently in the full - cost range of the industry. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of the photovoltaic industry after April. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US postponed the attack on Iran's power facilities, and Trump said that his team had started discussions on ending the conflict. Although Iran denied it, the oil price dropped by more than 14%. The potential negotiation situation is still unclear, but the short - term upside space of the oil price will be limited. However, the US military's attacks on Iran's power - related facilities and the deployment of the Marine Corps still attract market attention. The oil price will continue to be strongly volatile in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price dropped sharply, and asphalt followed. The terminal demand showed some negative feedback, but the total inventory remained low, and the inventory accumulation pressure was limited, giving some upward expectations to asphalt. Recently, refineries have预防性 reduced their production, and the supply will continue to be at a low level. The short - term absolute price will continue to fluctuate greatly following the crude oil. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the Iran situation [16]. - **PX**: The oil price dropped sharply, and PX followed the energy and chemical sector. The price difference between PX and naphtha was suppressed. The downstream start - up recovery is slow, and the willingness to purchase raw materials after the previous emotional stockpiling has decreased. PX is affected by negative feedback. If the oil price strengthens later, there is still some upward space under the cost - driven logic [16]. - **PTA**: The energy and chemical sector followed the crude oil to drop sharply. PTA has seen obvious capital inflows recently, and the decline is about 4%. The downstream manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased significantly, leading to negative feedback and suppressing the PTA price. The basis has decreased significantly, and the production - sales ratio has also decreased. The processing fee has continued to decrease. If the oil price remains strongly volatile, the PTA price will temporarily remain in a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the polyester sector followed the crude oil price to drop sharply, ethylene glycol gave back a lot of its gains. However, the overall overseas supply shortage is difficult to change. The export expectation of ethylene glycol has increased significantly, and the port inventory has started to be depleted. The basis of ethylene glycol has strengthened slightly, and there is still upward momentum after breaking through the previous high [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The polyester sector has declined significantly. The production - sales ratio remains at a low level, and the terminal start - up is significantly lower than in previous years, suppressing the upside space of short - fiber. The price negative feedback continues to be transmitted, and the inventory has increased again after the previous de - stocking. The manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased. It will continue to be strongly volatile following PTA and other varieties in the short term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract closed at 1164.50, up 3.25 or 0.28% (settlement price 1163.50). The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed by the news of Trump's postponed visit to China. During the South American soybean harvest season, the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated, dragging down the CBOT soybean price. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil driven by crude oil is cautious, with increased uncertainty and more fund - holding for observation [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills has decreased seasonally, and there is no news of reserve auctions. The current operation level remains medium, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories are being depleted rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis to be stable and strong. Although the cost support has weakened with the adjustment of US soybeans, the risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and with the increase in rapeseed imports, the supply concern has subsided. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened slightly, but it is still low, and the substitution consumption space of rapeseed meal is limited. It will mainly fluctuate with soybean meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the basis to be stable, and there is a possibility of further pricing the risk of short - term shortage of imported soybeans. The rapeseed oil supply pressure may gradually appear with the increase in Canadian rapeseed arrivals, and it basically fluctuates in line with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, but during the important observation window of the Middle East situation, the trading sentiment of crude oil is cautious, and the support of vegetable oils from crude oil risks has weakened. Internationally, the export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the production has decreased, and the inventory may continue to decline. Domestically, the palm oil inventory has decreased [21][22]. - **Corn**: The national corn price has fluctuated. The futures price is running strongly, driving up the purchase price at the northern port. The sales progress of corn in the main producing areas has slowed down, and the storage cost of traders is high, so there is still a sentiment of supporting the price. The port and deep - processing inventories are low, supporting the price to be stable. The downstream feed enterprises are using more imported grains and policy - auctioned grains, and their acceptance of high - priced corn has decreased. The news of brown rice auctions in early April has not been confirmed, which may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the painful period of accelerated adjustment. The demand has improved marginally but is still in the off - season. The losses of farmers have increased, and the expectation of production capacity reduction has increased. The pig weight is increasing, and the second - fattening and frozen - product storage have increased. Retail farmers are reluctant to sell, but the group - farm sales have increased significantly. It is expected that the short - term spot and futures prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "oscillating and bullish" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The international crude oil futures price remains in a bullish pattern due to the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East caused by the intensified military actions of the US against Iran. However, short - term fluctuations occur as the US may be using a delaying tactic, and the domestic crude oil futures price is expected to stabilize in an oscillatory manner on Tuesday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Rating - The crude oil 2605 contract is rated as "oscillating and bullish" in the short - term, medium - term, intraday, and overall view, with the core logic being the emergence of long - short divergence [1] Price Calculation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2] Strength Definition - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is weakish, a rise between 0 - 1% is bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The bullish/weakish definition only applies to the intraday view [3][4] Driving Logic - The core driving logic for the crude oil (SC) is the intensified US - Iran conflict and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump's peace - talk signal was refuted by Iran, and the US may be using a delaying tactic, leading to a sharp adjustment in international crude oil futures and a significant drop in domestic crude oil futures on Monday night. It's expected to stabilize in an oscillatory manner on Tuesday [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. - The overall performance of different asset classes is as follows: the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals will rebound in the short - term and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be strong in the short term, and cautious long - position is recommended; precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Financial - Overseas, the market's concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as communication services, AI, and software development, the domestic stock market declined significantly. Fundamentally, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell overall on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1016.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.22%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17139 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.77%. Affected by the sharp rise in international energy prices, the market is worried that inflation will cause global central banks to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, causing precious metals to continue to weaken. Spot gold fell for the eighth consecutive trading day, the longest losing streak since October 2023. The decline intensified during the US session, with an intraday decline of more than $150, hitting a new low in more than a month, and finally closing down 3.45% at $4491.15 per ounce; spot silver fell below the $68 mark, finally closing down 7.04% at $67.79 per ounce. Precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Friday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the night session rebounded slightly affected by the rebound in coking coal prices; market transactions continued to be at a low level. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Although steel inventories have peaked and declined, the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. In terms of supply, after the important meeting ended, the output of the five major varieties of steel this week increased by 18850 tons month - on - month, and the iron ore output also increased by nearly 6900 tons. Recently, the cost and macro logic of the steel market dominate. It is recommended to continue to treat it with an interval oscillation idea, and pay attention to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of commercial and residential blast furnaces increased by 6900 tons month - on - month, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is still around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. In terms of supply, the global iron ore arrival volume last week continued to decline by 3.8 million tons month - on - month, but the shipping volume increased. In the short term, the iron ore supply is still in the off - season. However, the futures price has reflected the expectation of the recent stage - by - stage dislocation of supply and demand, and the short - term upward space of the iron ore price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded significantly. This rebound is mainly affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. Fundamentally, the manganese ore spot is still firm. The semi - carbonate quotation at Tianjin Port is 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree, the South African high - iron index quotation is 33 - 35 yuan/ton degree, the Gabon quotation is 45 yuan/ton degree and above, the South32 Australian block quotation is 44 yuan/ton degree, and the cml Australian block is 46 yuan/ton degree. In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country, the national capacity utilization rate is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily average output is 27980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. At present, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas of silicon iron is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is reported at 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have begun to implement procurement and tendering plans one after another after the Spring Festival, and the resumption progress of the trader market is also steadily increasing. It is recommended to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with an idea of oscillation and strength [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, China's economic data from January to February was slightly better than expected, especially the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned positive, but the real estate performance was still weak, and the decline rates of new construction area, construction area, and completion area all expanded, maintaining double - digit negative growth; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in March kept the interest rate unchanged, and Powell's statement was hawkish, causing the market risk appetite to decline. The dynamic changes in the Federal Reserve's views will be affected by the US employment, inflation, and the Middle East situation. The core contradiction in the fundamentals is still at the mine end. It is a consensus in the market that copper mines are tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high; although the long - term and spot TC remain at a low level, the by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. Coupled with the abundant supply of blister copper and the increasing import of scrap copper ingots, the growth rate of refined copper output is at a high level. The high copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. The explicit inventory of the three major exchanges is close to 1.29 million tons, reaching a record high [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday, the non - ferrous sector first bottomed out and then rebounded, with a relatively large rebound in the morning of the white session but a decline in the afternoon. From the import data, the domestic primary aluminum import remains at a high level; the scrap aluminum import has decreased slightly, and the overseas scrap aluminum supply is relatively tight. At present, the domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, with a 3% year - on - year increase in output from January to February, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists. Against the background that the demand side cannot bear it, the inventory continues to accumulate and is currently close to 1.36 million tons, reaching a new high in recent years. Overseas, due to the disturbance of the Middle East situation, the supply is tight, and the internal and external price difference is large [10]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc mines are mainly distributed in the south. With the resumption of work and production, the zinc ore processing fee in the southern region has rebounded from 1300 yuan/metal ton to 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee in the northern region remains at 1500 yuan/metal ton. The imported ore TC has dropped from $30/dry ton to $20/dry ton. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenue makes up for the loss, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters cut production in 2025, but will resume production in 2026, and the output will increase. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to bring obvious boost to photovoltaic demand and may even decline. After the seasonal inventory accumulation of domestic zinc ingots, it has turned to decline, reaching 229,000 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7200 tons, only slightly lower than in 2022; the LME zinc inventory has increased to nearly 120,000 tons, which has increased significantly compared with the previous period [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The weekly output of primary lead is 56,100 tons, at the highest level in recent years; the growth rate of secondary lead is also at a high level in recent years, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the peak season has passed and it is gradually entering the off - season, and the trade - in policy has overdrawn the later demand. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has continued to remain at a high level. Since the beginning of the year, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to accumulate, with a relatively high accumulation speed and amplitude. As of March 19, the inventory reached 72,600 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7500 tons, lower than in 2022 but higher than in 2023 - 2025. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, reaching 284,100 tons [12]. - **Nickel**: The mine end is still the current core contradiction point. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement later, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a shortage. In addition, the Middle East conflict has led to a shortage of sulfur in Indonesia, affecting the production of MHP. In addition, the previous tailings accident has also led to enterprise production cuts, and there is a risk of a decline in MHP supply. There is still support below the nickel price, but the upward space is limited by the high domestic and foreign inventories [12]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, 13,501 tons of tin ore were imported from Myanmar in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 175%, and the monthly average level is equivalent to that in November and December last year. As the pumping of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar accelerates, it is expected that the import volume will still have room for further growth; the import volume of tin ore from outside Myanmar is 21,444 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of up to 57%, reflecting that the sources of tin ore imports in China are more diversified; although the operating rate has dropped slightly by 0.42%, it is still at a high level in the same period in recent years; due to the continuous closure of the import window, 3269 tons of tin ingots were imported from January to February, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. On the demand side, the global semiconductor sales in January 2026 increased by 46% year - on - year, and the growth rate further expanded, but the performance of other traditional and emerging industries was poor. The automobile production from January to February decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, the photovoltaic module production decreased by 26% year - on - year, and the household appliance production plan continued to decline. The industry is significantly differentiated, and the semiconductor alone cannot support the overall demand, which is poor. As the tin price has dropped significantly, downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices, and the social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 2770 tons to 11,035 tons; the LME inventory has continued to increase, reaching 8920 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145 tons. In summary, it has fallen to the previous important support level and may stabilize and rebound in the short term. Considering that the risk appetite is still weak, be cautious when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The latest weekly output of lithium carbonate is 24,200 tons, a new high, with a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is 98,873 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89 tons. Among them, the inventories of smelters, downstream, and others have increased by 316, 458, and decreased by 860 tons respectively month - on - month. The smelters and downstream have slightly accumulated inventory, and the traders have reduced inventory. The latest warehouse receipt inventory of lithium carbonate is 34,318 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2085 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is low. The old warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled at the end of this month. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both prosperous. The continuous reduction of social inventory of lithium carbonate and the low inventory of smelters continue the strong reality. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to the strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but the high oil price itself is beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. It will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Observe cautiously and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance at low prices and the downstream inventory situation [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly output is 78,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3745 tons (+5.0%). The weekly outputs of Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are 280, 3584, 50,988, 8239, and 7140 tons respectively, and the output in Xinjiang has increased slightly. The total number of open furnaces is 209, a week - on - week increase of 1, and the furnace opening rate is 26%. Among them, there is one new open furnace in Xinjiang and one shut - down furnace in Inner Mongolia. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon is 553,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1000 tons, and the social inventory is stable at a high level. The warehouse receipt inventory is 21,668, a week - on - week decrease of 308, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to be low. Under the situation

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the report's investment rating for the industry in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices have turned to wide - range fluctuations. The palm oil price will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and its trend will highly depend on the persistence of crude oil prices, the implementation of the US RVO policy, and the domestic inventory depletion rhythm. [5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend** - Short - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Medium - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bullish [5][6] - Reference view: Oscillatory and bullish [5][6] - **Core Logic** - The recent US soybean market has been oscillatory and bullish, driven by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical risks in the Middle East that have pushed up the prices of US agricultural products, but there are still concerns about fuel and fertilizer costs. [5] - In the domestic soybean market, the core game focuses on the near - month supply. Delayed arrival of imported soybeans and limited oil mill operations have led to low soybean meal inventories, strong price - holding intentions of oil mills, and firm spot prices supporting futures prices. [5] - Imports may tighten from March to April, downstream replenishment is active, and提货量 is high, increasing spot liquidity. [5] - The increase in soybean import costs and high spot basis have increased the terminal's purchasing willingness, but the accelerating decline in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm of farmers for feed input, which is unfavorable for the demand of protein meal. [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend** - Short - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Medium - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bearish [6][7] - Reference view: Oscillatory and bearish [6][7] - **Core Logic** - In the first half of March, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 28.3% and production decreased by 5.28%, continuing the de - stocking process. The El Nino warning may increase the risk of drought - induced production cuts. The MPOC expects the short - term crude palm oil price to remain above 4,450 Malaysian ringgit, supported by energy prices and the palm oil - gasoline price difference, but uncertainties in the Middle East may delay purchases and limit price increases. [7] - The palm oil market is in a fierce game between strong expectations and weak reality. Fluctuations in international crude oil, origin policies, and biodiesel themes provide emotional and cost support, but the fundamentals of high domestic inventory and weak consumption continue to drag down the market. [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the oil and gas sector in the A-share market, primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and market reactions to statements made by U.S. President Trump regarding oil sanctions and potential releases from strategic reserves by the G7 countries [5][6]. Group 1: Market Reaction - A large number of oil and gas stocks opened lower, with several hitting the daily limit down, including companies like Zhongjie Oil and Shandong Molong [3][4]. - The international oil prices experienced a drastic drop, with Brent crude and NYMEX crude futures falling by 10% in a single trading session [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Trump's announcement to lift some oil-related sanctions aims to stabilize oil prices amid market turmoil caused by U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that G7 discussions included the possibility of releasing emergency oil reserves, with member countries holding over 1.2 billion barrels in reserves [6]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The core trading focus for oil currently revolves around Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, with analysts suggesting that prolonged conflicts could significantly impact oil supply and prices [7]. - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil exports, sees an average daily flow of 19.47 million barrels, accounting for about 20% of global oil consumption [9]. Group 4: Production Adjustments - Iraq and Kuwait have begun preventive production cuts due to storage capacity issues, with a total expected reduction of 3.3 million barrels per day [10]. - The speed and difficulty of resuming production after cuts can vary significantly based on the reasons for the shutdown, which adds to the uncertainty of supply recovery [10]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs projected a significant oversupply pressure in the global oil and gas market by 2026, although current geopolitical factors may lead to price volatility that overshadows fundamental analysis [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of SHFE rubber (RU) 2605 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and weak, and the reference view is volatile and weak. The short - term view of synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is volatile and strong, the intraday view is volatile and weak, and the reference view is volatile and weak [1]. - Due to the reduction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the sharp decline of international crude oil futures prices, and the weakening of the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities, along with inflation expectations and the possible end of the global central bank interest - rate cut cycle, the liquidity tightening expectation is strengthened. Coupled with the approaching of a new rubber - tapping period, it is expected that SHFE rubber and synthetic rubber will maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [5][7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs SHFE Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and weak; Reference: volatile and weak [1]. - **Core Logic**: After Trump's statement on the possible end of the war with Iran, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cooled rapidly, the international crude oil prices dropped significantly, weakening the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to inflation expectations and a possible end of the global central bank interest - rate cut cycle, strengthening the expectation of liquidity tightening. With a new rubber - tapping period approaching, the SHFE rubber 2605 contract showed a volatile and weak trend on Monday night and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: volatile and strong; Medium - term: volatile and strong; Intraday: volatile and weak; Reference: volatile and weak [1]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to SHFE rubber, due to the reduction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the sharp decline of international crude oil prices, and the weakening of the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities, along with inflation expectations and the possible end of the global central bank interest - rate cut cycle, the liquidity tightening expectation is strengthened. The synthetic rubber 2605 contract showed a high - level correction on Monday night and is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the unexpected decrease in US non - farm payrolls in February and the rise in the unemployment rate initially strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, but the Middle - East geopolitical war led to a sharp increase in energy prices and global inflation expectations, causing a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February decreased, and the overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has cooled, with short - term stock indices likely to correct [4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term; black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may oscillate in the short term; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term; and different industries within each asset class also have their own characteristics [4]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000 unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Middle - East geopolitical war led to reduced production in oil - producing countries, a sharp increase in energy prices, and a short - term rise in global inflation expectations, along with an increase in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a significant decline in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic sentiment. The overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility and are recommended for short - term cautious observation; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term and are also recommended for cautious observation; black metals and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious observation; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions; precious metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions [4]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as chemicals, pork, and agricultural products, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to the slowdown in economic sentiment and the focus on Middle - East geopolitical risks, short - term stock indices may correct. It is recommended for short - term cautious observation [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,151.16 yuan/gram, up 0.89%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21,692 yuan/kg, up 2.39%. Spot gold and silver also rose. However, the increase in energy prices and the rise in the US dollar index have a certain suppressing effect on precious metals. It is recommended for short - term cautious long - positions [6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. The real - world demand remains weak, and the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. Supply will continue to remain high in the future. It is recommended to view the steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [7][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded to varying degrees last Friday. The daily output of molten iron decreased due to the northern production restrictions during the Two Sessions. The current supply is in the off - season. It is recommended to view the iron ore price with an interval - oscillation mindset [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday, and the futures prices showed a strong trend. The export restrictions on South African manganese ore and the rebound in thermal coal prices boosted the silicon manganese market. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a rebound mindset [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5 - 5%, indicating a rational and moderate - stimulus economic policy. The demand during the peak season needs to be verified. The refined copper production is at a record - high level, and the inventory has been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but a short - term sufficiency [10]. - **Aluminum**: The overnight performance was weak on Friday, but the price recovered during the day. The conflict is expected to support the aluminum price, but the medium - term trend is relatively cautious due to the restart of European smelters and high domestic production [11]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. The domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover. The demand is not optimistic, and the inventory has increased [12]. - **Lead**: The global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, and the price will continue to oscillate widely but be weak overall [12]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory is much higher than in previous years. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are limited [13]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally. The supply will increase as the mines in Myanmar resume production. The demand is differentiated, and the price may continue to be weak in the short term [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply and demand are both strong, but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and cautious observation is recommended [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the cost support [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in February decreased, and the inventory has been accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a substantial increase in oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to subsequent geopolitical developments, and short - term protection can be achieved through put options [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has followed the rise in oil prices. The release of floating storage of sanctioned oil may relieve the pressure on raw material prices. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing short - term support. The short - term absolute price will continue to follow crude oil [17]. - **PX**: The price of PX has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The terminal start - up rate has rebounded, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the short term [18]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The position has increased significantly, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the later stage. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and downstream inventory [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has followed the rise in oil prices, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be less than that of PTA and other varieties, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has followed the energy and chemical sector and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the increase in peak - season orders [19][20]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about the supply shortage due to the decrease in imports. The domestic production enthusiasm is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of downstream shutdown [20]. - **PP**: Affected by downstream replenishment and supply concerns, the inventory has decreased rapidly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [20]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream demand has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support is strong, but attention should be paid to the abnormal fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitics [20]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The geopolitical conflict may support the price of US soybeans, which are under pressure from the South American harvest [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has broken through and strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the domestic high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals may suppress the spot price. The supply of rapeseed will increase, and the price may fluctuate [22]. - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in oil prices has boosted the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the price of oils and fats. Palm oil may have a phased bull market, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to strengthen synchronously [23]. - **Corn**: The price increase of corn has slowed down. The supply may increase, which may limit the upside risk preference [24]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the industry is expected to clear excess capacity. The price is expected to remain at the bottom in March [24].