1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, strong operation, and a significant rise. The closing price increased by 3.90% to 17,030 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 200 yuan/ton. The rubber market has re - entered a bullish trend, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, volatile and upward - biased, and a significant rise. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,297 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,222 yuan/ton, and the closing price increased by 3.02% to 2,285 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have enhanced the methanol premium, driving the methanol price to stabilize and strengthen. It is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, gapping up, and strong operation. The futures price reached a maximum of 495.0 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 484.3 yuan/barrel, and the closing price increased by 6.18% to 493.3 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated again, the crude oil premium has significantly increased. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a high - level and upward - biased posture in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. Bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, most tire enterprises shut down, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. Production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, and both decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% month - on - month respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the LPI was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points but still in the expansion range. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in January, a significant year - on - year increase of about 39%, and it is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.68%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.50%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.11%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,300 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week and 1.62% month - on - month. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 43,600 tons. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,300 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 969,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a slight week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change in Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,950 yuan/ton | +700 yuan/ton | 17,030 yuan/ton | +715 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | +98 yuan/ton | 2,285 yuan/ton | +97 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.1 yuan/barrel | +23.4 yuan/barrel | 493.3 yuan/barrel | +32.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.2 yuan/barrel | - 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as the rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][23]. - **Methanol**: The report contains charts of the methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The report has charts of the crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][48][50].

Core Viewpoint - China National Pharmaceutical Group (国药控股) experienced a decline on February 20, 2026, primarily due to short-term market sentiment, liquidity factors, and industry environment [1] Stock Performance - On February 20, the stock opened at HKD 20.60, down 4.1% from the previous closing price of HKD 21.48, with an intraday low of HKD 20.60. The closing price was HKD 20.98, reflecting a daily decline of 2.33% and a trading volume of approximately HKD 1.00 billion. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10%, with the pharmaceutical distribution sector declining by 5.13%, making China National Pharmaceutical Group one of the worst performers among Hang Seng Index constituents [2] Reasons for Stock Price Movement - Liquidity vacuum amplified selling pressure: The southbound trading (港股通) was closed on that day, preventing mainland funds from entering the market, leading to weak buying interest. A small amount of selling pressure caused a rapid decline in stock price, particularly evident in the pharmaceutical sector [3] - Industry policy and performance expectations were lackluster: No positive developments were observed in the pharmaceutical industry during the Spring Festival holiday, and concerns about policy adjustments, such as volume-based procurement, persisted. Additionally, the company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 2.47%, although net profit slightly increased by 0.53%, leading to investor skepticism regarding short-term performance improvement [3] - Weight stocks dragged down and sector rotation occurred: Funds shifted from high-valuation sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology to defensive sectors such as energy and real estate, resulting in concentrated selling of China National Pharmaceutical Group as a pharmaceutical heavyweight. Concurrently, major tech stocks like Baidu and Alibaba also experienced significant declines, exacerbating market risk aversion [3] - External market transmission: Chinese concept stocks in the U.S. experienced widespread declines during the Spring Festival holiday, leading to a correction in the Hong Kong market. This was compounded by delayed expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, putting pressure on global growth stock valuations [3] Capital and Technical Analysis - Capital flow: Southbound funds have been consistently reducing holdings, with a net reduction of 3.45 million shares on February 12 and a cumulative net reduction of 33.64 million shares over the past 20 trading days. However, Lazard Asset Management increased its holdings by 1.163 million shares on February 2, raising its stake to 11.06% [4] - Technical indicators: The stock price fell below the 20-day moving average (HKD 21.037), with the MACD histogram turning negative at -0.041 and the KDJ J-line dropping to 53.64, indicating weak short-term momentum [4] Future Development - Recent strategic actions include a partnership with Betta Pharmaceuticals (贝达药业) focused on supply chain optimization as of January 4, 2026. However, the medical device distribution business continues to be impacted by centralized procurement, and overall performance recovery will depend on subsequent policy and demand changes [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market of asphalt is generally stable, and the pattern of weak supply and demand continues. Near the Spring Festival, the spot market of asphalt has weak supply and demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is rather dull. The energy and chemical sectors, including asphalt, may be repeatedly disturbed by news due to the unresolved geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Domestic refineries are preparing for raw material switching after March, and there is no absolute bottleneck in raw material substitution, but cost increase is inevitable. If the Middle East situation deteriorates, the supply of substitute raw materials will face greater threats, and there are still upward risks in the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On February 10, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,343 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0 yuan/ton or 0% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The position was 57,736 lots, a decrease of 9,679 lots compared to the previous period, and the trading volume was 82,908 lots, a decrease of 39,924 lots compared to the previous period [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,506 - 3,600 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,180 - 3,240 yuan/ton; South China: 3,290 - 3,350 yuan/ton; East China: 3,250 - 3,280 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in Shandong decreased, and that in Sichuan and Chongqing increased, while the spot prices in other regions were generally stable [1][2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the Spring Festival. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

周五的强势V反，为下周黄金奠定多头基础。多重利好共振下，下周黄金涨势明确，短期回落都是上车机会。基本面支撑强劲：美国ADP不及预期，降息预 期强化，美元走弱利好黄金。中东地缘风险持续，避险买需随时升温，叠加全球央行购金潮延续、黄金供需缺口扩大，中长期托底金价。美联储议息会议临 近，政策面难现强鹰派信号，进一步为黄金提供支撑。 技术面来看黄金站稳4650强支撑，反弹成交量放大，RSI指标从超卖区回升，技术面修复向好。前期空头平仓盘出清，机构抄底、ETF持仓边际回流，资金 面多空转换完成，4800是短期新的支撑。 周一短期关注4850-30支撑轻仓跟进多，意外见4700还是多。上方目标先看4950-5000关口，突破后顺势上看。不充分回调不做多，耐心等待回落上车机会。 【涨势已定，回落做多为主】 下周需要关注非农数据、美联储官员讲话及中东局势动态，短期可能引发小幅震荡，但不改变整体涨势。保持理性，坚持回落做多，黄金长期以来的趋势都 是涨，顺势跟进为主，死也要死在多头上，趋势在李槿在。 寒雪梅中尽，春风柳上归。本周黄金大起大落走出过山车，先是美联储人事鹰派预期升温，美元走强，黄金跌近4402后，因机构抄底+空头回补 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to 16,360 yuan/ton, and the price at the close was slightly down 1.09% to 16,360 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 135 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall rise and fall of the energy - chemical sector, the Shanghai rubber futures closed lower under pressure, and it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a high - level shock trend in the future [5]. - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, rising and then falling, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The highest price of the contract rose to 2,394 yuan/ton, and the lowest price dropped to 2,302 yuan/ton. The price at the close was slightly down 0.64% to 2,320 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 24 yuan/ton. With the emergence of differences between long and short positions, the methanol futures may maintain a high - level shock trend [5]. - On Friday, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly rising. The highest price of the contract rose to 499.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest price dropped to 465.8 yuan/barrel. The price at the close was slightly up 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensifies again, the crude oil premium rebounds, and the short - term oil price maintains a pattern of shock and strength [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [7]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule was slightly increased, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control phenomena, dragging the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [7]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [8]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, reaching 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. At the same time, in terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 200 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [11]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, an increase of 34.07%. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 95.12% [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | - 330 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 32 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | + 32 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 470.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 20.0 yuan/barrel | + 1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][18][21][23][25]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30][32][34][36]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][39][41][43][45].

Group 1: PX Industry - The PX industry in China saw a month-on-month load decrease of 1.5% to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6% to 80.6% [3][15] - Domestic industry load is at a historical high for the same period, with the announced maintenance plans for January to March being weaker than in previous years, and overseas plants planning to increase loads, indicating overall supply is expected to remain ample [3][15] - The demand side is pressured by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, leading to a forecast of a loose supply-demand balance for PX [3][15] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly, which may provide some support for oil prices, but the underlying risks remain, continuing to support the PX market [3][15] - The PX May futures price is expected to follow oil price adjustments, with a support area around 6950-7050 where buying opportunities may be considered [3][15] Group 2: PTA Industry - The PTA industry experienced a month-on-month load decrease of 1.9% to 76.3%, which is at a historically low level for the same period, compounded by numerous maintenance plans in the first quarter [4][16] - The overall atmosphere for new orders is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates for terminal factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [4][16] - The PTA market is expected to face inventory pressure in the first quarter due to weak terminal demand and potential reductions in polyester production [4][16] - The PTA May futures price is anticipated to follow oil price adjustments, with strong support expected below the 5000 mark [4][16] Group 3: EG Industry - The domestic ethylene glycol (EG) industry saw a month-on-month load increase of 0.5% to 74.4%, with synthetic gas production load increasing by 1.6% to 80.2%, remaining at a historical high [5][17] - Despite high shipping costs and potential reductions in imports due to Middle Eastern maintenance, domestic supply remains ample, leading to overall supply pressure [5][17] - Weak new order performance and declining operating rates in terminal factories are expected to lead to inventory accumulation in January, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure [5][17] Group 4: PF Industry - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels, while the industry operating rate remains high [6][18] - Demand is expected to weaken as downstream yarn enterprises enter a cautious purchasing phase due to cash flow pressures, leading to a reduction in production loads [6][18] - The PF March futures price is expected to fluctuate in line with raw material prices, with ongoing pressure from weak terminal demand [6][18] Group 5: PR Industry - The bottle-grade PET industry load decreased by 6.4% to 68.4%, with the industry operating load at a historically low level, and further maintenance plans expected to continue the supply contraction [7][19] - The current period is characterized by a traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [7][19] - The PR March futures price is expected to fluctuate with raw material prices, with short-term strategies suggesting a preference for PR over PF [7][19] Group 6: Soda Ash Industry - Recent soda ash futures saw a slight decline, with stable spot prices, while market sentiment weakened [8][20] - Soda ash production increased by 22,000 tons to 775,000 tons, leading to increased supply pressure [8][20] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with inventory levels rising, indicating a potential for ongoing supply-demand imbalance [8][20] Group 7: Glass Industry - Glass futures experienced a slight increase, with stable spot prices and marginal improvements in the supply-demand balance [10][22] - Recent glass production saw a slight increase, with improved purchasing activity from downstream sectors leading to a decrease in inventory levels [10][22] - The glass market is expected to remain under seasonal demand pressure, with prices anticipated to fluctuate [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook with low operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading feasibility [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short-term equilibrium with low operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with limited trading potential [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the energy market is bearish, mainly due to geopolitical risk mitigation and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] - The impact of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza on the market needs continuous attention, especially its influence on the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.45% intraday [2] - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza eases geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2] - The marginal increase in surplus pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year remains the main trading theme, so a bearish approach is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The breakthrough in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiation causes the decline of geopolitical risk premium, leading to the drop of crude oil and fuel oil prices [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by damaged devices and refinery seasonal maintenance in the short term, but supply pressure may emerge in the medium term [3] - The high-sulfur marine fuel demand may be suppressed if the Red Sea resumes navigation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure and weak demand, with a loose supply-demand pattern [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory lower than before the holiday [4] - A refinery postponed its maintenance and started it from mid-October to mid-November [4] - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance and is under pressure due to the weakening cost end [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future production increase of OPEC+ intensifies the supply pressure of overseas associated gas [5] - The CP price cut in Saudi Arabia in October exceeds market expectations, leading to a decline in import costs [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand after the holiday [5] - LPG is under short-term pressure, and the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops needs attention [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being 'oscillation','oscillation', and 'oscillation and weakening' respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract closed sharply down 2.87% to 480.3 yuan/barrel on the overnight session on Monday, and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The end of the conflict between Israel and Qatar announced by US President Trump and the potential cooling of the Israel - Palestine conflict with the approval of Arab countries have led to a significant reduction in Middle East geopolitical risks, causing the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures to decline weakly on the overnight session on Monday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The main reason is the intensification of Middle East geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract rose 1.10% to 488.9 yuan/barrel in the night session on Monday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Middle East geopolitical risks have re - emerged. On Monday afternoon, there were reports that the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked an Israeli oil tanker as retaliation for the Israeli air strikes on Yemeni Houthi officials. The Yemeni Houthi rebels also emphasized that they would escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel in the future, which increased the expectation of Middle East geopolitical conflict risks and led to a recovery in crude oil premiums [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on asphalt, suggesting a strategy of buying the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to factors such as the continued recovery of asphalt production, approaching peak season, recent rise in crude oil prices, and the expectation of increased demand, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South. National asphalt shipments decreased by 4.67% to 249,000 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise slightly this week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Geopolitical and market factors: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran. Global trade war concerns have subsided somewhat, but the threat remains. Crude oil prices have risen recently. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.74% to 3,655 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,629 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,665 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,364 to 228,073 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 175 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Sinochem Quanzhou has intermittent production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared to January - April 2025. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, an improvement from - 0.4% in January - May. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, a decline from 5.6% in January - May [4] - Downstream operating rates: As of the week ending July 18, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - Fiscal policy and social financing: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, and new loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171 billion yuan [4] Inventory - As of the week ending July 18, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.1 percentage points to 17.0% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]