Group 1 - The central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [4] - The meeting minutes indicate that employment growth remains low, while the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization, and inflation levels are still high [4] - The Federal Reserve is committed to achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging high uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] Group 2 - According to CME's "FedWatch," there is an 86.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by March, with a 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 24.1%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 74%, and the chance of a 50 basis point cut is only 2.0% [5] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan's central parity against the US dollar was reported at 6.9771, reflecting a decrease of 16 points [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [3][8] - Current indicators suggest that employment growth remains low, while the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization. Inflation levels are still high [3][8] - The Federal Reserve is committed to achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate due to high economic uncertainty [3][8] Group 2 - As per CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate unchanged until March is 86.5%, with a 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4][9] - The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 24.1%, while the likelihood of maintaining the rate unchanged is 74%, and the chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 2.0% [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that the rise of stablecoins may lower the U.S. neutral interest rate, known as "r-star," and advocates for interest rate cuts to avoid hindering economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The proliferation of stablecoins could lead to a decrease in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate by approximately 0.4 percentage points [1]. - Stablecoins are increasing the demand for U.S. Treasury securities and other dollar-denominated liquid assets, a trend expected to continue [1][2]. - Even conservative estimates of stablecoin growth indicate an increase in the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, which would further lower the neutral interest rate [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - Milan has consistently advocated for a series of rapid interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points to align the policy rate closer to his estimate of the neutral rate [3]. - He believes the current neutral interest rate is significantly lower than most of his colleagues' estimates, indicating that the Federal Reserve's current policy stance is overly restrictive and burdensome for the economy [3]. - Milan cites various factors, including changes in immigration policy and tariffs, as additional evidence supporting his view that the neutral interest rate has declined [3].

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates function independently from the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, indicating a disconnect between the two financial metrics [1] Group 1 - Mortgage rates are influenced by various factors beyond the Fed's interest rate, suggesting that changes in the benchmark may not directly affect mortgage costs [1]

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 33,462 kilograms, with an increase of 2,199 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 772.70 CNY per gram, with a highest price of 775.8 CNY and a lowest price of 770.84 CNY, currently at 773.78 CNY, reflecting a rise of 0.42% [1] - Trading volume reached 206,379 contracts, with open interest increasing by 1,698 contracts to a total of 214,105 contracts [1] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% in July, with a 97% probability of no change according to CME FedWatch tool [2] - Concerns have arisen regarding the traditional independence of the Federal Reserve due to pressure from former President Trump on Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump seems to have abandoned the idea of attempting to remove Powell for now [2] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China regarding tariff ceasefire are set to continue, with a deadline in two weeks, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet downplayed expectations of Trump rejecting any extension [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, questions the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the Fed's benchmark rate is "too high" [2] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - Yellen hints at the possibility of filling two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board next year, despite Jerome Powell's term as a governor lasting until 2028 [2] Group 2 - The Treasury has been using special accounting measures to pay federal obligations within the statutory limit since January, and once the tax and spending bill is signed into law, it is expected that the Treasury will increase the issuance of U.S. debt to replenish its cash reserves [3] - Yellen indicates that the debt management process is systematic but will consider unexpected circumstances, particularly in light of the two-year Treasury yield suggesting high overnight rates [3] - The next quarterly refinancing operation is scheduled for July 30, which typically announces adjustments to the issuance strategy [3]