据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为13.5%，维持利率不变的概率为86.5%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为24.1%，维持利率不变的概率为74%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 2.0%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 1月29日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9771，下调16点。 美联储宣布维持基准利率不变 符合市场预期 当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处 于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长 期通胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为 支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月29日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9771，下调16点。 美联储宣布维持基准利率不变 符合市场预期 当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处 于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长 期通胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为 支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为86.5% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为13.5%，维持利率不变的概率为86.5%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为24.1%，维持利率不变的概率为74%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 2.0%。 责任编辑：郭建 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月29日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9771，下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that the rise of stablecoins may lower the U.S. neutral interest rate, known as "r-star," and advocates for interest rate cuts to avoid hindering economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The proliferation of stablecoins could lead to a decrease in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate by approximately 0.4 percentage points [1]. - Stablecoins are increasing the demand for U.S. Treasury securities and other dollar-denominated liquid assets, a trend expected to continue [1][2]. - Even conservative estimates of stablecoin growth indicate an increase in the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, which would further lower the neutral interest rate [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - Milan has consistently advocated for a series of rapid interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points to align the policy rate closer to his estimate of the neutral rate [3]. - He believes the current neutral interest rate is significantly lower than most of his colleagues' estimates, indicating that the Federal Reserve's current policy stance is overly restrictive and burdensome for the economy [3]. - Milan cites various factors, including changes in immigration policy and tariffs, as additional evidence supporting his view that the neutral interest rate has declined [3].

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates function independently from the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, indicating a disconnect between the two financial metrics [1] Group 1 - Mortgage rates are influenced by various factors beyond the Fed's interest rate, suggesting that changes in the benchmark may not directly affect mortgage costs [1]

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 33,462 kilograms, with an increase of 2,199 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 772.70 CNY per gram, with a highest price of 775.8 CNY and a lowest price of 770.84 CNY, currently at 773.78 CNY, reflecting a rise of 0.42% [1] - Trading volume reached 206,379 contracts, with open interest increasing by 1,698 contracts to a total of 214,105 contracts [1] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% in July, with a 97% probability of no change according to CME FedWatch tool [2] - Concerns have arisen regarding the traditional independence of the Federal Reserve due to pressure from former President Trump on Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump seems to have abandoned the idea of attempting to remove Powell for now [2] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China regarding tariff ceasefire are set to continue, with a deadline in two weeks, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet downplayed expectations of Trump rejecting any extension [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, questions the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the Fed's benchmark rate is "too high" [2] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - Yellen hints at the possibility of filling two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board next year, despite Jerome Powell's term as a governor lasting until 2028 [2] Group 2 - The Treasury has been using special accounting measures to pay federal obligations within the statutory limit since January, and once the tax and spending bill is signed into law, it is expected that the Treasury will increase the issuance of U.S. debt to replenish its cash reserves [3] - Yellen indicates that the debt management process is systematic but will consider unexpected circumstances, particularly in light of the two-year Treasury yield suggesting high overnight rates [3] - The next quarterly refinancing operation is scheduled for July 30, which typically announces adjustments to the issuance strategy [3]