劳动力分析公司RevelioLabs上周数据显示，10月美国就业岗位减少9100个，政府部门裁员22200人。芝加哥联储更预估上月失业率小幅攀升，表明劳动力市 场持续恶化。 这进一步强化了市场对美联储鸽派政策的预期，周二拖累美元跌至近两周低点，助推无收益黄金延续突破4100美元关口的涨势。然而，乐观的市场情绪对这 种避险商品构成阻力。 金价在4100美元关键支撑位下方再度显现韧性 周三金价吸引逢低买盘，因市场担忧美国经济动能减弱。美联储降息预期持续压制美元，同时为这种无收益商品提供支撑。当前盛行的风险偏好情绪可能抑 制XAU/USD多头进一步布局。 周三欧洲时段前半段，金价（XAU/USD）自4100美元下方小幅反弹后持续走高，逼近三周高点。受美联储鸽派预期及美国政府长期停摆引发的经济动能疲 软担忧影响，美元（USD）持续承压，难以吸引实质性买盘。这成为持续利好无收益黄金的关键因素。 与此同时，美国政府重启的积极进展仍支撑风险偏好情绪，可能抑制交易员对避险黄金的激进看涨押注。但基本面背景表明，XAU/USD组合的下行路径阻 力最小。因此任何修正性回调仍可视为买入良机，因交易员正期待多位有影响力的美联储公开市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut of the year during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, indicating a shift towards a dovish stance in response to economic risks [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance - Citi's analysis indicates that the current market pricing of the terminal interest rate is below levels suggested by inflation and growth indicators, reflecting a clear dovish policy stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The constructed Federal Reserve policy stance indicator is currently at a low level, suggesting that the market's pricing is "overly accommodative" relative to the fundamentals [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Risks and Labor Market - The dovish stance is based on concerns regarding future economic risks, particularly signs of weakness in the labor market, including rising unemployment rates and longer durations of unemployment [3]. Group 3: Gold and Risk Assets Correlation - In a policy-driven "fiscal dominance" environment, the correlation between gold and risk assets (such as the S&P 500 and Nikkei indices) is expected to become more positive than currently priced in by the market [5]. - There is a significant deviation between the implied correlation of gold and risk assets in the options market and the historical realized correlation during similar dovish environments, indicating that the market has not fully absorbed this shift [5]. Group 4: Gold as a Hedge - Gold is often misperceived as a traditional safe-haven asset; however, its relationship with bond yields is structurally unstable, which undermines its role as a pure hedge [7]. - In the current context of the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance to address potential economic risks, gold's properties make it likely to perform well, supporting the rationale for a "gold up + stocks up" combination [7].