吴说获悉，Fundstrat 联合创始人 Tom Lee 接受 CNBC 采访中表示，对于 2026 年市场展望 ，Tom Lee 预 计美联储将采取更为鸽派的政策，这将提振企业信心，并推动 ISM 制造业指数升至 50 以上（表明经济 扩张）。这将为工业、能源和基础材料等周期性行业带来利好。他还指出，金融业是人工智能和区块链 技术的主要受益者，这些技术将有助于减少人力密集型运营，从而扩大利润率。在美联储的支持性政策 环境下，传统行业将出现复苏，科技驱动的金融效率也将得到提升。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

Group 1 - Gold prices attracted dip-buying due to concerns over weakening U.S. economic momentum, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continuing to pressure the dollar and support non-yielding gold [1][2] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has raised worries about deteriorating fiscal outlook and economic momentum, with economists estimating a potential reduction in quarterly GDP growth by approximately 1.5%-2.0% [1] - The labor market continues to show signs of deterioration, with a reported decrease of 9,100 jobs in October and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy [2] Group 2 - The XAU/USD pair is showing resilience below the key support level of $4,100, with potential upward movement if buying pressure can break through the $4,150-$4,155 range [3][5] - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices can decisively break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $4,200, it could pave the way for further short-term appreciation [5] - Conversely, immediate support is seen in the $4,100-$4,095 area, with critical support at $4,075; a breakdown below this level could trigger technical selling and push prices down towards $4,000 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut of the year during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, indicating a shift towards a dovish stance in response to economic risks [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance - Citi's analysis indicates that the current market pricing of the terminal interest rate is below levels suggested by inflation and growth indicators, reflecting a clear dovish policy stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The constructed Federal Reserve policy stance indicator is currently at a low level, suggesting that the market's pricing is "overly accommodative" relative to the fundamentals [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Risks and Labor Market - The dovish stance is based on concerns regarding future economic risks, particularly signs of weakness in the labor market, including rising unemployment rates and longer durations of unemployment [3]. Group 3: Gold and Risk Assets Correlation - In a policy-driven "fiscal dominance" environment, the correlation between gold and risk assets (such as the S&P 500 and Nikkei indices) is expected to become more positive than currently priced in by the market [5]. - There is a significant deviation between the implied correlation of gold and risk assets in the options market and the historical realized correlation during similar dovish environments, indicating that the market has not fully absorbed this shift [5]. Group 4: Gold as a Hedge - Gold is often misperceived as a traditional safe-haven asset; however, its relationship with bond yields is structurally unstable, which undermines its role as a pure hedge [7]. - In the current context of the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance to address potential economic risks, gold's properties make it likely to perform well, supporting the rationale for a "gold up + stocks up" combination [7].