Group 1: US-China Relations - The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on October 30, 2025, in Busan focused on enhancing economic cooperation and addressing trade issues [2] - Both sides agreed to expedite the implementation of previously reached consensus and maintain effective communication to reduce uncertainties in bilateral relations [2][3] Group 2: Trade Agreements - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariffs will remain suspended for another year, with corresponding adjustments from China [3] - The US will pause the implementation of its 50% export control rules for a year, while China will also suspend its related measures for the same duration [3] - Both parties agreed to extend certain tariff exclusions and confirmed cooperation on fentanyl control and agricultural trade [3] Group 3: US Stock Market Outlook - The core driver of the recent rise in the US stock market has returned to corporate fundamentals, with significant gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices since October 10, 2025 [4] - The earnings growth expectations for major tech companies have been revised upwards, contributing to the positive market sentiment [4] - The successful meeting between the US and Chinese leaders is expected to further alleviate geopolitical risks, enhancing the investment appeal of the US stock market, particularly in the tech sector [4] Group 4: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see an upward shift in risk appetite, with a focus on raw materials, sectors benefiting from exports to the US, and industries that may gain from RMB appreciation [5][6] - The recent negotiations have led to a recovery in the Hong Kong market, which had previously suffered from concerns over export controls and potential tariffs [5][6] - Historical trends suggest that a stabilization in US-China relations could lead to a rebound in the RMB, positively impacting sectors like aviation and paper manufacturing [6]

Macro Perspective - The recent rebound in US stocks has led to market divergence regarding future trends, with macroeconomic data from July showing stability but not significantly altering the fact that the US economy is slightly weakening [1] - Despite better-than-expected PMI and non-farm data in July, the overall economic trend remains weak due to external trade policy changes and other soft data [2] Tariff Impact - The introduction of reciprocal tariffs is expected to create a window for observing changes in capital flows in the third quarter, with potential for further capital inflow into US stocks in the fourth quarter [2] - The reciprocal tariff strategy primarily targets transshipment trade and may not apply to tariff issues with other developed countries, with a key decision point on August 1 [2] Valuation and Liquidity - US stock valuations remain relatively high, with many sectors trading above their 5-year and 10-year averages, indicating a potential overvaluation [3] - The "seven sisters" of US stocks have seen their valuation percentile drop to the 50% range, suggesting a slight correction in high valuations [3] Earnings Outlook - Current US stock performance is heavily reliant on earnings, particularly in the information technology and telecommunications sectors, which contribute significantly to the S&P 500's overall earnings [4] - Earnings growth forecasts for Q2 2025 have been revised down from 9.4% to 5.0%, indicating a slowdown in growth expectations due to economic conditions [4]