Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.84% [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day was 867.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 113.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,200 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The marine engineering, aquaculture, photovoltaic, and non-ferrous metal sectors showed the highest gains, while computing hardware, semiconductors, brain-computer interfaces, and diversified finance sectors experienced the largest declines [2] - The marine engineering sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like Deepwater Haina (300961), Dalian Heavy Industry (002204), and Shenkai Co. (002278) hitting the daily limit [2] - Photovoltaic concept stocks also rallied, with Yijing Optoelectronics (600537), Oujing Technology (001269), and Yamaton (002623) reaching the daily limit [2] - The banking sector remained active, with China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching new highs [2] - The non-ferrous metal sector was also active, with Jingyi Co. (002295) hitting the daily limit and Zijin Mining reaching a new high [2] - In contrast, computing hardware and semiconductor stocks collectively declined, with stocks like Blue Arrow Electronics (301348), Taiji Co. (300046), and Kexiang Co. (300903) leading the losses [2] - The diversified finance and digital currency sectors showed weakness, with Aijian Group (600643) hitting the daily limit down, and other stocks like Hongye Futures (001236), Cuiwei Co. (603123), and Lakala (300773) also declining [2] Notable Stocks - The strongest stocks included Chengbang Co. (603316) with five consecutive limits, and several stocks with three consecutive limits such as Kai Mei Teqi (002549) and Xuedilong (002658) [3][4] Hot Sectors - The marine engineering sector was the top performer with 11 stocks hitting the daily limit, while the nuclear power sector had 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [5][6] - The Belt and Road sector also had 10 stocks hitting the daily limit, with notable stocks including Kangda New Materials (002669) and Hailide (002206) [7] Sector Insights - The marine engineering sector is expected to benefit from the emphasis on high-quality development of the marine economy as highlighted in the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting [10] - In the photovoltaic sector, a collective production cut of 30% by major glass manufacturers is anticipated to address supply-demand imbalances, with July's glass supply expected to decrease to 45GW [11] - The non-ferrous metal sector is influenced by renewed discussions on copper tariffs and low LME inventories, with expectations of copper prices remaining strong in the second half of the year [12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" with expectations for overall sector returns to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to improved market sentiment, coupled with increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has positively impacted the non-ferrous metals sector [10][11]. - The anticipated reduction in overseas smelting capacity is gradually materializing, while there are still expectations for reductions in Chinese smelting capacity [3][10]. - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and demand side, a turning point is awaited [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Following the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market focus has shifted to liquidity and the potential impact of U.S. copper tariffs [2][10]. - The market is currently pricing in an implied tariff of approximately 13% on U.S. copper, with potential for further widening of price differentials if tariffs are implemented [10][11]. Supply and Demand - Overseas smelting reductions are expected to lead the way, with notable reductions already seen in facilities such as Glencore's PASAR smelter in the Philippines [10]. - In China, the current TC spot price is at -44.8 USD/dry ton, indicating a tight copper supply situation, further exacerbated by a reduction in guidance from the Kamoa copper mine [10][11]. Price Outlook - Copper prices are expected to rise in the lead-up to the implementation of U.S. tariffs, with the market currently reflecting a 13% tariff expectation [10]. - If monetary and fiscal policies support economic stability, a turning point for copper prices may be on the horizon, despite current uncertainties in the U.S. economy [10][11]. - Demand in China is expected to weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but this is not anticipated to significantly impact copper prices due to low inventory levels [10].