Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the spot gold market experienced volatility following the U.S. CPI data release, leading to both bullish and bearish movements [1] - The analysis suggests that the resistance level to watch is around 3346, which includes pivot points, previous highs, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci levels [1] - If the price does not break above the 3346 resistance, the short-term outlook remains bearish, with a potential decline towards the support level around 3331 [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough above the 3346 resistance could signal a retest of the high points established after the data release [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term trend is differentiated. Gold will continue to fluctuate, and this week the focus is on the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the US inflation data on Wednesday night. London silver remains in a relatively strong state, with the upper target moved up to the 40 area, support at 36.3, and key support at 34.8. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Tuesday, precious metal prices generally fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3344.8 per ounce, down 0.3%; US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.655 per ounce, down 0.38%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 775.06 yuan per gram, down 0.03%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8887 yuan per kilogram, up 0.62% [2]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.1%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 14.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 52.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0%. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.31 tons to 935.91 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 32.52 tons to 14689.5 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 35.4 tons to 1193.7 tons daily; SGX silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347.5 tons in the week ending May 30 [3]. 3.3本周关注 - This week, focus on the US CPI data on Wednesday night. Regarding events, focus on He Lifeng's visit to the UK from June 8 - 13 and the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. US Treasury Secretary Besent will testify before the House Committee this week. At 00:00 on Friday, the Fed will release the "US Quarterly Financial Accounts Report". This week enters the Fed officials' blackout period before the June 19 FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - SHFE gold main continuous contract is at 775.06 yuan per gram, up 0.04%; SGX gold TD is at 772.82 yuan per gram, up 0.1%; CME gold main contract is at $3344.8 per ounce, down 0.06%. SHFE silver main continuous contract is at 8887 yuan per kilogram, down 0.25%; SGX silver TD is at 8882 yuan per kilogram, down 0.07%; CME silver main contract is at $36.655 per ounce, down 0.68%. SHFE - TD gold is at 2.24 yuan per gram, down 17.34%; SHFE - TD silver is at 5 yuan per kilogram, up 90.91%. CME gold - silver ratio is 91.2509, up 0.62% [7]. 3.5库存持仓表 - SHFE gold inventory is 17817 kilograms, down 0.17%; CME gold inventory is 1179.7392 tons, down 0.44%; SHFE gold positions are 170163 lots, down 1.74%; SPDR gold positions are 935.91 tons, down 0.03%. SHFE silver inventory is 1193.716 tons, up 3.06%; CME silver inventory is 15401.8452 tons, up 0.17%; SGX silver inventory is 1347.54 tons, down 3.51%. SHFE silver positions are 465984 lots, down 5.17%; SLV silver positions are 14689.496948 tons, up 0.22% [15][17]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - The US dollar index is 99.0366, up 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1903, up 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 42866.87 points, up 0.25%. WTI crude oil spot is $64.98 per barrel, down 0.47%. LmeS copper 03 is $9725 per ton, down 0.45%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.47%, down 0.45%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is 2.18%, unchanged. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.46%, down 4.17% [22].