聚丙烯：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 本周PP观点：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 供应 周产量变化分析：本周国内聚丙烯产量82.22万吨，相较上周的79.65万吨增加2.57万吨，涨幅3.23%；相较去年同期的66.6万吨增加15.62万 吨，涨幅23.45%。周内广西石化新装置投产，加之部分检修装置恢复开工，聚丙烯损失量数据高位回落，产量数据如期上涨。 周产能利用率变化分析：本期聚丙烯平均产能利用率79.63%，环比上升1.85%；中石化产能利用率77.47%，环比上升1.70%。周内洛阳石化 二线14万吨/年、海南乙烯STPP线30万吨/年等装置重启，使得中石化产能利用率上升。东华能源（张家港）、广西石化二线等装置重启， 使得聚丙烯平均产能利用率上升。 下周来看，东莞巨正源120万吨/年装置计划外停车，云天化、广东石化二线等存检修计划，镇海炼化三线计划重启，聚丙烯计划内检修损 失量预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polypropylene market has returned to the fundamental level and entered a weak and volatile phase. The overall supply is relatively sufficient, the downstream replenishment willingness has declined, and the production profit is expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading idea and beware of callback risks [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's production was 773,300 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week, in line with expectations. There were not many new maintenance devices, and the maintenance losses decreased by 1,700 tons to 160,900 tons. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The import volume remained at 75,000 tons per week, and the export volume was 37,500 tons per week. In June, exports were 235,300 tons, and imports were 243,300 tons, in line with expectations [6] - The upstream overall operating rate increased slightly [6] Demand - This week's apparent demand was 824,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.68%. The domestic apparent demand improved slightly. Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 820,000 tons according to the seasonality [6] - The downstream average operating rate was not provided in the content, and the downstream replenishment willingness has declined. The downstream had replenished a large amount of inventory previously and is currently digesting the inventory [11] Inventory - This week, there was a slight destocking, with the total inventory decreasing by 13,900 tons to 800,500 tons. Next week, it is expected to continue to destock slightly [6] - The upstream inventory decreased by 15,800 tons to 564,800 tons, including a decrease of 16,000 tons in the two - oil inventory to 278,200 tons; the coal - chemical inventory increased by 2,700 tons to 101,100 tons; the PDH inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 74,500 tons; the refinery inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 111,000 tons; and the拉丝 inventory decreased by 33,300 tons to 151,200 tons [6] - The mid - stream inventory increased slightly, with the port inventory increasing by 1,900 tons to 235,700 tons (the port sub - inventory decreased by 4,800 tons to 62,400 tons), and the trader inventory increasing by 6,700 tons to 173,300 tons [6] 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The overall basis showed a volatile and strengthening trend, but the basis trading opportunities were limited. The East China basis increased by 40 points to - 40; the North China basis increased by 70 points to - 50; the South China basis increased by 80 points to 20 [9] Inter - month Spread - The inter - month spread was volatile and weakening. The 1 - 5 inter - month spread decreased by 10 points to - 1, the 5 - 9 inter - month spread increased by 20 points to 26, and the 9 - 1 inter - month spread decreased by 10 points to - 25 [9] Variety Spread - The copolymer -拉丝 spread increased by 80 points to 90, the injection - molding -拉丝 spread remained unchanged at 40, and the pellet - powder spread in North China remained unchanged at 200, while the pellet - powder spread in East China decreased by 60 points to 130 [9] Disk Spread - The PP - 3MA disk spread showed a strengthening trend. The 01 contract increased by 193 points to - 332, the 05 contract increased by 95 points to - 190, and the 09 contract increased by 255 points to - 81. The long - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit the market, and there are no suitable opportunities in the short term [9] - The LL - PP disk spread was volatile this week and is expected to strengthen slightly later. The 01 contract decreased by 8 points to 260, the 05 contract decreased by 14 points to 252, and the 09 contract decreased by 16 points to 219 [9] 3.4 Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - The upstream is in the peak maintenance period, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, with a focus on active shipment [11] - The mid - stream shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. After the disk price declined, some futures - cash arbitrageurs had shipment opportunities [11] - The downstream replenishment willingness has declined as the downstream had replenished a large amount of inventory previously and is currently digesting the inventory [11] Strategies - For the cross - variety strategy, the long - PP and short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit the market [11] - For the unilateral strategy, adopt a weak and volatile trading idea and beware of callback risks [11] - For the options strategy, adopt the strategy of selling call options [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PP2509 oscillates weakly, closing at 7,044 yuan/ton. In the short - term, PP2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on support around 7,000 and pressure around 7,140 [2] - There is a situation of weak supply and demand for PP. In the short - term, the main basis is neutral. At the beginning of July, there are many PP parking devices, and the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure brought by new capacity still exists [2] - The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the orders of products mainly decline. The downstream operating rate of PP may continue the trend of a slight decline [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene is 7,044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the trading volume is 210,887 lots, down 7,959 lots; the open interest is 423,329 lots, down 2,430 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 holders is - 67,671 lots, an increase of 415 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7,404 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) is 909 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) is 879 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton [2] - The duty - paid self - pick - up price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang is 7,220 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene is 796 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the CFR price of propane in the Far East is 549 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars/ton [2] - The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.72 US dollars/barrel, up 0.38 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 572.75 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene in petrochemical enterprises is 79.3%, down 0.54 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene is 49.05%, down 0.58 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in plastic weaving is 43.2%, down 0.36 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in injection molding is 55.43%, down 0.35 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in BOPP is 60.41%, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP pipes is 36.6%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in tape master rolls is 48.95%, down 0.59 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP non - woven fabrics is 36.28%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in CPP is 56.38%, down 0.62 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene is 13.61%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.27%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polypropylene is 10.37%, down 0.42 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the domestic polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from the previous cycle; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.30%, a 0.54% decrease month - on - month [2] - From June 20th to 26th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05% [2] - As of June 25th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 785,800 tons, a decrease of 34,700 tons from the previous period, a 4.23% month - on - month decrease [2]

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-23 免责声明 进一步恶化存疑。短期PP2509预计震荡走势，日度K线关注7190附近支撑与7310附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7200 | 12 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7187 | 2 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)( ...