行情回归基本面，转入偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 77.36 | 77.33 | -0.03 | 78.62 | 79.73 | 本周产量符合预期，新增检修装置不 多多，未来两周装置检修减少，产量 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 可能会小幅回升。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PP2509 oscillates weakly, closing at 7,044 yuan/ton. In the short - term, PP2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on support around 7,000 and pressure around 7,140 [2] - There is a situation of weak supply and demand for PP. In the short - term, the main basis is neutral. At the beginning of July, there are many PP parking devices, and the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure brought by new capacity still exists [2] - The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the orders of products mainly decline. The downstream operating rate of PP may continue the trend of a slight decline [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene is 7,044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the trading volume is 210,887 lots, down 7,959 lots; the open interest is 423,329 lots, down 2,430 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 holders is - 67,671 lots, an increase of 415 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7,404 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) is 909 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) is 879 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton [2] - The duty - paid self - pick - up price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang is 7,220 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene is 796 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the CFR price of propane in the Far East is 549 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars/ton [2] - The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.72 US dollars/barrel, up 0.38 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 572.75 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene in petrochemical enterprises is 79.3%, down 0.54 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene is 49.05%, down 0.58 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in plastic weaving is 43.2%, down 0.36 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in injection molding is 55.43%, down 0.35 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in BOPP is 60.41%, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP pipes is 36.6%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in tape master rolls is 48.95%, down 0.59 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP non - woven fabrics is 36.28%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in CPP is 56.38%, down 0.62 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene is 13.61%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.27%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polypropylene is 10.37%, down 0.42 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the domestic polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from the previous cycle; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.30%, a 0.54% decrease month - on - month [2] - From June 20th to 26th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05% [2] - As of June 25th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 785,800 tons, a decrease of 34,700 tons from the previous period, a 4.23% month - on - month decrease [2]

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-23 免责声明 进一步恶化存疑。短期PP2509预计震荡走势，日度K线关注7190附近支撑与7310附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7200 | 12 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7187 | 2 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)( ...