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2025可控核聚变全球商业化项目进展、技术拆解及产业链布局分析报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-08 02:07
Core Insights - The report discusses the progress and technological advancements in the global commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion, highlighting China's significant role in this competitive landscape [1][10]. Group 1: Global Competition and Technological Advances - The primary goal of controlled nuclear fusion is to replicate the fusion reactions occurring in the sun, achieving stable and controllable energy output on Earth. This requires overcoming the "fusion triple product" threshold, which is the product of plasma temperature, density, and confinement time reaching 10²¹ m⁻³・s・keV [2]. - The ITER project, involving 35 countries and costing over €20 billion, is the largest international nuclear fusion collaboration. By 2025, it will complete the installation of its core coil system, capable of generating a magnetic field of 11.8 Tesla to confine plasma at 150 million degrees Celsius. The project aims to conduct deuterium-tritium fusion experiments by 2034, targeting an energy gain factor of Q=10 [2][3]. - U.S. private companies are making significant strides in commercialization. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) plans to validate Q>1 by 2026 and launch a 200 MW commercial reactor by 2030. Helion Energy has signed the world's first fusion power purchase agreement with Microsoft, promising a 50 MW plant by 2028 and expanding to 250 MW by 2030 [3]. Group 2: China's Breakthroughs and Diverse Approaches - In 2025, China achieved notable breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion, with both state-led and private sector initiatives advancing the "deuterium-tritium + hydrogen-boron" dual approach [4][5]. - The EAST (Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak) successfully maintained 100 million degrees Celsius plasma for 1066 seconds, setting a world record and demonstrating the capability for long-duration plasma confinement, essential for future power generation [4]. - The private sector's "Xuanlong-50U" device achieved significant milestones, including a million-ampere hydrogen-boron plasma discharge and stable operation at 1.2 Tesla for 1.6 seconds, marking a breakthrough in hydrogen-boron fusion technology [5]. Group 3: Diverse Technological Routes and Industry Development - The controlled nuclear fusion field is characterized by multiple technological routes, including magnetic confinement, inertial confinement, and emerging technologies, each with its advantages and challenges [6][7]. - The magnetic confinement route, particularly the tokamak design, remains the most mature, while the field-reversed configuration (FRC) and stellarator designs are also being explored for their potential benefits [6]. - The industry chain for controlled nuclear fusion is developing, with China achieving significant progress in domestic production of superconducting materials and key components for fusion devices, supporting the overall commercialization efforts [8][9]. Group 4: Future Energy Landscape - The global race for controlled nuclear fusion is driven by increasing energy demands and the need for sustainable energy solutions. The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will double by 2050, while fossil fuels face reduction pressures [10]. - Controlled nuclear fusion offers a solution with zero carbon emissions, sustainable raw materials, and stable 24-hour power supply, positioning it as a potential "ultimate energy" source for the future [10].
探访中国“人造太阳”:聚变能研发加速挺进燃烧实验
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-10-16 13:52
Core Insights - China's research on nuclear fusion, referred to as the "artificial sun," is advancing into the burning experiment phase, moving beyond principle exploration and scale experiments [1][3] - The "China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor" (CFETR) is a significant project, with plans to conduct burning plasma experiments by 2027 and to establish a fusion pilot engineering test reactor by 2035, aiming for commercial fusion reactors by 2050 [3][4] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The "China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor" has achieved a plasma current of 1 million amperes and an ion temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius, setting a new record for fusion device operation in China [3][4] - The use of magnetic confinement to control fusion reactions is a key technological approach, with devices like "China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor" and "Xuanlong-50U" employing this method [3][4] Group 2: International Collaboration - China is actively participating in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, contributing to the global effort in fusion energy research by delivering large equipment components and completing core device installation tasks ahead of schedule [6][7] - The contribution of Chinese scientists to the ITER project has been recognized, with ongoing assembly work being highlighted by ITER's Director-General [6][7] Group 3: Market and Investment Landscape - The advancements in fusion energy technology have attracted significant interest from the capital markets, leading to the emergence of various commercial companies exploring fusion commercialization [4][6] - The transition from "catching up" to "keeping pace" in fusion energy research indicates China's growing capabilities and potential to lead in certain technological areas [6]
造太阳的人 ——记核工业西物院新一代人造太阳团队
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-11 22:14
探索未知 人造太阳并不是真的造一个太阳,而是利用太阳发光发热的核聚变原理,来解决人类能源问题。这种以 探索清洁能源为目的的可控核聚变装置,被形象地称为"人造太阳"。 当清晨的第一缕阳光照进核工业西南物理研究院聚变科学所时,新一代人造太阳的"家"开始热闹起来。 这里就像一个大脑的中枢神经系统,大屏幕上的数据像一个个跳动的脉搏。坐在屏幕前,团队成员操 控、记录、观察着"中枢神经"传来的一串串实验数据和图像…… "人造太阳"是要在地球上创造类似太阳内部的环境,模拟它发光发热的过程,并让这种反应持续稳定运 行。火热的事业离不开这支平均年龄只有35岁的科研团队。他们逐梦核聚变前沿,相继取得多项重大科 技突破。 科研工作是一项永无止境的探索和创新,这群追逐太阳的人正在点亮"亿摄氏度"理想。 团队成员白兴宇说:"在可控核聚变领域,解锁'亿摄氏度'高温,需要十八般武艺样样精通。" 今年3月28日,新一代人造太阳"中国环流三号"首次实现原子核温度1.17亿摄氏度、电子温度1.6亿摄氏 度的重大突破。与此同时,还有一大批原创性、前沿性、突破性成果:高功率微波回旋管、高功率中性 束注入加热系统投入运行,首次提出并实现了提高芯部能量 ...
现在的可控核聚变,还有“永远的五十年”这个魔咒吗?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-19 03:08
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the country's strategy for controllable nuclear fusion engineering and commercialization, indicating a three-step investment plan led by national will, focusing on semiconductor and AI development in the short term, infrastructure upgrades through mega projects in the medium term, and a long-term commitment to the energy revolution through controllable nuclear fusion [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was officially established on July 22 in Shanghai, under the leadership of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) [2]. - The company will focus on overall design, technology verification, digital R&D, and the establishment of technology and capital operation platforms [2]. Group 2: Strategic Investment Plan - The national investment plan includes short-term acceleration of semiconductor and AI industries, medium-term infrastructure upgrades led by mega projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station, and long-term investments in controllable nuclear fusion [1][2]. - The roadmap indicates that by 2035, a fusion engineering experimental reactor is expected to achieve an output of 100-200 MW, with grid connection planned around 2050 [1][60]. Group 3: Technological Landscape - Controllable nuclear fusion is categorized into two main approaches: magnetic confinement and inertial confinement, with the Tokamak and stellarator representing magnetic confinement, and laser fusion and Z-pinch representing inertial confinement [1][3]. - The Tokamak route is currently the most mature and mainstream globally, with significant breakthroughs achieved by China, including the "China Circulation No. 3" device reaching temperatures of 117 million degrees Celsius for ions and 160 million degrees Celsius for electrons [1][2]. Group 4: International Comparison - The U.S. National Ignition Facility achieved laser fusion ignition in 2022, but its energy output remains significantly lower than the total energy consumed by the system [1][6]. - Both China and the U.S. are pursuing different technological routes, with China focusing on high-temperature superconducting Tokamak technology due to its rare earth resource advantages, while U.S. companies are increasingly promoting inertial confinement methods [1][2][41]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The commercial progress of controllable nuclear fusion is expected to break free from the "50 years" curse, with initial commercialization potentially achievable within a decade [2][60]. - The private sector is also seeing increased investment, with startups like Energy Singularity aiming to build high-temperature superconducting Tokamak devices by 2027, targeting an energy gain of Q>10 [1][58].