Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is consolidating. In the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable. Fundamentally, the inventory of PE is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. The stabilization of crude oil prices supports the chemical products, and the market has rebounded. With the Fed starting an interest - rate cut cycle and potential for two more cuts this year, the international macro - environment may remain accommodative. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand for polyolefins may support the market to rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7289, and 7299 respectively, with price changes of 11, 14, and - 10, and percentage changes of 0.15%, 0.19%, and - 0.14%. The trading volumes were 146481, 9789, and 15, and the open interests were 520256, 38553, and 32, with changes of - 3780, 193, and 1. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6982, 7017, and 6984 respectively, with price changes of 12, 17, and 7, and percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.24%, and 0.10%. The trading volumes were 183494, 13200, and 371, and the open interests were 570841, 67265, and 1051, with changes of - 10461, 3640, and 201 [2]. - **Spread Changes**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 44, - 10, and 54, compared to previous values of - 41, - 34, and 75. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 35, 33, and 2, compared to previous values of - 30, 23, and 7 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2377 yuan/ton, 6615 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, mostly unchanged from the previous values [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the middle - stream market, for LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News and Evaluation - **Crude Oil Prices**: On Wednesday (September 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.05 per barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.95 per barrel, down $0.52 or 0.76% from the previous trading day [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The polyolefin market saw a rally followed by a decline. From a fundamental perspective, the polyolefin spot market is still driven by supply and demand. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. With the stabilization of crude oil prices, it provides support for chemical products. The market also rebounded after continuous declines. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand may support the market to oscillate and rebound. Future attention should be paid to the potential rebound after the market stabilizes and the situation of the Fed meeting this week [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 7234, up 2 from the day before with a 0.03% increase, trading volume was 256083, and open interest was 524036 with a decrease of 30939. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 41 (previous value - 20) [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 6970, up 4 from the day before with a 0.06% increase, trading volume was 324397, and open interest was 581302 with a decrease of 34852. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 30 (previous value - 22) [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: Methanol futures were at 2377 yuan/ton (previous value 2398), Shandong propylene was at 6575 yuan/ton (previous value 6600), South China propane was at 595 dollars/ton (unchanged), PP recycled materials were at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and North China powder was at 6750 yuan/ton (previous value 6700) [2]. - **Spot Market**: LL in the East China market was priced at 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7700), and PP in the East China market was priced at 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. News - On Tuesday (September 16), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.52 per barrel, up $1.22 or 1.93% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.47 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.53% from the previous trading day [2].

20250915申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7169 | 7181 | 7050 | 6913 | 6936 | 6787 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7209 | 7220 | 7145 | 6939 | 6961 | 6805 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -40 | -39 | -95 | -26 | -25 | -18 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.55% | -0.54% | -1.33% | -0.37% | -0.36% | -0.26% | | 场 | 成交量 | 244355 | 9836 | 1732 | 255093 | 11223 | 528 | | | 持仓量 | 561110 | 35866 | 0 | 643355 | ...