Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of L plastic and PP polypropylene markets are generally weak, with fluctuations affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy. For example, factors like new capacity production, changes in production capacity utilization, and tariff policies all impact the market trends of L and PP [1][5][8]. - The global plastic additive market is on an upward track, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029, which is related to the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. - Various policies and events, such as China's export control of rare earths, US - China tariff disputes, and China's petrochemical industry policies, have certain impacts on the plastic and polypropylene markets [1][6][11]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The prices of L2601 contracts and LLDPE in different regions have shown a downward trend in most cases. For example, on October 13, the L2601 contract closed at 7004 points, down 33 points or 0.47%, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 7000 - 7680 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions falling by 10 - 70 yuan/ton [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contracts and domestic PP market prices have also generally declined. On October 13, the PP2601 contract closed at 6697 points, down 25 points or 0.37%, and the domestic PP market continued to weaken, with a decline of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - **Trade Policy**: On October 9, China legally imposed export controls on some rare earth items, while the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China and upgraded software controls on the 10th, leading to China's strong opposition [1]. - **Industry Policy**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added - value and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [11]. - **Market Forecast**: From 2024 to 2029, the global plastic additive consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, driven by the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. Logical Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: As of last Friday, the new registered L contract warehouse receipts were 66 tons, with a total of 1.28 million tons; the PP contract had no new registered warehouse receipts, with a total of 1.40 million tons. The domestic PE capacity utilization rate increased to 83.9% for 4 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, and the domestic PP capacity utilization rate increased to 77.7% for 3 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2]. - **Cost and Supply**: Brent crude oil rose to $67.6 per barrel in September, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased to 2.827 million tons for 2 consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 16.4%, which is negative for the L - PP spread [12]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: For the L main 01 contract, the strategies include holding long positions, waiting and seeing, or trying long positions at appropriate times. For the PP main 01 contract, strategies include holding short positions, trying short positions, or waiting and seeing [2][6][9]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Hold the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set stop - losses at appropriate positions, or wait and see [2][7][9]. - **Options**: Generally, the strategy is to wait and see [2][7][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The decrease in net imports of domestic polyethylene and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports for three consecutive months are favorable for the L - PP spread, while the narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - The increase in Brent crude oil and domestic PE production has a negative impact on the L and L - PP spread respectively [5]. - The increase in the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI are favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - Downstream demand is in the peak season, but there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Situation - **25 - 10 - 09**: L2601 contract closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. PP2601 contract closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Different regions have different price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. The price ranges in different regions are similar to the previous report [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. Different regions have corresponding price ranges [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: In the plastic spot market, prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. In the PP spot market, prices in different regions were either weak or stable [8]. Important Information - **25 - 10 - 09**: The US federal government shut down due to the breakdown of the appropriation negotiation between the Trump administration and Congress, with an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry carried out quality improvement work, and many enterprises strengthened full - process quality control [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios increased by 3.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [8]. Logical Analysis - **25 - 10 - 09**: In August, the net import of domestic polyethylene decreased, and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports decreased for three consecutive months, which is favorable for the L - PP spread. The narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization in July is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Since September, the increase in Brent crude oil is unfavorable for L, and the increase in domestic PE production in August is unfavorable for the L - PP spread [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: As of last week, the number of L and PP futures registered warehouse receipts changed, and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI in August is favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the supply side's maintenance is still at a high level, and there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Trading Strategies - **25 - 10 - 09**: Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract. Consider intervening in the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th. Wait and see for options [2]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Control the open - position inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the high on Monday. Wait and see for spreads and options [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: Try to go long on the L and PP main 01 contracts at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday. Wait and see for spreads and options [7]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: Due to the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price of plastic and PP fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies. Wait and see for spreads and options [9].