Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The decrease in net imports of domestic polyethylene and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports for three consecutive months are favorable for the L - PP spread, while the narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - The increase in Brent crude oil and domestic PE production has a negative impact on the L and L - PP spread respectively [5]. - The increase in the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI are favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - Downstream demand is in the peak season, but there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Situation - **25 - 10 - 09**: L2601 contract closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. PP2601 contract closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Different regions have different price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. The price ranges in different regions are similar to the previous report [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. Different regions have corresponding price ranges [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: In the plastic spot market, prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. In the PP spot market, prices in different regions were either weak or stable [8]. Important Information - **25 - 10 - 09**: The US federal government shut down due to the breakdown of the appropriation negotiation between the Trump administration and Congress, with an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry carried out quality improvement work, and many enterprises strengthened full - process quality control [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios increased by 3.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [8]. Logical Analysis - **25 - 10 - 09**: In August, the net import of domestic polyethylene decreased, and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports decreased for three consecutive months, which is favorable for the L - PP spread. The narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization in July is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Since September, the increase in Brent crude oil is unfavorable for L, and the increase in domestic PE production in August is unfavorable for the L - PP spread [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: As of last week, the number of L and PP futures registered warehouse receipts changed, and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI in August is favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the supply side's maintenance is still at a high level, and there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Trading Strategies - **25 - 10 - 09**: Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract. Consider intervening in the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th. Wait and see for options [2]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Control the open - position inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the high on Monday. Wait and see for spreads and options [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: Try to go long on the L and PP main 01 contracts at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday. Wait and see for spreads and options [7]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: Due to the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price of plastic and PP fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies. Wait and see for spreads and options [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The petrochemical and chemical industry aims for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value from 2025 - 2026, focusing on high - end, green, and intelligent transformation. Policy support in finance, elements, etc., is provided to promote quality and quantity growth [1]. - Brent crude oil has been rising since September 2025 but is down 7.5% year - on - year, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, up 16.4% year - on - year, negatively affecting the L - PP spread [2]. - The US manufacturing PMI in August 2025 rose to 48.7 points, rising for three consecutive months, which is positive for L in the single - side trading [4]. - In September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement during the "Quality Month". Enterprises strengthened full - process quality control through digital and intelligent means [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season with a slight increase in downstream operation rates. However, the 01 contracts of both L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. Near - term cost - side oil price increases lead to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **September 30, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7100 - 7170 yuan/ton, 7160 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6830 yuan/ton in South China [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7120 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7180 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton in South China [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices in North China were 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton with some drops; in East China, they were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton with partial price changes; in South China, they were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton with a slight decline. In the PP spot market, prices in North China were 6670 - 6780 yuan/ton with a decline; in East China, they were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton with a decline; in South China, they were 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Important Information - **September 30, 2025**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value, promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation, and providing policy support [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement. Enterprises such as CNOOC, China National Chemical Engineering, and PetroChina strengthened full - process quality control [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: On the previous day, the PE maintenance ratio was 16.9%, up 3.2 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 19.3%, up 1.5 percentage points [6]. Logical Analysis - Brent crude oil rising since September 2025 but being down 7.5% year - on - year is negative for L. The increase in domestic PE production in August is negative for the L - PP spread [2]. - As of the previous week, there were no new registered L and PP futures warehouse receipts. The number of L futures registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12,700 lots, and the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 745 lots, with an inventory accumulation of 3.5% to 14,100 tons. The rise in the US manufacturing PMI in August is positive for L in single - side trading [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the 01 contracts of L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. The near - term increase in oil prices leads to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Trading Strategies - **September 30, 2025**: Due to the approaching holiday and no night trading, control the open inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and focus on the pressure at Monday's high. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [2]. - **September 29, 2025**: Try to go long in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; try to go long in the PP main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [5]. - **September 19, 2025**: Due to the near - term increase in oil prices, plastic and PP prices fluctuate in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, asphalt, and propylene are all rated as "cautiously bearish", except for soda ash which is rated as "wide - range oscillation" and glass, caustic soda which are rated as "short - term correction" [1][2] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Entering the second half of the peak season, the pressure to increase production rises, and oil prices weaken [1][3] - LPG: Dragged by the cost side, with fair fundamentals, it follows the decline of oil prices [1][6] - L: Market sentiment cools down, with short - term supply pressure increasing and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [1][9] - PP: Market sentiment cools down, with demand lagging and supply under pressure in the short term, and high production pressure in the third quarter restricting the upside [1][12] - PVC: Market sentiment cools down, with weak spot price follow - up, inventory accumulation, and a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [1][15] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with macro - policy positives still remaining, and opportunities to buy on dips are worth attention [1][19] - PTA/PR: Recent device changes are relatively small, with expected increased supply pressure in the future and seasonal weakness in demand. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [1][22] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1][24] - Glass: Policy expectations cool down, and after a sharp rise, the volatility increases. There is a risk of correction [2][27] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment is boosted, but there is a large inventory de - stocking pressure, with wide - range oscillations and a short - term correction risk [2][30] - Caustic soda: Supply returns, inventory accumulates, and there is a high - level correction pressure due to the cooling of market sentiment and the narrowing of liquid chlorine subsidies [2][33] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, demand is relatively good, and the market sentiment has declined. It is recommended to short on rallies [2][36] - Urea: The device operating load remains high, demand is weak domestically but good in exports. There is bottom support from coal prices, and attention should be paid to opportunities to short on rallies [2] - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The spot market is weak, and attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On July 25, WTI decreased by 1.32%, Brent decreased by 1.02%, and SC increased by 0.85% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. OPEC's production increase pressure is gradually released, and the key variable on the supply side is the change in US production. In terms of supply, there are new sanctions on Russia, and Norway's oil production has decreased. In terms of demand, China's imports have increased, and IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth has decreased. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude inventory has decreased [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, the oil price is weak. It is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 510] [5] LPG - **Market conditions**: On July 25, the PG main contract closed at 4037 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [6] - **Basic logic**: The cost - side oil price is the main drag, while the fundamental situation has marginally improved. Downstream chemical demand has rebounded, the basis is at a high level, and there is some support below. In terms of supply, the commodity volume has decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil have increased. In terms of inventory, refinery inventory has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [7] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. In the short - term, it is weak, and previous long positions should pay attention to risks. Pay attention to the range of PG [3900 - 4000] [8] L - **Market conditions**: The prices of L contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [10] - **Basic logic**: The exchange has restricted positions, and the short - term market sentiment has cooled down. The coal - based proportion is 20%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 14%. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and the restart of devices is expected to increase production this week. High production in the long - term restricts the rebound space [11] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [11] PP - **Market conditions**: The prices of PP contracts have increased, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13] - **Basic logic**: Market sentiment cools down. The coal - based proportion is 19%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 8%. Demand lags, supply is under pressure, and the warehouse receipt is at a high level in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate. In the third quarter, high production pressure restricts the upside [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [7050 - 7250] [14] PVC - **Market conditions**: The prices of PVC contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [16] - **Basic logic**: Market sentiment cools down. The proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 11%, the spot price follows up weakly, the basis weakens, and there is short - term policy support at the bottom. Inventory has accumulated for 5 consecutive weeks, and new devices are being commissioned, with a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [5200 - 5450] [17] PX - **Market conditions**: The prices of PX contracts have increased, and the spot price has decreased [19] - **Basic logic**: There are few changes in domestic and foreign devices. The PXN spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread has increased. The international device operating rate has declined, and imports are at a low level in the past five years. Demand changes are small, and inventory is still high. There are still positives under the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy, and attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PX [6850 - 7120] [21] PTA - **Market conditions**: The PTA spot price and contract price have increased [22] - **Basic logic**: There are few device changes recently. There are planned device overhauls and new device commissions in the future. Demand is seasonally weak, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving start - up rates are slightly differentiated. TA social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of TA [4780 - 4960] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: The ethylene glycol spot price and contract price have increased [24] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. There is still positive sentiment from the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of EG [4400 - 4550] [26] Glass - **Market conditions**: The spot price has increased, the futures price has risen sharply, and the basis has weakened [28] - **Basic logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the market sentiment is strong, and the cost is expected to rise. The glass fundamentals have improved, with inventory reaching a five - month low. The short - term price center moves up, and it depends on whether there are substantial policies on real estate and capacity in the long - term [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1230 - 1360] [29] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The heavy - soda ash spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, the basis has weakened, and the warehouse receipt has increased [31] - **Basic logic**: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment of glass and coal is strong, boosting the soda ash futures price. However, the alkali plant inventory has reached a record high, and the supply has slightly increased. The downstream support is general, and the market is mainly affected by commodity sentiment [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1310 - 1430] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The flake caustic soda spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, and the basis has weakened [34] - **Basic logic**: The supply is approaching saturation, with an increase in the average capacity utilization rate and expected new capacity commissioning. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk, and the inventory has increased. There is a pressure for the futures price to correct from a high level [35] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SH [2510 - 2630] [35] Methanol - **Market conditions**: The methanol spot price and futures price have increased [36] - **Basic logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, with the resumption of domestic overhauled devices and high overseas operating loads. The August arrivals are expected to be high. Demand is relatively good, but there is a risk of negative feedback from high prices. The social inventory has decreased but is still low, and the market sentiment has declined [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of MA [2400 - 2520] Urea - **Basic logic**: The urea device operating load remains high, domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. There is bottom support from coal prices. The short - term domestic fundamentals are still loose, and the market sentiment has declined [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to opportunities to go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of UR [1750 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulation. The cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3540 - 3640] [2] Propylene - **Basic logic**: The coal - based proportion is 20%, the spot market is weak, and the market sentiment has cooled down. Attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PL [6500 - 6700] [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5][6] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][10][12] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][14][15] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][17][18] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][26][27] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][30][31] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][35][36] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][37] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Strong reality and weak expectation, focus on OPEC's production increase and US production changes. Oil prices are in the second half of the peak season, with increasing supply - surplus pressure and a downward trend [1][5][6] - LPG: Narrow - range oil price fluctuations, recovering downstream chemical demand, and a short - term rebound in liquefied gas [7][8][9] - L: Driven by policy expectations, with short - term volatility biased upwards following policy expectations and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [10][11][12] - PP: Driven by policy expectations, following market sentiment for a rebound, with short - term volatility biased upwards and long - term third - quarter production pressure limiting the upside [14][15] - PVC: The "anti - involution" trading continues, with short - term sentiment and cost supporting the bottom, but the weak fundamental pattern limits the rebound space [17][18] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with macro - policy positives, focus on the opportunity to go long on dips [20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase with new device production, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [26][27] - Glass: Fundamental improvement, with short - term macro - industrial policy expectations providing support, and the price center of the futures market moving upwards [30][31] - Soda ash: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [35][36] - Methanol: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - Urea: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - Propylene: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.20%, Brent up 0.78%, and SC up 0.08% [4] - **Basic Logic**: Weak expectation and strong reality, with OPEC's production increase pressure gradually releasing. Supply - side focuses on US production changes. EU sanctions on Russia and Norwegian production decline. Chinese imports increase, and IEA has supply - demand forecasts. US inventory data shows changes [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, it is in narrow - range fluctuations. Light - position short positions and buying call options are recommended [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On July 24, the PG main contract closed at 3994 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are in a narrow - range tug - of - war, and the fundamentals of LPG have improved. Downstream chemical demand is recovering, and the basis is at a high level [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the oil price center is expected to move down, and LPG prices have room for compression. In the short - term, it is bullish. Close previous short positions and go long with a light position [9] L - **Market Review**: Spot prices and futures prices have small fluctuations, with inventory accumulation and a decrease in the main contract's position [11] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 20%, and old - capacity proportion is 14%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards following policy expectations, and long - term high production limits the rebound space [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, and industries can sell for hedging. Go long on dips in the short - term [12][13] PP - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position increases slightly. Spot prices have small fluctuations [14] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 19%, and old - capacity proportion is 8%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. Long - term third - quarter production pressure limits the upside [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions, and go long on dips in the short - term [15][16] PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position decreases. Spot prices increase slightly [17] - **Basic Logic**: Old - capacity proportion is 11%. "Anti - deflation" trading continues, with weak spot price increases and a weak basis. Social inventory has increased for 5 weeks [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions due to high short - term market volatility [18] PX - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [20] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand - side changes are also limited. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy positives [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips. The price range is [6940 - 7050] [21][22] PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [23] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4830 - 4920] [24][25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased slightly, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [26] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4480 - 4600] [27][28] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes continue to rise, the futures market rises sharply, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [30] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and coal - related product price increases, the fundamentals improve, and the price center of the futures market moves upwards [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions after a large increase, and go long based on the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. The price range is [1310 - 1360] [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increases [32] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the moving averages tend to converge. The price range is [1410 - 1460] [32][33] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Flake - caustic spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the upward slope slows down. The price range is [2640 - 2710] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the 09 contract decreased. The basis and month - spread changed [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [2470 - 2520] [2] Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips with a light position. The price range is [1770 - 1810] [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short with a light position. The price range is [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [6550 - 6800] [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly due to EU sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ expansion [1][3][4] - LPG: With stable cost, rising downstream开工率, it is short - term bullish, and previous short positions can take profit [1][6][7] - L: It is mainly following market sentiment for a short - term rebound, affected by anti - involution to a limited extent [1][10][11] - PP: The spot price has turned from falling to rising, with reduced inventory pressure and expected high export growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, it is short - term bullish despite weak fundamentals [1][17][18] - PX: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with high inventory and macro - policy support, suggesting holding long positions [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but with macro - policy support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [1][26][27] - Glass: Policy expectations boost the market, with inventory de - stocking and rising prices [2][29][31] - Soda ash: Despite high supply and inventory, it is following market sentiment and recommended to go long on pullbacks [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [2][34][35] - Methanol: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations, it is recommended to go long lightly [2] - Asphalt: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short lightly [2] - Propylene: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude oil - Market situation: International oil prices fell overnight, with WTI down 0.27%, Brent down 0.35%, and SC up 1.63%. The current weak - expectation and strong - reality situation has support at the bottom, but OPEC+ expansion brings downward pressure [3][4] - Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection, with SC in the range of [500 - 515] [1][5] LPG - Market situation: On July 20, the PG main contract closed at 4068 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The cost is stable, downstream PDH开工率 is rising, and port inventory is accumulating [6][7] - Strategy: Take profit on previous short positions, with PG in the range of [3950 - 4050] [1][8] L - Market situation: The absolute price has low - valuation support, and it follows market sentiment for a short - term rebound. Social inventory has accumulated for 3 weeks, but the off - season for agricultural films is approaching an end [10][11] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with L in the range of [7200 - 7400] [1][12] PP - Market situation: The spot price has rebounded, with inventory de - stocking and increased unexpected maintenance. 1 - 6 months' exports increased by 21% year - on - year [13][14] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with PP in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][15] PVC - Market situation: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, the market is bullish in the short term, but inventory is accumulating, and the fundamental weakness limits the rebound space [17][18] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with V in the range of [5100 - 5300] [1][19] PX - Market situation: Supply - demand is in tight balance, inventory is high, and macro - policies are favorable. The PXN spread is not low, and the basis is narrowing [20][21] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on pullbacks, with PX in the range of [6820 - 6910] [1][22] PTA/PR - Market situation: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. However, it is short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [23][24] - Strategy: Add long positions on pullbacks, with TA in the range of [4740 - 4810] [1][25] Ethylene glycol - Market situation: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but low inventory and macro - policies support the price. Import and arrival are low [26][27] - Strategy: Try to go long at low levels, with EG in the range of [4405 - 4450] [1][28] Glass - Market situation: Policy expectations boost the market, inventory has been de - stocking for 4 weeks, and the spot price has increased [29][31] - Strategy: Go long based on the 5 - day moving average, with FG in the range of [1160 - 1200] [2][31] Soda ash - Market situation: High supply and inventory, but following market sentiment. The inventory has reached a new high, and the supply - demand surplus remains [32][33] - Strategy: Go long on pullbacks, with SA in the range of [1290 - 1350] [2] Caustic soda - Market situation: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [34][35] - Strategy: Go long cautiously based on the 10 - day moving average, with SH in the range of [2560 - 2620] [2] Methanol - Market situation: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [36] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks, with MA in the range of [2385 - 2435] [2] Urea - Market situation: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations [2] - Strategy: Try to go long lightly, with UR in the range of [1800 - 1835] [2] Asphalt - Market situation: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and supply and demand are both increasing, but inventory is accumulating [2] - Strategy: Go short lightly, with BU in the range of [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - Market situation: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] - Strategy: Go long unilaterally at low levels and consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or PP processing fees, with a focus on the range of [6250 - 6600] [2]