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聚酯数据日报-20260121
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 07:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is optimistic about the medium - term supply - demand pattern of PTA, weakening the impact of short - term polyester production cuts, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the maintenance of a 750,000 - ton polyester plant has a negative impact on the PTA spot basis [2]. - The PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds and improved production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reformer maintenance. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, but the decline in domestic demand and polyester factory production cuts have a negative feedback on PTA [2]. - Overseas MEG plant maintenance plans are increasing, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and the increase in new plant production, the MEG price lacks effective support. However, it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 437.4 yuan/barrel on January 19, 2026, to 437.0 yuan/barrel on January 20, 2026, a decrease of 0.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price increased from 1851.4 yuan/ton to 1968.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 116.91 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5824 to 1.6198, an increase of 0.0373 [2]. - **PTA**: The main - contract futures price increased from 5030 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, a rise of 114.0 yuan/ton; the spot - market processing margin increased from 321.4 yuan/ton to 324.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.0 yuan/ton; the on - paper processing margin increased from 381.4 yuan/ton to 498.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 117.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main - contract futures price dropped from 3755 yuan/ton to 3674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.0 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis increased from - 120 to - 113, a rise of 7.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained at 85.82% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained at 75.63% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Dropped from 60.58% to 60.49%, a decrease of 0.09% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Dropped from 85.83% to 84.69%, a decrease of 1.14% [2]. 3.3 Product Sales Conditions - **Polyester Filament**: The sales rate of POY, FDY, and DTY remained at 0.0% in price change; the sales rate of polyester filament decreased from 50% to 46%, a decrease of 4% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 57% to 92%, a rise of 35% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright polyester chips remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 84% to 174%, a rise of 90% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to start planned maintenance tomorrow. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [2].
聚酯数据日报-20250807
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 08:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA market saw price increases due to a rebound in the crude oil market and production cuts at some PTA plants, but the spot basis weakened due to continuous shipments from major suppliers. The ethylene glycol market maintained a strong - side oscillation, with spot prices rising slightly and the basis negotiation strengthening. The polyester market faced a complex situation, with factors such as changes in raw material prices, production and sales rates, and inventory levels affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 508.8 yuan/barrel on August 5, 2025, to 505.9 yuan/barrel on August 6, 2025, a decrease of 2.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 984.5 yuan/ton to 1047.6 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.2663 to 1.2849. PTA主力期价 increased from 4682 yuan/ton to 4724 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4660 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 144.6 yuan/ton to 160.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose from 161.6 yuan/ton to 174.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 839 to 844, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 260 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4399 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 101.04 yuan/ton to - 97.23 yuan/ton, and MEG internal market price rose from 4463 to 4491 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, PTA start - up rate decreased from 78.04% to 77.49%, MEG start - up rate increased from 58.81% to 59.54%, and polyester load remained at 87.09% [2]. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged. POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows decreased by 27.0. The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 37% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6550 to 6535, the staple - fiber cash flow decreased from 171 to 129, and the short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 47% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased from 5780 to 5795, the chip cash flow decreased from - 49 to - 61, and the chip production and sales rate increased from 73% to 87% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].