Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overall, the domestic demand for ethylene glycol in the demand side has declined at a moderate pace. After the liberalization of BIS, the export orders for filament have increased significantly. The polyester demand is expected to remain above 91% in November, and the average monthly load in December is expected to be adjusted from 90% to slightly below 91%. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. However, the coking coal trading in the cost side has weakened, indicating a reduced concern about the cost side, and the price has continued to break through and decline. In the long - term, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of oversupply in supply - demand cannot be reversed. The current expectation of near - end explicit inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability against supply - side accidents has also increased. Therefore, the idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In terms of the downward space, the cash flow of the current coal - based marginal ethylene glycol devices has been compressed below the cost line. Considering the start - up situation of coal - based devices, if the valuation continues to be compressed, it is expected to receive strong support from the supply side around 3700. Specifically, for the 01 contract, short positions or selling call options can be considered above 3900 [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 3650 - 4100 | 16.39% | 34.0% | | PX | 6300 - 7100 | 14.77% | 37.9% | | PTA | 4300 - 4900 | 11.91% | 15.7% | | Bottle Chips | 5400 - 6000 | 9.91% | 13.7% | [4] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ethylene glycol price, for long - position spot exposure, shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3880 - 3980 can lock in profits and make up for production costs. Buying put options (EG2601P3750) and selling call options (EG2601C3900) with a 50% hedging ratio can prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3700 - 3750 can lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (EG2601P3750) with a 75% hedging ratio can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [4]. Polyester Daily Table 01 - **Price**: It shows the prices of various polyester - related products on 2025 - 11 - 27, 2025 - 11 - 26, and 2025 - 11 - 20, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester fibers, etc., as well as their daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Spread**: It includes the basis differences of TA, EG, PF, and the month - to - month spreads of PX, TA, EG, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [8][9]. - **Processing Fee**: It shows the processing fees and profits of various products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, naphtha cracking spread, etc., and their daily and weekly changes. It also includes the production and sales rates of polyester products [9]. Core Contradictions - Demand for polyester remains relatively high, with an expected load of over 91% in November and an adjusted average monthly load of slightly below 91% in December. Supply - side device accidents have led to a slowdown in inventory accumulation, but the weakening of coking coal trading in the cost side has reduced cost concerns, and the price has continued to decline. In the long - term, the oversupply situation persists, and the valuation pressure pattern cannot be reversed. The expectation of near - end inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability has increased. The idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. The ethylene glycol price is expected to receive support around 3700 [5]. 利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Interpretations") - Recently, there have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices in the Chinese mainland, involving a total capacity of 1 million tons. Some overseas shutdown devices' restart expectations have also been delayed [6]. 利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Interpretations") - A new 830,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China is planned to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and it is expected to bring a small additional supply increment in December [7].

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——供应端传闻扰动，EG低位反弹 2025/10/22 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3800-4300 | 11.64% | 10.6% | | PX | 6000-6800 | 13.82% | 34.1% | | PTA | 4250-4750 | 13.87% | 23.9% | | 瓶片 | 5300-5900 | 11.19% | 31.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 【利空解读】 1、华南一套80万吨/年的MEG新装置计划于11月上旬乙烯进料进行试开车，届时将有部分产量可兑现于市 场。华南新装置原计划26年一季度投产，如今投产时间提前，12月供应端预计将带来小幅额外增量。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has bottomed out and warmed up, with EG showing a slight rebound. The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol is limited, and if there are unexpected drivers in the supply side or macro aspects, the upward price will be more elastic. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4150 - 4350, and breakthrough depends on cost and macro drivers. In operation, due to short - term over - decline under sentiment suppression, the price has support, and it is advisable to moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4150 - 4450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.95% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.1%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7000, with a volatility of 10.94% and a percentile of 7.6%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5000, with a volatility of 9.97% and a percentile of 6.9%. For bottle chips, it is 5500 - 6100, with a volatility of 7.49% and a percentile of 1.2% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory of ethylene glycol is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4320 - 4420) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy EG2601P4100 put options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options (50 - 80) to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 4180 - 4250) to lock in procurement costs. Sell EG2601P4100 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 80) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - Ethylene glycol has insufficient fundamental drivers recently. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation target. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation in the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation is further pressured. Currently, the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, and it is not recommended to continue shorting before its realization. The supply side has little room for unexpected increases, lacking supply elasticity. Considering low inventory, low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity, the short - term downward space is limited, while the upward price has more elasticity if there are unexpected drivers [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of marginal coal - based ethylene glycol plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, and the restart time is undetermined, which may lead to additional import reduction in October [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October (unplanned). The 200,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant of Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October, and attention should be paid to the production progress [6]. Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price data of various polyester products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, toluene, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers on September 24, 2025, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [8][9].

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——累库预期提前，估值供需承压 2025/09/10 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 1、本周计划到港14.33万吨，港口发货不佳，下周一港口库存预计累库3万吨左右，现货流动性预计将逐步放 松。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4200-4600 | 11.05% | 6.4% | | PX | 6500-7400 | 13.78% | 30.4% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 12.97% | 20.1% | | 瓶片 | 5800-6500 | 10.02% | 10.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Coal Turmoil Resurfaces, EG Slightly Strengthens [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in the third quarter is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is further postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 25% in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 10 - 15 [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 4280 - 4330 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a hedging ratio of 75% in the entry range of 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - The "anti-involution" logic has ended, and prices have returned to fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has limited downward space in the third quarter due to small inventory accumulation and low inventory levels, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 利多解读 - On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", causing coal prices to rebound and production costs to increase [3] 利空解读 - There are market rumors that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering serious losses and there are plans to cut production, but the implementation remains to be observed. The "anti-involution" sentiment has cooled after the July 30 Politburo meeting, and valuations have returned to fundamentals. The restart of previously shut - down Saudi Arabian plants has led to an upward revision of September import expectations [6] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - The report lists the production devices of MEG, PX, and PTA put into operation before May 30, 2005, including their regions, enterprises, addresses, capacities, production times, operating statuses, total capacities, capacity proportions, and monthly production impacts [7] Polyester Daily Table - It provides price, spread, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and profit data for various polyester - related products on August 6, 2025, August 5, 2025, and July 30, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [8][9]