Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

美投君唯一内容服务【美投Pro】，正在“九点半”独家发布！新用户前7天免费试用~ 详情点击：https://www.jdbinvesting.com?utm_source=mtq&utm_campaign=mt_pro_250809&utm_medium=yt_desc 【美投Pro】都有什么？ ✅一年50期视频，最深度的股票分析和跟踪 ✅专业分析师团队，以及上千会员共同交流 ✅每日分享投资观点，专业数据，以及交易总结 ✅已有120+期视频，10000+投资观点 【美投Pro】试看样片： 后现代周期 https://youtu.be/oVcFIiWpfW0?si=uxUJGLx_QSCVmvMJ 电动车投资 https://youtu.be/UPTGSoSjJI4?si=lw_0Yl0ovuyivkX3 战胜华尔街 https://youtu.be/pj9P-A57EJU?si=nY33Xyhct_C1TKuL 美债大结局 https://youtu.be/h9dFZa2j41w?si=NkEFdznxuWM56XsC 量化风险 https://youtu.be/OCT_XwOi0ME?si=E7rVodbO ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly market declined to varying degrees, with all three option underlying assets dropping by over 1%. The changes in the position PCR ratios showed divergence, with the position PCR of 50ETF and 300ETF continuing to fall, while the put contract position ratio of 500ETF increased. Considering the changes in the implied volatility curve structure, with the curve of 500ETF shifting to the left, indicating some cautious sentiment, it is believed that the current market risk preference level has decreased, and a cautious attitude towards small-cap growth stocks is recommended. This is relatively favorable for large-cap blue-chip underlying assets such as 50ETF and 300ETF [5][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review 3.1.1 Underlying Asset Market - From July 28 to August 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated during the week, closing at 3559.95, with lower trading volume compared to the previous week. The Shenzhen Component Index fluctuated and declined during the week, with a decline of 1.58% compared to the previous week, closing at 10991.32, and lower trading volume compared to the previous week [2][8]. - 50ETF opened at 2.917 at the beginning of the week and closed at 2.876 at the end of the week, down 0.040 or 1.37% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 10.865 billion yuan. Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF opened at 4.203 at the beginning of the week and closed at 4.133 at the end of the week, down 0.070 or 1.67% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 17.173 billion yuan. Southern CSI 500ETF opened at 6.365 at the beginning of the week and closed at 6.287 at the end of the week, down 0.078 or 1.23% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 6.109 billion yuan [3][8]. 3.1.2 Futures Index Market - From July 28 to August 1, all contracts of the stock index futures IH closed down. Among them, contract IH2508 declined by -1.42%. All contracts of the stock index futures IF closed down. Among them, contract IF2508 declined by -1.93%. All contracts of the stock index futures IC closed down. Among them, contract IC2508 declined by -1.43% [9]. 3.2 Option Market Review 3.2.1 Trading and Position Holding Situation - From July 28 to August 1, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options for the week was 1,249,242 contracts, a decrease of 123,739 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,443,444 contracts, an increase of 202,752 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 0.84, a decrease of 0.14 from the end of the previous week [13]. - The average daily trading volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF options for the week was 1,165,780 contracts, a decrease of 219,482 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,284,104 contracts, an increase of 107,929 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 0.89, a decrease of 0.14 from the end of the previous week [15]. - The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options for the week was 1,352,948 contracts, a decrease of 102,102 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,249,009 contracts, an increase of 165,492 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 1.07, an increase of 0.06 from the end of the previous week [19]. 3.2.2 Volatility Situation - **Historical Volatility**: As of August 1, the 5-day historical rolling volatility of 50ETF rose to 13.05%, near the 50th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 13.05%, 10.97%, 9.09%, and 9.07% respectively [22]. - The 5-day historical rolling volatility of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF rose to 14.26%, near the 50th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 14.26%, 12.76%, 10.26%, and 9.74% respectively [25]. - The 5-day historical rolling volatility of Southern CSI 500ETF rose to 12.99%, near the 25th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 12.99%, 13.83%, 11.63%, and 11.80% respectively [26]. - **Implied Volatility**: On August 1, the implied volatility near the at-the-money level decreased, and the overall implied volatility level declined. For 50ETF and 300ETF, the slopes on both sides of the curve increased, indicating an increased market expectation of future volatility. For 500ETF, the curve shifted to the left, showing some cautious sentiment [29]. - **Comparison of Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility Trends**: In terms of volatility, short-term volatility increased slightly, and monthly volatility followed suit. Implied volatility declined continuously during the week, and the volatility difference narrowed significantly. It is expected that historical volatility will continue to rise in the future, and the volatility difference will further narrow [36]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Given the market decline, the divergence in position PCR ratios, and the changes in the implied volatility curve structure, a cautious attitude towards small-cap growth stocks is recommended, and large-cap blue-chip underlying assets such as 50ETF and 300ETF are relatively favored [5][43].

Group 1 - The event "Capital Assistance, Lu Power Forward - 'Yujian Options' Training Class (Jinan)" was held to enhance the understanding and application of options knowledge among futures practitioners in Shandong [2][3] - The training aimed to address the increasing demand for refined risk management by enterprises due to heightened global economic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [2][3] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has made significant progress in supporting high-quality development of the real economy through various initiatives in options business, including the launch of new options products and the introduction of innovative margin policies [3] Group 2 - The training covered a wide range of topics, including market operation, trading rules, options pricing principles, strategy application, and enterprise risk management [4] - Experts from various institutions provided insights into options strategies, market analysis indicators, and practical applications of options in enterprise risk management [4] - Participants reported that the training effectively combined theoretical knowledge with practical needs, enhancing their professional level in utilizing options tools for the real economy [6] Group 3 - The association plans to continue collaborating with ZCE and other futures exchanges to conduct multi-level and diverse training activities, strengthening the talent pool in the industry [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report released on July 10, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn markets [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13810 with a 25-point increase, CF05 at 13790 (20-point increase), CF09 at 13865 (35-point increase), CY01 at 19980 (25-point increase), CY05 at 19915 (no change), and CY09 at 20030 (45-point increase) [3] - Trading volumes and open interest of various contracts showed different changes [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15196 yuan/ton with a 3-yuan increase, and Cot A was 78.15 cents/pound with a 0.60-cent decrease [3] - Price changes were also observed in other spot prices such as CY IndexC32S, FCY IndexC33S, etc [3] Price Spreads - Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads had different changes, e.g., the 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 20 with a 5 - point increase [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of June 23, 2025, the cotton planting area in India was 5.466 million hectares, 0.531 million hectares lower than the previous year, with a target of 12.95 million hectares [6] - During July 3 - 9, 2025, the weekly rainfall in Indian cotton - growing areas was 85.4mm, higher than normal and last year [6] - As of July 6, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 13,000 tons, a 59% year - on - year decline, and the cumulative listing volume for 2024/25 was 4.9356 million tons, a 5% decline [7] - The current cotton commercial inventory and imports are at low levels, but the potential issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas and trade uncertainties may limit the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton [8] Trading Strategies for Cotton - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry - The cotton yarn market is still sluggish with insufficient orders, and prices are expected to remain stable or slightly bullish [10] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is also quiet, with low production willingness of weaving factories [13] Group 4: Options - The 30 - day HV of cotton increased slightly today, and the implied volatilities of different options were 9.1%, 9.7%, and 13.8% respectively [15] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that the bearish sentiment in the market increased [16] - Option strategy: Sell put options [17] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts such as the price spread of domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton contracts [18][19][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the spot gold market is currently exhibiting a weak trend, with prices retreating to the low point area from the previous night [1] - The price of gold is approaching a significant support level at 3307, which is identified as the strongest support zone based on multiple Bollinger Bands and important options reference points [1] - There is a need to monitor whether gold prices can stabilize at this support level; if it fails to hold, the next support is further away and weaker than the current support zone [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant decline today, attributed to multiple factors including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2][8] - The Federal Reserve's meeting resulted in no interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell citing uncertainties in inflation and trade tensions as reasons for the decision, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and a drop in US stocks [1][2] - The Middle East situation remains tense, with recent attacks affecting securities trading centers, contributing to market volatility [2] Group 2 - A-shares saw a substantial increase in trading volume, reaching 1.28 trillion, with a net outflow of 73.9 billion, marking one of the worst trading days since June [3][5] - The majority of sectors, except for oil and gas, faced declines, indicating a broad market downturn [5] - Despite the downturn, there are no immediate signs of a major risk event, suggesting that while the market is volatile, it is not in a state of crisis [5][8] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the market has formed a top structure since June 10, and the current decline was anticipated [11] - Many indices, including the CSI 1000, are showing signs of potential bottom structures, although overcoming the larger top structures may be challenging [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall balance sheet of new US soybean crops has tightened, especially under the influence of biodiesel policy adjustments, making the overall supply - demand situation more tense. South American supply is generally loose, with potential export pressure in Brazil and stable high - yield in Argentina. In China, soybean arrivals are increasing while demand is good, but there is still some pressure [4]. - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, hitting a four - year low. In China, the delayed summer stocking demand, combined with the short - term weakness of raw sugar, has led to higher import profits, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [9]. - Last Friday night, the EPA's proposed RVO exceeded expectations, causing the US soybean oil to hit the daily limit. Affected by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, Brent crude oil also opened higher. Oils and fats are expected to run strongly in the short term, following crude oil and US biodiesel. Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is not overly loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, with a pattern of oversupply, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil market is still strong [17]. - US corn sowing is accelerating, and the weather is favorable, so the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is relatively scarce, with rising prices in the Northeast and stable port prices. It is rumored that imported corn will be auctioned. The spot price of corn in North China is strong, and the wheat price continues to rise. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened, and the corn spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Corn spot is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - After the continuous decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm has slowed down. However, due to the increasing monthly slaughter of large - scale enterprises and the high inventory of ordinary farmers and secondary fattening, the overall supply pressure is still relatively high [30]. - Peanut spot trading is still scarce. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined and are currently stable at around 4.6 yuan per catty. Imports have decreased significantly, and the price of imported peanuts is also falling. Peanut oil mills' purchase prices are relatively stable, but downstream consumption remains weak. Peanut meal prices are stable, and peanut oil prices are stable. Oil mills are profitable, but the purchase volume of large - scale oil mills is small. The peanut market for oil is weak. The market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, and peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with potential for further decline [34]. - After May, with the arrival of the rainy season, egg consumption has entered the off - season, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. For futures, considering the current price level, the downward space is limited. For far - month contracts, as egg prices weaken, the willingness to cull laying hens has increased. If the culling volume continues to rise in the future, which may improve the egg supply, the August and September contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the upward space may be limited if the supply side is not significantly improved [43]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi. The futures price of apples in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is affected by two factors. On the macro level, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries makes the cotton trend highly uncertain. On the fundamental level, the national commercial cotton inventory is currently at a low level. If the inventory - reduction speed remains the same in the future, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new - flower listing, and cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market Situation**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.69% to 1062.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 298.6 US dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: US May soybean crushing is expected to reach a record high for the same period, with an average estimate of 193.519 million bushels. Brazil's soybean exports from March to May increased by 3.3 million tons to 44 million tons. CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week but decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new US soybean balance sheet has tightened, while South American supply is loose. In China, there is still some pressure despite increasing arrivals and good demand [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term short - selling operations for single - side trading; M11 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage; selling call options for options trading [5]. Sugar - **External Market Situation**: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.16 (0.96%) to 16.54 cents per pound [6]. - **Important Information**: Sugar prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants have decreased. As of Friday, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 707 week - on - week, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged. China's sugar imports in May are expected to be about 400,000 tons, much higher than 20,000 tons in the same period last year. The sales - to - production ratio of domestic sugar in the 24/25 season as of the end of May exceeded 70% [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Raw sugar has been affected by the expected increase in global supply, while in China, the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, maintain a short position with partial profit - taking and partial holding; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market Situation**: The price of CBOT US soybean oil changed by 6.48% to 50.61 cents per pound, and the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil changed by 2.27% to 3927 ringgit per ton [14]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 increased by 26.3% compared to the same period last month. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and about 18% of US corn planting areas were affected [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The EPA's proposal and geopolitical factors have led to a strong short - term trend in oils and fats. India's tax reduction on crude palm oil may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory, and the rapeseed oil market has an oversupply pattern but strong bottom support [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, oils and fats are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may fall back after the event and sentiment fade; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the main contract rebounding 0.2% to 444.5 cents per bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: In the US corn - producing states, 94.44% of the areas are likely to have higher - than - normal temperatures and 61% are likely to have higher - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. The wheat market price is rising. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas and 18% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought. The expected corn planting area in the US 2025/2026 is 95.3 million acres, unchanged from May. The purchase price in the northern port is stable, and the corn price in the North China production area is strong [23][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn sowing is accelerating, and the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is scarce, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the outer - market 07 corn is oscillating at the bottom, and take a wait - and - see approach for the 07 contract; for arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on corn and starch spreads, buy the 09 starch contract and short the 09 corn contract when the spread is low, and hold the position of buying corn and shorting the 07 corn contract; for options, consider a strategy of selling options at high prices for those with spot inventory [27][28]. Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices are rebounding in most regions. As of June 13, the prices of 7 - kg and 15 - kg piglets remained unchanged, while the price of 50 - kg sows decreased by 3 yuan per head. On June 13, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.14 points, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high due to the increasing slaughter of large - scale enterprises and high inventory [30]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spreads; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is small, and the price of peanut oil is strong with some negotiation space. Peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 5280 tons week - on - week, and the peanut oil inventory decreased by 170 tons week - on - week [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot trading is scarce, imports are decreasing, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, so peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short peanuts at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [35][36][37]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.22 yuan per catty compared to last Friday, and the price in the main sales areas decreased by 0.18 yuan per catty. The national mainstream egg price is mostly stable. In May, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year. The egg - chick hatching volume in May decreased by 4% month - on - month and increased by 1% year - on - year. As of June 13, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the average slaughter age decreased by 3 days. As of June 12, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The average inventory in the production and circulation links increased, and the egg - farming profit decreased [40][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: Egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price is expected to be weak. For futures, the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of laying hens increases, the August and September contracts may rise, but the upward space may be limited [43]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider building long positions in the August and September far - month contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [44]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of June 11, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 1.2746 million tons, a decrease of 107,400 tons week - on - week, and the sales speed slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import volume increased by 123.9% year - on - year. The downstream demand for apples is weak, and the impact of seasonal fruits is significant. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage. The price of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, with more transactions in high - cost - performance products [45][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the price of early - maturing apples. The futures price in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.37 (0.55%) to 67.90 cents per pound [52]. - **Important Information**: Cotton spot trading is cold, and the purchase intention of spinning mills is weak. The sales basis is firm. As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton futures sellers decreased by 1511. From June 1 to 11, the rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas was lower than normal. The southwest monsoon resumed on Thursday [53][54][57]. - **Trading Logic**: The uncertainty of trade policies affects the cotton trend, and the low commercial inventory may lead to tight supply before the new - flower listing, so cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [59][60].

免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 股指期货全景日报 2025/5/28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF主力合约（2506） | IC主力合约（2506） | 3805.0 5568.0 | -7.8↓ IF次主力合约（2509） -14.6↓ IC次主力合约（2509） | 3735.2 5383.4 | -8.0↓ -7.2↓ | | IH主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in US stock markets, particularly on May 21, was driven by weak US Treasury auction results and concerns over the sustainability of US debt following a credit rating downgrade by Moody's [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The S&P 500 ETF, Dow Jones Index, and Nasdaq Composite Index experienced declines of 1.61%, 1.91%, and 1.41% respectively on May 21 [1]. - Investors showed low interest in the latest US Treasury auction, with yields significantly exceeding market expectations, leading to fears about rising fiscal deficits due to potential tax cuts [3]. Group 2: Catalysts to Watch - Key upcoming factors that may influence market trends include US inflation data, potential political interference in monetary policy, trade negotiations, corporate earnings performance, and macroeconomic uncertainties [4]. - The technology sector remains a focal point for long-term market interest despite anticipated short-term volatility [4]. Group 3: Nvidia's Position - Nvidia is set to release its earnings report soon, making it a significant focus for market participants [5]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage, but faces challenges such as export restrictions to China and increasing competition from major players like AMD, Google, and Microsoft [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Nvidia's past financial performance has been robust, driven by its data center business, with strong revenue and profit growth expected to continue in the upcoming quarters [8]. - Despite concerns about supply chain risks and geopolitical uncertainties, Nvidia's leadership in AI chip technology remains solid, supported by recent positive developments in the Middle East [11]. Group 5: Technical and Market Signals - Nvidia's stock has been fluctuating between $130 and $138, with short-term support near $130 and resistance around $138 [13]. - Recent trading activity indicates a net outflow of $1.7 billion on May 21, primarily due to profit-taking, but short-selling pressure remains limited [15]. - The implied volatility for Nvidia options is at 56.23%, suggesting potential for further price movement as the earnings report approaches [17]. Group 6: Options Activity - Recent options activity shows a predominance of bullish sentiment, with traders focusing on price ranges between $110-$160 and $120-$145 [20][21]. - The options market reflects a mixed outlook, with significant trading volumes indicating expectations of price movements following the earnings announcement [19][21].