1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current stock - bond state may be what the authorities desire, namely "a slow - bull in stocks and no continuous sharp decline in bonds." The monetary authorities maintain liquidity but avoid rapid policy rate cuts, using more structural tools and supporting the real estate market. This encourages the transfer of funds from real estate and bonds to equities, achieving a slow - bull in stocks and preventing continuous sharp declines in bonds and real estate to ensure financial stability [1][88]. - In September, the stock - bond state is likely to remain unchanged, and the headwind period for the bond market may not be over. The 10 - year Treasury yield has two pressure levels: 1.80% and 1.90%. Currently, it hovers around 1.78%. Short - term bond market operations may require patience, with more focus on band - trading during pullbacks. After two major macro - events in September (domestic military parade and Fed's decision on interest rate cuts), the bond market may enter a favorable period in late September and the fourth quarter [2][91]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Current Open Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Environment**: The economic fundamentals are still "weak." In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, with core CPI rising to 0.8%. PPI's year - on - year decline remained at 3.6%, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Financial data showed a seasonal decline in social financing, a contraction in credit financing, and a negative increase in new RMB loans for the first time in 20 years. Some economic indicators were divided, and domestic economic recovery was restricted by multiple factors [7][8]. - **Policy Environment**: The Fed's dovish stance is conducive to the implementation of domestic aggregate monetary policy in the fourth quarter. The central bank mainly uses structural policies and guides funds through a two - step allocation: in asset allocation, it guides funds from bonds to stocks; in economic development, it focuses on consumption, infrastructure, and real estate in sequence. If three of the four conditions are met, the probability of a domestic central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is high, and currently, three conditions are gradually being met [24][27]. - **Bank Funding**: The bank funding situation has been relatively loose since July, with a slight reduction in net central bank money injection in July compared to June. As of August 14, the central bank's money withdrawal was 43,530 billion yuan, and the injection was 17,265 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and market interest rates such as DR007 and FR007 showed a downward trend [28][31]. - **Corporate Profit and Financing Environment**: From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size continued to decline year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, below the boom - bust line. In July, corporate short - term and long - term loans decreased, and only bill financing increased year - on - year. Overall, industrial profits are still suppressed by price factors, and the financing structure is tilting towards bonds [37]. 3.2 Interest Rate Market Analysis - **Primary Market**: In July, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 3.2 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.53 trillion yuan. As of August 14, the total issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan. The issuance interest rates of four types of interest - rate bonds (Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit) have shown a trend of convergence since January 2025, with the Treasury bond rate rising by more than 15BP [43]. - **Secondary Market**: From July to August 2025, the short - end interest rates of Treasury bonds remained stable, while the medium - and long - end rates generally increased, making the yield curve steeper. In July, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.65% to 1.70%, and in August, it fluctuated between 1.70% - 1.79%. The trend of China Development Bank bonds was different from that of Treasury bonds, and the spread between them widened [48][53]. 3.3 Credit Market Analysis - **Primary Market**: In July, the net financing of credit bonds was strong, with a net financing of 3,519 billion yuan. As of August 14, the issuance scale was 6,364.05 billion yuan, and the repayment amount increased to 8,742 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate of credit bonds in July was 1.91%, down 30BP year - on - year [67]. - **Secondary Market**: As of August 14, the yields of AAA - rated corporate bonds of various maturities declined, with the long - end decline being greater. Credit spreads continued to converge, and the spreads between AA and AAA - rated corporate bonds also narrowed [73]. - **Real Estate Bonds**: In July, the net financing of real estate bonds turned positive, with a net financing of 44 billion yuan. As of August 14, the net financing was negative. The transaction volume of commercial housing has been at a low level in the past five years, and as of August 9, the average weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 13.31% year - on - year [78][81]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In July 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 423 billion yuan, remaining at a historical low. This reflects the pressure on the financing environment of urban investment platforms and the acceleration of their transformation process [85]. 3.4 September Bond Market Strategy - The current stock - bond state is expected to continue in September. The bond market may still face headwinds, with 1.80% and 1.90% as two pressure levels for the 10 - year Treasury yield. Short - term bond market operations should focus on band - trading during pullbacks, and the bond market may improve after two major macro - events in September [2][91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current stock - bond state of "slow bull in stocks and non - continuous sharp decline in bonds" is formed by the monetary authorities' adjustment through monetary policy. They first tightened liquidity in Q1 and then used small - scale aggregate policies and structural policies in Q2 and Q3 to guide funds from bonds to stocks [2][25] - For the subsequent bond market, there are three judgments: the upper limit of the 10 - year yield may be OMO + 50BP; the 30 - year term spread has re - widened, and the yield curve has changed from flat to steep; PPI turning positive may be the important signal for the interest rate trend reversal, and there is a possibility of a market change in Q3 and Q4, depending on domestic macro - events in September and whether the Fed cuts interest rates as expected [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - bearing Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Rate**: The funds rate was basically stable in the middle of the week and rose significantly near the weekend. DR001 rose 8BP to 1.40% on August 15, with a weekly fluctuation of 9BP; R001 rose to 1.44% on August 15, also with a weekly fluctuation of 9BP. DR007 rose 4BP from 1.44% on August 11 to 1.48% on August 15, and FR007 rose 3BP [11] - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放 continued to shrink to 711.8 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1.13 trillion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 414.9 billion yuan [11] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread showed differentiation. The 6 - month SOFR rate in the US decreased from 4.06% on August 11 to 4.04% on August 15, while the 6 - month SHIBOR rate in China remained stable at 1.61% for the third consecutive week. The inversion of the 6 - month interest rate spread slightly decreased, while the inversion of the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads slightly increased [17] - **Term Spread**: The term spreads of Chinese and US bonds both slightly widened. The 10 - 2 - year term spread of Chinese bonds increased from 31BP to 34BP, and that of US bonds increased 7BP to 58BP [18][21] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yield curves of Chinese and US bonds became slightly steeper. For Chinese bonds, the 1 - 2 - year yield was almost unchanged, the 3 - month yield decreased 3BP, and the 5 - 10 - year yield increased about 3BP. For US bonds, except for the 10 - year yield, the overall change was within 5BP, with the 3 - month yield decreasing 4BP, the 3 - 5 - year yield increasing 2BP, and the 10 - year yield increasing 6BP [21] 2. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Real Estate Market - In the week of August 15, the commercial housing transaction area data continued to decline and reached a low point. The daily transaction area of commercial housing in first - tier cities was about 50,000 square meters, and the daily transaction volume was about 500 units, both at historically low levels. The daily transaction area of commercial housing in ten major cities was about 80,000 square meters, and that in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 170,000 square meters [32]