随着投资者和政策制定者对持续变化的经济增长和通胀动态作出反应，债券市场分化正在加剧。自 2021年—2022年的通胀冲击以来，市场曾多次预期利率会"长时间维持在高位"，但每当出现任何宽松信 号，如2023年四季度和2023年夏季，市场便会出现反弹。这次会不同吗？同时，债券配置在更广泛的投 资组合中能起到什么作用？ 今年上半年外部冲击不断。美国政府的关税措施逐步升级，最终在4月初宣布"解放日"关税时达到顶 峰。随后，关税进一步升级，颠覆了数十年的贸易政策，直至宣布暂缓实施。在此背景下，长期债券而 非股票市场扮演了"约束者"的角色，迫使政府重新考虑其策略。这可能标志着"债券警示"作用的回归， 即固定收益市场将对财政前景日益恶化的政府施加一定程度的约束。即使部分关税通过贸易协议被取 消，经济民族主义和资本回流的可能性也在上升。资本或从美国金融资产流出，转向全球固定收益市 场，意味着美国的风险溢价与长期债券收益率上升。而这可能是支撑非美国金融资产的一个强有力的技 术因素，欧洲、日本和中国的债券市场有望因美国资本外流而受益。 笔者预计，较长期利率市场的波动将持续加剧。虽然发达市场的收益率曲线已趋于正常化，但由于 持续的 ...

地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 2025 年 5 月 1 9 日—5 月 23 日 总第 563 期 信用利差周报 【信用利差周报2025年第16期】政治局会 议强调四稳，再提创新推出债市"科技版" 释放哪些信号? 2025-4-29 【信用利差周报2025年第15期】财政部启 动超长期特别国债发行，交易商协会发布 估值指引优化估值生态 2025-4-22 2025 年第 19 期 债券市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 侯天成 tchhou@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差周报2025年第18期】货币政策 报告强调优化债市结构与制度安排，债券 收益率走势分化 2025-5-20 【信用利差周报2025年第17期】新规落地 后科创债密集发行，中美关税大幅互降 2025-5-13 【信用利差周报2025年第14期】美债遭遇 大规模抛售，四部门发文推动债券融资支 持体育产业 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

广西柳州市轨道交通投资发展集团有限公司债券主承销商备选库入库公告 各债券主承销商： 1.具备公司债券与企业债券主承销商资质，上一年证监会证券公司分类评级结果为BB及以上； 2.近三年期间任意一年在全国公司债券与企业债券承销规模排名为前60名（wind口径）； 3.具备良好的团队协调能力和服务质量，具有良好的销售能力及销售资源，广西地区公司债券承销规模排名靠前的优先； 4.如主承销商具有优质战略资源并提供服务，可适当放宽入库标准。 为规范广西柳州市轨道交通投资发展集团有限公司（以下简称"市轨道集团"）及下属企业委托债券主承销商管理工作，确保债券主承销商为企业提供高效、 优质的服务，市轨道集团将进一步完善债券主承销商备选库，组织开展2025年债券主承销商备选库增选工作，现将有关事项公告如下： 一、入库选聘资格 （一）拟入库的公司债券及企业债券主承销商应当满足以下条件： （二）拟选聘的中国银行间市场交易商协会产品主承销商应当具备以下条件： 1.具备中国银行间市场交易商协会产品承销商资质； 2.具备良好的团队协调能力和服务质量，在广西地区协会债券承销排名靠前的优先； 3.在广西地区设有分支机构的优先； （二）申请中国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends and rankings in the Chinese bond underwriting and syndicate loan markets for the first half of 2025, showcasing the performance of various financial institutions [2][3][5]. - The total issuance of Panda bonds reached 208.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a decrease of 18.12% to 96.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5]. - The overall issuance of credit bonds in China for the first half of 2025 was approximately 8.8 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.41% compared to the same period in 2024 [12]. Group 2 - The top three underwriters in the Chinese bond market for the first half of 2025 were CITIC Securities (5.813%), Industrial Bank (5.609%), and Guotai Junan Securities (5.604%) [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond market (excluding certificates of deposit), the leading banks were Bank of China (5.772%), Guotai Junan Securities (4.952%), and CICC (4.330%) [20]. - The issuance of offshore bonds by Chinese enterprises (excluding certificates of deposit) exceeded 733.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of approximately 13.65% compared to the previous year [21]. Group 3 - The total issuance of syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) reached 216.6 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a decline of 18% year-on-year [26]. - The top three underwriters in the Asia-Pacific syndicated loan market were Bank of China (6.12%), DBS Bank (4.56%), and Korea National Bank (4.15%) [28]. - The Chinese onshore syndicated loan market saw a significant decline of 67% in issuance, while the offshore market experienced a growth of 50% [30]. Group 4 - The issuance of green syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) increased by 61% year-on-year, reaching 33.4 billion USD, marking a historical high since 2014 [35]. - The major contributors to the growth of green loans were Australia, Singapore, and China, accounting for 27%, 13%, and 12% of the market share, respectively [35].

Group 1 - The junk bond market is signaling optimism similar to the U.S. stock market, with the spread between junk bonds and government bonds narrowing to a historical low of approximately 2.88 percentage points, the lowest since 2021 [1][2] - Data from FactSet indicates that the iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF achieved a total return of 5% in the first half of 2025, while the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) recorded a total return of 4.8%, with a monthly return of 2% in June, marking the best monthly performance since July 2024 [2] - Nicholas Colas suggests that the current narrowing of spreads reflects a high level of economic confidence, similar to that seen in 2021 during strong fiscal and monetary support [2] Group 2 - Despite concerns over tariff policies, industry experts believe the impact on the U.S. economy is manageable, and tariffs are not expected to trigger a recession [3] - The current yield on U.S. junk bonds is approximately 7%, but it may fluctuate with changes in spreads, indicating a tighter credit market compared to pre-2008 financial crisis conditions [3] - Michael Chang expresses a cautious outlook on the retail sector due to exposure to tariffs, while favoring defensive high-yield sectors such as healthcare, food and beverage, and utilities to mitigate potential volatility [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. junk bond market is showing optimistic economic signals despite recent uncertainties related to tariffs, indicating that investors do not expect a recession [1][3] - The current spread between high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is approximately 2.88 percentage points, lower than any point in 2021, reflecting strong market confidence [3] - The performance of the high-yield bond market aligns with trends observed in large-cap U.S. stocks, suggesting a bullish sentiment among bond investors, who are typically more cautious than stock market participants [3] Group 2 - The total return for iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG.US) was 5% for the first half of 2025, while SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK.US) recorded a return of 4.8% [4] - In July, the junk bond market experienced a slight pullback due to renewed focus on tariff developments, particularly following announcements of new tariffs on imports [4] - The average annual yield in the U.S. high-yield bond market is currently around 7%, although this yield may fluctuate with changes in spreads [5]

在上半年债券发行放量、利率大幅波动的背景下，下半年债市的走向成为各方关注的焦点。综合多家机 构观点，下半年债市预计维持震荡格局，10年期国债收益率波动区间或维持在1.5%~1.8%之间。 市场分析人士指出，下半年债市运行将受到经济增长动能、政策协同效应、债务化解进展等多重因素的 综合影响，投资者需在复杂多变的市场环境中寻找结构性机遇。 规模扩容与利率波动交织 规模扩容与利率波动交织，成为2025年上半年债券市场的显著特征。 Wind数据显示，上半年债市总发行量达27.29万亿元，同比增幅接近24%。其中，利率债作为绝对主 力，发行量达16.9万亿元，占比近四成。在利率债中，国债发行7.89万亿元，地方债发行5.49万亿元， 共同构成了核心驱动力。 三季度在资金面宽松延续、央行流动性管理预期以及潜在降息空间的共同支撑下，做多胜率相对较高。 2025年上半年，债券市场在规模扩容与利率波动的交织影响下，呈现出复杂多变的格局。 Wind数据显示，上半年债市总发行量突破27万亿元，其中利率债占比近四成。与此同时，债市利率剧 烈波动，10年期国债收益率在一季度上行30个基点后，于二季度又快速下行，形成"倒V"形走势。 伴 ...

近日，公募基金二季报开始披露。 7月6日，国元证券发布旗下国元元赢六个月资管计划2025年第二季度报告；7月7日，汇安基金旗下汇安 永福90天中短债披露二季度报告。 从基金经理二季度的运作思路来看，有基金经理指出，随着权益市场回暖，风险偏好在缓慢回升，部分 债券投资的策略转向了持券获取票息收益。不过，若下半年流动性继续宽裕，债市仍有可能延续强势。 基金经理提高企业债配置比重 从上述两只债券基金的运作来看，基金经理都对企业债有不同程度的加仓。 二季报显示，汇安永福90天中短债A份额、C份额在二季度的净值增长率分别为0.96%和0.91%；国元元 赢六个月资管计划二季度的净值增长率为0.79%。 记者注意到，基金经理仍看好未来的债市表现。国元元赢六个月资管计划的基金经理在季报总结中就表 示，下半年如果流动性继续宽裕，再加上财政政策货币政策的支持，债市可能延续强势。 二季度债基频现大额赎回 事实上，今年二季度，债市走得比较"纠结"。一方面，缺乏此前持续的债牛行情；另一方面，其他类型 债券资产的配置风险较高，使得许多债基基金经理面临配置难的尴尬。不仅如此，许多基金在二季度出 现了大额赎回的情形。 值得关注的是，从基金 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese financial industry, particularly focusing on social financing (社融) and credit demand trends in 2025 [1][3][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Social Financing Growth**: In June 2025, social financing is expected to reach approximately 3.8 trillion yuan, driven mainly by government bonds and corporate bonds, with a notable increase in government bond net financing close to 1.4 trillion yuan [3][4]. - **Weak Credit Demand**: Credit demand remains weak due to the de-leveraging of the economy and overcapacity in the manufacturing sector, leading to a preference for bond investments over loans among leading manufacturing firms [1][6][7]. - **Government Bonds vs. Credit**: The proportion of government bonds in social financing is anticipated to surpass that of credit, indicating a significant shift in the financing structure in the coming years [1][9]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank has shown a tendency towards a loose monetary policy, with short-term interest rates significantly reduced, which is expected to support the credit bond market [8][17]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There is a recommendation to focus on low-risk, high-yield credit bonds, as many institutions are optimistic about the market but believe the upside is limited [1][8]. Additional Important Content - **Credit Bond ETF Performance**: New credit bond ETFs have gained popularity, with a total market value expansion to 128.2 billion yuan by June 2025, indicating strong market interest [20][21]. - **Investor Structure**: The newly listed credit bond ETFs are primarily held by brokerage firms, leading to potential instability due to their preference for short-duration assets [21]. - **Yield Comparisons**: The reduction in deposit rates is expected to bring high-grade credit bond yields closer to bank deposit rates, enhancing their attractiveness [12]. - **Future Financing Structure**: The financing structure in China is expected to evolve, with a growing emphasis on stable income products and government bonds, reflecting a shift in investor preferences [9][18]. - **Market Data Reliability**: Recent updates to financial data reporting have led to discrepancies, making it essential to rely on authoritative sources for accurate market analysis [14][30]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights significant trends in the Chinese financial industry, particularly the shift towards government bonds and the implications of weak credit demand. Investors are advised to focus on stable, low-risk credit opportunities while being cautious of market volatility and data reliability issues.