【内容摘要】1月5日，资金面整体宽松；债市走弱；转债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期 国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【交易商协会：加大对债券交易记录相关违规行为惩戒力度】1月4日，银行间市场交易商协会发布关于提示做好债券交易记录保存相关工作的通知。交易商 协会将加大对相关违规行为的惩戒力度，对存在以下问题的机构将从严从重处理，根据具体违规行为的情节轻重给予相应自律处分，具体包括：一、未按规 定建立健全债券交易记录保存相关内控制度；二、合规风控流于形式，未有效落实债券交易记录保存相关内控制度；三、债券交易记录未按规定全程留痕； 四、对涉嫌严重违法违规的交易，无法提供完整交易记录还原交易真相；五、其他违反债券交易记录保存相关要求的行为。 【财政部拟于1月9日续发10年期附息国债，招标面值总额1800亿元】财政部拟第二次续发行2025年记账式附息（二十二期）国债。本次续发行国债为10年期 固定利率附息债，竞争性招标面值总额1800亿元，不进行甲类成员追加投标。招标时间2026年1月9日上午10:35至11:35。 【商务部等9部门：探索建 ...

在2025年12月22日至12月26日当周，第一财经研究院中国金融条件日度指数均值为-2.25，基本与前一 周持平。从指数的成分指标来看，上周货币和股市指标指向宽松，债券指标指向紧缩。从货币指标来 看，央行维持稳定的货币投放，市场资金面平稳有序，主要货币市场利率低位运行。从债券市场来看， 利率债与信用债收益率同步下降，信用利差小幅扩张。从股市指标来看，A股市盈率与成交量同步上 升。 12月24日，人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会内容公布。会议内容延续了12月中旬中央经济 工作会议针对货币政策的描述，释放出一系列关键政策信号，我们的解读如下： （1）在判断国内外经济金融形势方面，会议指出"当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不 足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济 运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。"会议 延续了中央经济工作会议对于我国经济目前"供强需弱"的描述，这也是政策促进物价合理回升的着力 点。 （2）会议指出，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政 ...

步入2026年，债市将如何演绎？业内专家指出，2026年，债市仍将处于多空因素交织博弈的复杂环境中 ——宽松货币政策与经济弱复苏的核心矛盾将主导市场走向。 就偏多因素而言，货币政策适度宽松的基调将构成核心支撑。来自中金公司的研究观点认为，若2026年 美国进一步降息，中国汇率约束将有所减弱，为应对人民币升值压力，不排除管理层加快货币政策放松 节奏的可能，即货币市场利率存在补降空间，这将直接推动债券收益率曲线牛市变陡。 华西证券宏观团队则表示，2026年一季度靠后时段，财政将面临政府债净发行高基数压力，彼时货币政 策加力的可能性料上升，预计2026全年一至三季度的降息幅度将达20BP，为债市提供阶段性交易窗 口。 新华财经上海1月4日电 2025年四季度，债市呈现出明显的结构性分化特征，利率债与信用债走势逐步 背离。2026年债市会否延续弱震荡格局？哪些因素将左右债市表现？利率债和信用债能否继续布局？ 利率修复回暖信用利差分化 刚过去的2025年末，利率债市场走出了全年"M"型震荡格局的收尾修复行情。 自2025年三季度多重利空因素推动债市出现熊陡回调后，四季度利率债市场便开启了震荡修复走势，短 端利率修复幅度 ...

赎回新规落地，3-5 年修复窗口打开 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 260104 本报告导读： 年末信用债发行缩量，机构交易热度不高；中短端仍然是主要活跃期限，可关注 3 年品种骑乘机会；赎回新规落地后，3-5 年普信债/二永债或迎来阶段性修复行情。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 | | 021-23185652 | | --- | --- | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | | | 王宇辰(分析师) | | | 010-83939801 | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 曲径分岔：政策分化中把握中久期良机 2026.01.03 回望 25 年，高弹性强动量占优 2026.01.02 利率互换 IRS 能预测资金松紧甚至降息吗？ 2025.12.31 关注信用债 3Y-1Y 的骑乘机会 2025.12.29 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent approval of 18 brokerages for non-financial corporate debt financing tool underwriting qualifications marks a significant step in the development of China's bond market, enhancing the service quality for the real economy and increasing direct financing's share [1][5]. Group 1: Qualification Expansion - 18 brokerages have been approved, forming a clear three-tier business structure, reflecting regulatory precision in managing bond underwriting [2][3]. - Six brokerages, including Caitong Securities and Huatai United, have obtained general lead underwriter qualifications, allowing them to independently lead various debt financing products [2][3]. - One brokerage, Zhongyin Securities, has secured a special lead underwriter qualification focused on technology innovation debt financing tools, benefiting from policy support [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The entry of these 18 brokerages is expected to disrupt the existing market structure, which has been dominated by large banks and a few leading brokerages, where brokerages previously held less than 30% of the lead underwriting qualifications in the interbank market [5][6]. - The new qualifications enable brokerages to independently participate in the interbank market, previously requiring collaboration with banks, thus allowing them to retain a larger share of underwriting fees [5][6]. Group 3: Business Opportunities - The qualification expansion provides brokerages with broader opportunities in fixed income business, allowing them to build a full-chain service capability from issuance to trading and market-making [7]. - The diverse range of non-financial corporate debt financing tools, including short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, complements the existing products in the exchange market, enhancing the overall bond service system [7][8]. - The competition in the bond underwriting market is expected to intensify, leading to a more reasonable underwriting fee structure and providing issuers with more options [8]. Group 4: Future Implications - Leading brokerages with strong capital and risk control systems are likely to dominate high-quality projects, while smaller brokerages may need to adopt differentiated strategies to survive [8]. - The approval of qualifications is not a permanent solution; ongoing regulatory oversight will require brokerages to enhance their risk management and pricing capabilities to capitalize on the benefits of their new qualifications [8].

国债的发行主体是国家（或其授权的财政部门），其信用基础依托于国家的综合经济实力、财政收支稳 定性与主权信用背书。企业债的发行主体为企业法人，信用基础则是发行企业的经营能力、财务健康状 况及市场竞争力。这一根本区别决定了两类债券在信用风险层面的核心差异，是其他风险差异的源头。 国债的本息偿付依赖于国家财政收入，包括税收收入、国有资产收益等稳定来源，偿付能力具有高度可 靠性。根据2025年修订的《中华人民共和国预算法》相关规定，国债发行需纳入财政预算管理，确保偿 债资金的合理安排与足额保障。企业债的本息偿付则依赖于发行企业的经营性现金流与利润，若企业出 现经营亏损、现金流断裂等情况，将无法按时足额偿付本息，这是企业债与国债在偿付风险上的关键区 别。 从市场实践来看，国债在全球主要经济体中均保持着极低的违约记录，我国国债自发行以来未发生过违 约事件。而企业债的违约风险与发行主体的信用状况直接相关，信用等级较低的企业债违约概率相对较 高，信用等级较高的企业债违约概率较低，但仍存在违约风险。这一客观事实反映了两类债券在违约风 险上的显著差异。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是专业的金融信息服务平台，专注于 ...

固定收益周报 成交规模继续增长，信用利差分化 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2025 年 12 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 16 证 券 研 究 报 核心观点： 本期（12 月 22 日至 12 月 28 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率有所分化， 表现为高等级多数下行，中低等级多数上行态势，整体变化幅度为-3 BP 至 2 BP。 本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持零发行，公司债、定向工具发行金额 减少，中期票据、短期融资券发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比减少，公司债、 短期融资券、定向工具净融资额减少，企业债、中期票据净融资额增加，企业债、 短期融资券、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、中期票据净融资额为正。二级市 场方面，本期信用债成交金额环比增长，企业债、公司债、中期票据、定向工具 成交金额增加，短期融资券成交金额减少。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数 下行。信用利差方面，本期中短期票据、企业债、城投债信用利差有所分化，1 年期、7 年期多数走阔，3 年期、5 年期多数收窄。分位数来看，多 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of industrial bonds in 2025, as well as a financial analysis of different industries, aiming to provide investors with a reference for investment decisions [1][34][61] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - As of December 26, 2025, a total of 15,700 narrow - caliber credit bonds have been issued in 2025, with a total scale of 13.91 trillion yuan. After excluding urban investment bonds, 7,440 industrial bonds have been issued, with a total scale of 8.60 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [1][10] - 16 industries have an annual issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the top - ranked industries in terms of issuance scale being public utilities (1.95 trillion yuan/1,060 bonds), non - bank finance (1.38 trillion yuan/1,407 bonds), and transportation (1.00 trillion yuan/805 bonds) [1][13] - In terms of bond types, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and corporate bonds have relatively high issuance amounts, accounting for 41.3%, 34.6%, and 23.0% respectively. Among special varieties, the annual issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds accounts for over 20%, and that of green bonds accounts for 4% [16] - The scale of industrial bonds issued by central and local state - owned enterprises accounts for over 90%, and the issuers' credit ratings are mainly concentrated at the AAA level. Geographically, Beijing has the largest issuance scale, followed by Guangdong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu [20] - In terms of issuance term, the issuance scale of industrial bonds with a term of 1 year or less is the largest, accounting for 35.7%, followed by 1 - 3 years (35.1%) and 3 - 5 years (19.8%) [28] - In terms of issuance interest rate, the proportion of industrial bonds with a coupon rate of 2% or less is the highest, reaching 57%, followed by 2% - 3% (40%), and the average annual issuance coupon rate is 2.15% [31] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trend Review - Since the beginning of the year, affected by policies, funds, and market preferences, the yield of credit bonds has experienced two rounds of first rising and then falling, showing an M - shaped trend, which can be divided into four stages [34] - From the beginning of the year to mid - March, the yield rose rapidly, and the credit spread widened to the highest level of the year. From late March to early July, the yield declined continuously, and the credit spread narrowed. From mid - July to the end of September, the yield rose again, and the credit spread widened. From October to now, the yield has declined fluctuantly, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened [34][35][36] 2.2 Overview of Outstanding Industrial Bonds - As of December 26, 2025, there are 13,625 outstanding industrial bonds in the narrow - caliber credit bond market, with a total scale of 15.39 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [39] - The public utilities and non - bank finance industries have an outstanding industrial bond scale of over 2 trillion yuan, significantly leading other industries. The issuers of outstanding industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in high - grade central and local state - owned enterprises [39][41] - The weighted average remaining term of outstanding industrial bonds is 3.08 years. Industries with a longer weighted average remaining term include comprehensive, communication, and coal, while industries with a shorter term include media, light manufacturing, and national defense and military industry [46][49] - In terms of implicit ratings, AA(2) and AA - rated industrial bonds account for 25% in total, ranking first, followed by AA+ (24%) and AAA (19%) [52] - Taking AAA - rated industrial bonds as an example, industries such as real estate, coal, and pharmaceutical biology have relatively high spreads, with certain yield - mining potential [58] 3. Industry - Specific Financial Analysis 3.1 Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. Among the 29 industries, 11 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total revenue, with machinery and equipment and computer industries leading in revenue growth [62] - The total net profit of industrial bond issuers reached 2.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.32%. 16 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total net profit, with textile and apparel and steel industries leading in growth [62] - The non - bank finance industry has a net profit margin of over 30%, far higher than other industries, followed by environmental protection and public utilities industries, with a net profit margin of over 10% [62] 3.2 Debt Situation - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries such as building decoration and real estate have relatively high debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of over 70%, while industries such as national defense and military industry and media have relatively low debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of less than 50% [64] - The total interest - bearing debt of industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. Only 4 industries, including communication, textile and apparel, electronics, and real estate, saw a year - on - year decrease in total interest - bearing debt [64] - Industries such as non - bank finance, public utilities, and social services have a relatively high proportion of interest - bearing debt to total liabilities, over 70%, while industries such as automobile and national defense and military industry have a relatively low proportion, less than 45%, with relatively low debt - repayment pressure [64] 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries with strong short - term debt - repayment ability include textile and apparel, national defense and military industry, media, and light manufacturing, with a coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt of over 100%, while industries such as non - bank finance, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical have relatively weak short - term debt - repayment ability, with a coverage ratio of less than 50% [66] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of operating cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 18.40% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive operating cash flow, 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net inflow of financing cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 145.37% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive financing cash flow, 6 industries, including electronics and environmental protection, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net outflow of investment cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 14.33% year - on - year, with an overall increase in investment expenditure. All 29 industries had a net outflow of investment cash flow, and 19 industries, including comprehensive and computer, saw an increase in investment expenditure [68]

债券是金融市场中重要的固定收益类投资工具，国债与企业债作为其中的核心品类，因发行主体、信用 基础、发行目的等核心要素不同，在风险特征上存在显著差异。了解这些差异有助于投资者清晰认识不 同债券产品的风险属性，以下从多个维度进行科普分析。 信用风险是两者最核心的差异。国债由国家财政部门代表中央政府发行，以国家信用为偿债保障。根据 2025年修订的《中华人民共和国国债法》相关规定，国债的还本付息受国家财政实力和信用体系的严格 保障，其信用风险处于极低水平。企业债则由境内企业依照法定程序发行，以企业自身的经营收益和资 产作为偿债来源，信用风险程度与发行企业的财务状况、盈利能力、行业前景等密切相关，不同企业发 行的债券信用风险差异较大，其风险水平通常可通过专业信用评级机构的评级结果参考判断，整体信用 风险显著高于国债。 兑付风险方面，国债的兑付具有最高级别的稳定性。国家财政通过税收、国债发行收入等稳定现金流支 撑，能够确保按时足额向投资者支付本金和利息，几乎不存在兑付违约的可能性。企业债的兑付则依赖 于企业的经营成果和现金流健康程度，若企业出现经营亏损、资金链断裂等问题，可能导致无法按时还 本付息，甚至发生实质性违约， ...

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 本报告导读： 年末多空力量进入新均衡后，可能发生什么 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | 空方开始止盈了吗 | [Table_Authors] | 唐元懋(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 0755-23976753 | | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | 年末多空力量进入新均衡后，可能发生什么 | | 孙越(分析师) | | | | 021-38031033 | | 投资要点： | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | [Table_Summary] 12 月中上旬以来，债市快速回调的实质在于机构多头力量的缺失与 | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 特许经营权领跌，指数加速下探 2025.12.21 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251215- 251219） 2025.12.20 年内地方债发行金额突破 10 万亿 ...