Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rubber market is facing challenges due to cost pressures, weak demand, and intense price competition among manufacturers [2] - Thailand's meteorological department has warned of potential heavy rainfall and flooding from July 20-22, which could impact rubber production [2] - Upcoming policy changes in Malaysia, including mandatory pension contributions for foreign workers and expanded latex import sales tax, are expected to further increase production costs [2] Group 2 - According to recent data, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports for the first half of 2025 reached 751,672 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared to 672,585 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - Cambodia's latex exports for the first half of 2025 decreased by 20% to 112,595 tons, down from 140,653 tons in the same period last year [2] - Domestic rubber production in China is being disrupted by rainfall, limiting the pace of raw material output, while Southeast Asia's new rubber release remains slow [3] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a potential rebound in rubber prices, although the fundamental logic suggests prices may fluctuate downwards [3] - Downstream product demand is currently in a low season, with new orders falling short of last year's levels, resulting in high finished product inventories that pressure some companies' operations [3] - Technical analysis suggests that rubber prices are likely to maintain a strong fluctuation trend in the near term, with recommendations for a bullish trading strategy [3]

Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of June 5, cup rubber is priced at 44.70 THB/kg (+0.15), while latex remains at 56.00 THB/kg (0) [1] - The purchasing price for Yunnan rubber water is 12,900 CNY/ton (0), and Hainan fresh latex is 13,700 CNY/ton (0) [1] - In the Shanghai market, full latex is priced at 13,500 CNY/ton (-100), and Thai standard in the Qingdao bonded area is at 1,690 USD/ton (-10) [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.05%, down 8.46 percentage points month-on-month and 16.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Full steel tire sample enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 55.65%, down 5.15 percentage points month-on-month and 5.94 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.84 days, down 0.38 days month-on-month and up 12.80 days year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for full steel tire sample enterprises is 41.87 days, down 0.09 days month-on-month and down 3.48 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Export Data and Market Trends - In the first five months of 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber export volume reached 629,672 tons, a 7.9% increase from 583,437 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - In May alone, the export volume increased by 23.2% year-on-year but decreased by 9.6% month-on-month [2] - The increase in exports is driven by farmers shifting from cocoa to rubber due to stable income [2] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southeast Asia's heavy rainfall continues to impact supply output, but expectations for increased supply are anticipated post-rain [2] - Tire companies are experiencing a decline in production due to maintenance schedules, leading to a decrease in inventory levels, although year-on-year inventory remains high [2] - Short-term macroeconomic recovery is expected to drive a rebound in rubber prices, but with supply increasing and demand weak, prices are likely to remain under pressure [2]