Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend in the energy and chemical sector remains clear, and short positions entered before August/September should be held [1] - The short - term decline in the crude oil market is mainly driven by macro factors, while the long - term decline is due to the supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure from the OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season [2] - For most products in the energy and chemical sector, both macro and fundamental factors are driving the prices down, with the exception of some products that may have short - term technical rebounds [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand. Technical rebounds, if any, may be limited [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [2] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Macro factors put pressure on the market, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to high supply, high inventory, and low downstream demand [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5] Rubber - Logic: Macro factors accelerate the decline, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to the sharp decline in downstream demand and the high probability of increased supply [7] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [7] Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - Logic: The main driver is the downward pressure on the cost side of butadiene. Macro factors also have a short - term bearish impact [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [12] PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold newly covered short positions [14] PTA - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions entered last night [18] PP - Logic: Macro factors bring pressure, and the high - supply pattern remains unchanged. The improvement in supply - demand is not realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [20] Methanol - Logic: Macro factors have some pressure, and there is high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in Iranian methanol plant operation. It can be used as a long - position hedge [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously and use 2350 as the final stop - profit point. It can be used as a long - position after breaking through the pressure [24] PVC - Logic: Macro factors have a bearish impact, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to high supply, high inventory, and low demand [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Macro factors are bearish, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to increased supply and low demand [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [31] Plastic - Logic: The supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [33] Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern is intensifying, and the demand is not expected to improve. The downward pressure on the market remains [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [37] Caustic Soda - Logic: There is an expectation of supply reduction due to plant maintenance, and the downstream demand is recovering. The current valuation is low, so it is not advisable to short [39] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. The overall fundamentals are neutral, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided on October 5 to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a lower increase than previous rumors. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. Device maintenance has decreased, production has increased, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and overall demand support is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,080 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 3, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price also fluctuating. The agricultural film start - up rate has slightly increased but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production in November, with limited support for the cost side. New production capacity from Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, supply is abundant, and demand from the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations. The average downstream start - up rate is maintained at around 50%, and overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, showing a bullish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price fluctuating, new production capacity put into operation, and the downstream average start - up rate maintained. The industrial inventory is moderately high [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,080 (-80), the price of the 01 contract is 7,077 (-76), the basis is 3 (-4), the warehouse receipt is 12,729 (-7), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), and the PE social inventory is 525,000 tons (0) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,780 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,745 (-107), the basis is 35 (+107), the warehouse receipt is 14,030 (-68), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), and the PP social inventory is 372,000 tons (+91,000) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain changes, and the PE import dependence has gradually decreased [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed, and the PP import dependence has also decreased [16].

Report Core View - Short - term supply of ferroalloys increases while demand decreases, leading to a decline in ferroalloys among black varieties. The supply of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon is on an accelerating upward trend, and the demand for steel - making is affected in the short term. The futures market may be under pressure, with a short - term bearish outlook [1][5] Market Conditions - The SM2601 contract closed at 5914 today, down 206 points or 3.37% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 18.59%. The SF2601 contract closed at 5652, down 214 points or 3.65% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 21.39% [4] Influencing Factors - Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40% [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 29,580 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the daily average output was 16,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.43% or 535 tons [4] Analysis and Suggestions - The resumption of production of ferroalloy enterprises is accelerating, and the supply is increasing, which puts pressure on the prices of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon. The approaching military parade on September 3rd has led to production restrictions in steel mills, affecting the short - term demand for ferroalloys in steel - making. The increasing hedging demand of enterprises may suppress the futures market, and the short - term outlook is bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a short - term bearish view on the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures [5] Report's Core View - The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased while demand has decreased, which may suppress the futures prices of the two products in the short term [4][5] Summary by Related Content Disk Situation - The SM2601 contract closed at 5914 today, down 206 points or 3.37% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 18.59%. The SF2601 contract closed at 5652, down 214 points or 3.65% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 21.39% [4] Influencing Factors - Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40% [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 29,580 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the daily average output was 16,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.43% or 535 tons [4] Analysis and Suggestions - The start - up of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises increased significantly last week. According to the spot cost, manufacturers' profitability is good, and previously shut - down enterprises are actively resuming production. The supply is on an accelerating upward trend, which suppresses the prices of the two products. On the other hand, due to the approaching September 3rd parade, steel mills have received production restriction notices, which will affect the daily output of hot metal by about 100,000 tons. The short - term demand for the two products in steelmaking is affected. In the futures market, the increasing hedging demand of enterprises may suppress the futures prices [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rubber market is facing challenges due to cost pressures, weak demand, and intense price competition among manufacturers [2] - Thailand's meteorological department has warned of potential heavy rainfall and flooding from July 20-22, which could impact rubber production [2] - Upcoming policy changes in Malaysia, including mandatory pension contributions for foreign workers and expanded latex import sales tax, are expected to further increase production costs [2] Group 2 - According to recent data, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports for the first half of 2025 reached 751,672 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared to 672,585 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - Cambodia's latex exports for the first half of 2025 decreased by 20% to 112,595 tons, down from 140,653 tons in the same period last year [2] - Domestic rubber production in China is being disrupted by rainfall, limiting the pace of raw material output, while Southeast Asia's new rubber release remains slow [3] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a potential rebound in rubber prices, although the fundamental logic suggests prices may fluctuate downwards [3] - Downstream product demand is currently in a low season, with new orders falling short of last year's levels, resulting in high finished product inventories that pressure some companies' operations [3] - Technical analysis suggests that rubber prices are likely to maintain a strong fluctuation trend in the near term, with recommendations for a bullish trading strategy [3]