金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 主力合约：12月11日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天上涨0.69%，基差走强至-17元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4645元/吨，较前一交易日上涨33元/吨。成本端布伦特原油跌倒62美元以下，OPEC+会议维持26年1 季度暂停增产决议；供给端PTA产能利用率73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.86天，环比减少0.06天。 主力动向：空头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，库存格局逐步转向累库。下游聚酯开工高位小幅下降，预计终端需求将进一步转弱； PTA加工费区间在170元左右，短期预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 1 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA MEG 主力合约：12月11日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601下跌2. ...

碳酸锂市场震荡回调，供增需减预期主导价 格下行 --碳酸锂周报2025年12月1日-12月5日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周内下跌2.36%至91100元/吨，工业级下跌 | | | | 2.4%至89650元/吨，市场情绪转弱。期货深度贴水，基差环比大幅收窄66.03%至 | | | | 1060元/吨，反映现货压力相对更大。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度下跌4.42%至92160元/吨，周内波动剧烈， | | | | 【供应方面】：12月国内碳酸锂产量预计环比增长3%，但盐湖季节性减产构成短 | | | | 期扰动。周度产能利用率维持在75.34%的高位，供应整体充裕。 | 未来1-2周，市 | | | 【需求方面】：需求端出现分化，储能电芯排产维持增长构成支撑，但下游正极 | 场或延续偏弱震 | | | 材料12月排产计划环比下滑，新能源车增速放缓，市场 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, lacking upward drivers. The supply is expected to remain loose due to limited future device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, while the demand is approaching the end of the peak season with limited future growth potential. The LLDPE social inventory has a high absolute level, and the de - stocking expectation is weak, resulting in large supply - demand pressure [1]. - In the short term, PE is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The recent sharp decline in the PE disk is due to the weak performance of LLDPE spot, the lack of follow - up in the spot market during the previous disk rise, and the shift of the PE fundamentals to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [5]. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the sharp increase in the supply of non - standard products may be transmitted to LLDPE and suppress its price [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply: Future PE device maintenance is expected to be limited, and the restart of previously shut - down devices will increase the supply, keeping it loose. - Demand: The peak season of downstream demand is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining, with limited future demand growth [1]. - Inventory: The LLDPE social inventory is de - stocking, but the absolute level is still high, and the de - stocking expectation is weak under the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. - Price range: L2601 is between 6600 - 6900. - Strategy suggestion: Consider selling call options [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Basis strategy: None for now. - Spread strategy: 1 - 5 reverse spread. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Short - term focus on the narrowing of the L - P spread [11]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative information: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton LDPE/EVA device is planned to start production soon [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - This week's spot market transactions were generally weak, but there was speculative replenishment by downstream enterprises when the disk dropped sharply on Thursday. - Attention should be paid to the Central Economic Work Conference on December 8th and the National Fiscal Work Conference [14][17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: After a rebound last week, the PE disk has entered a downward oscillating trend again. - Capital movement: The position of the 01 contract has decreased as it approaches delivery. There was no significant change in the top - five long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the top - five profitable seats increased slightly, and the long positions of the main profitable seats decreased this week, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [19]. - Basis structure: Due to the continuous pessimistic industrial sentiment, the spot price was suppressed, causing a sharp decline in the disk on Thursday and Friday, and the basis strengthened passively. As of Friday, the North China basis was 26 yuan/ton (up 85 from last week), the East China basis was 186 yuan/ton (up 95), and the South China basis was 176 yuan/ton (up 35) [23]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure because of the relatively optimistic market expectation for the future macro - situation and the limited production capacity expansion of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year, which may ease the supply - demand pressure of standard products [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakening of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines have been compressed [29]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: Although device maintenance has increased recently, the high existing production capacity and the commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter have made it difficult to relieve the supply pressure. Overseas supply - demand is also weak, and imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total supply. - Demand: At the end of the year, the agricultural film operating rate is expected to decline, weakening the rigid support on the demand side and intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [37]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 84.05% (- 0.46%). Some devices such as Dushanzi Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical entered maintenance this week, causing a slight decline in the operating rate. The operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to limited planned maintenance at the end of the year. Zhejiang Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production soon, and Yulong Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production early next year, indicating large supply pressure [43]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The PE price in the US market has stabilized and rebounded, and the offers from the US have decreased recently. Although imports are expected to increase slightly from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, in the long - run, PE imports are expected to be gradually replaced by domestic supply. - Export: Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for expanding export channels this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [52]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 44.3% (- 0.54%). Among them, the agricultural film operating rate is 48.02% (- 0.92%), the packaging film operating rate is 50.22% (- 0.48%), the pipe operating rate is 31.83% (0%), the injection molding operating rate is 49.55% (- 0.5%), the hollow operating rate is 38.38% (- 0.74%), and the drawing operating rate is 33.02% (- 1.1%). The comprehensive operating rate of PE has declined this week, especially the agricultural film production has entered the off - season with an obvious decline in the operating rate. The future growth space of PE demand is limited, intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend in the energy and chemical sector remains clear, and short positions entered before August/September should be held [1] - The short - term decline in the crude oil market is mainly driven by macro factors, while the long - term decline is due to the supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure from the OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season [2] - For most products in the energy and chemical sector, both macro and fundamental factors are driving the prices down, with the exception of some products that may have short - term technical rebounds [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand. Technical rebounds, if any, may be limited [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [2] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Macro factors put pressure on the market, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to high supply, high inventory, and low downstream demand [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5] Rubber - Logic: Macro factors accelerate the decline, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to the sharp decline in downstream demand and the high probability of increased supply [7] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [7] Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - Logic: The main driver is the downward pressure on the cost side of butadiene. Macro factors also have a short - term bearish impact [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [12] PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold newly covered short positions [14] PTA - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions entered last night [18] PP - Logic: Macro factors bring pressure, and the high - supply pattern remains unchanged. The improvement in supply - demand is not realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [20] Methanol - Logic: Macro factors have some pressure, and there is high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in Iranian methanol plant operation. It can be used as a long - position hedge [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously and use 2350 as the final stop - profit point. It can be used as a long - position after breaking through the pressure [24] PVC - Logic: Macro factors have a bearish impact, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to high supply, high inventory, and low demand [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Macro factors are bearish, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to increased supply and low demand [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [31] Plastic - Logic: The supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [33] Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern is intensifying, and the demand is not expected to improve. The downward pressure on the market remains [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [37] Caustic Soda - Logic: There is an expectation of supply reduction due to plant maintenance, and the downstream demand is recovering. The current valuation is low, so it is not advisable to short [39] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. The overall fundamentals are neutral, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided on October 5 to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a lower increase than previous rumors. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. Device maintenance has decreased, production has increased, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and overall demand support is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,080 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 3, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price also fluctuating. The agricultural film start - up rate has slightly increased but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production in November, with limited support for the cost side. New production capacity from Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, supply is abundant, and demand from the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations. The average downstream start - up rate is maintained at around 50%, and overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, showing a bullish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price fluctuating, new production capacity put into operation, and the downstream average start - up rate maintained. The industrial inventory is moderately high [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,080 (-80), the price of the 01 contract is 7,077 (-76), the basis is 3 (-4), the warehouse receipt is 12,729 (-7), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), and the PE social inventory is 525,000 tons (0) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,780 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,745 (-107), the basis is 35 (+107), the warehouse receipt is 14,030 (-68), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), and the PP social inventory is 372,000 tons (+91,000) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain changes, and the PE import dependence has gradually decreased [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed, and the PP import dependence has also decreased [16].

Report Core View - Short - term supply of ferroalloys increases while demand decreases, leading to a decline in ferroalloys among black varieties. The supply of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon is on an accelerating upward trend, and the demand for steel - making is affected in the short term. The futures market may be under pressure, with a short - term bearish outlook [1][5] Market Conditions - The SM2601 contract closed at 5914 today, down 206 points or 3.37% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 18.59%. The SF2601 contract closed at 5652, down 214 points or 3.65% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 21.39% [4] Influencing Factors - Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40% [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 29,580 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the daily average output was 16,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.43% or 535 tons [4] Analysis and Suggestions - The resumption of production of ferroalloy enterprises is accelerating, and the supply is increasing, which puts pressure on the prices of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon. The approaching military parade on September 3rd has led to production restrictions in steel mills, affecting the short - term demand for ferroalloys in steel - making. The increasing hedging demand of enterprises may suppress the futures market, and the short - term outlook is bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a short - term bearish view on the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures [5] Report's Core View - The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased while demand has decreased, which may suppress the futures prices of the two products in the short term [4][5] Summary by Related Content Disk Situation - The SM2601 contract closed at 5914 today, down 206 points or 3.37% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 18.59%. The SF2601 contract closed at 5652, down 214 points or 3.65% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 21.39% [4] Influencing Factors - Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40% [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 29,580 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the daily average output was 16,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.43% or 535 tons [4] Analysis and Suggestions - The start - up of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises increased significantly last week. According to the spot cost, manufacturers' profitability is good, and previously shut - down enterprises are actively resuming production. The supply is on an accelerating upward trend, which suppresses the prices of the two products. On the other hand, due to the approaching September 3rd parade, steel mills have received production restriction notices, which will affect the daily output of hot metal by about 100,000 tons. The short - term demand for the two products in steelmaking is affected. In the futures market, the increasing hedging demand of enterprises may suppress the futures prices [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rubber market is facing challenges due to cost pressures, weak demand, and intense price competition among manufacturers [2] - Thailand's meteorological department has warned of potential heavy rainfall and flooding from July 20-22, which could impact rubber production [2] - Upcoming policy changes in Malaysia, including mandatory pension contributions for foreign workers and expanded latex import sales tax, are expected to further increase production costs [2] Group 2 - According to recent data, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports for the first half of 2025 reached 751,672 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared to 672,585 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - Cambodia's latex exports for the first half of 2025 decreased by 20% to 112,595 tons, down from 140,653 tons in the same period last year [2] - Domestic rubber production in China is being disrupted by rainfall, limiting the pace of raw material output, while Southeast Asia's new rubber release remains slow [3] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a potential rebound in rubber prices, although the fundamental logic suggests prices may fluctuate downwards [3] - Downstream product demand is currently in a low season, with new orders falling short of last year's levels, resulting in high finished product inventories that pressure some companies' operations [3] - Technical analysis suggests that rubber prices are likely to maintain a strong fluctuation trend in the near term, with recommendations for a bullish trading strategy [3]