这种现象并非孤立，而是国际制裁环境下买家应对机制的体现。 全球石油贸易受制裁影响，委内瑞拉出口面临多重障碍。 美国海军在加勒比海的部署加剧了物流难度，导致油轮通行受限。 美国对委内瑞拉石油资源的干预由来已久，这种行为在国际能源市场上引发广泛讨论。 特朗普政府时期，通过制裁措施限制委内瑞拉石油出口，旨在削弱马杜罗政府的经济基础。 2025年后，美国继续推动相关政策，涉及石油资产的控制和销售尝试。 委内瑞拉作为全球石油储量大国，其重油资源对某些国家基础设施建设有特定价值，但地缘政治因素常常干扰正常贸易。 特朗普的策略包括公开邀请潜在买家购买扣押的石油资源，却面临市场现实的阻力。 中国作为大型石油进口国，在采购决策中强调风险评估和多元化供应，这反映出全球能源贸易的复杂性。 石油市场供应格局在2025年发生变化，沙特、俄罗斯和伊朗等国占据中国进口前三位，委内瑞拉份额逐步下降。 美国试图通过控制特定石油库存影响全球价格，但买家行为更趋理性。 特朗普宣布掌控大量委内瑞拉原油后，预期能快速变现，却忽略了运输和制裁带来的额外成本。 报价调整虽微小，但足以改变交易吸引力。中国买家基于经济考量回避此类报价，体现了能源采购的战略调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. oil blockade against Venezuela has unexpectedly triggered a chain reaction in global energy trade, leading Chinese refineries to turn to Canadian heavy oil, marking a significant shift in North American energy dynamics and positioning Canada as a new player in the Asian market [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Actions - The U.S. implemented a maritime blockade against Venezuela, cutting off approximately 500,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to Chinese refineries [3] - This heavy crude oil, characterized by high viscosity and sulfur content, is particularly suitable for producing asphalt and occupies a unique position in the production formulas of independent Chinese refineries [3] Group 2: Response from Chinese Refineries - Chinese independent refineries, referred to as "teapot" refineries, quickly activated emergency measures, assessing Canadian heavy oil as a substitute [5] - Alberta's oil sands crude is highly similar to Venezuelan Merey crude in viscosity and sulfur content, allowing for immediate use in existing production lines without major equipment modifications [5] Group 3: Logistics and Supply Chain Adjustments - The current buffer period is crucial, with approximately 22 million barrels of Venezuelan crude floating in Asian waters, sufficient to meet Chinese refinery needs for about 75 days [7] - The volume of crude oil shipped from Vancouver to China surged to 7.3 million barrels in March 2025, with expectations for continued increases in April [7] Group 4: Canadian Energy Strategy - Canada is pursuing a trade diversification strategy, aiming to double exports to non-U.S. markets within ten years, with China as a key target [10] - By June 2024, China is expected to become the largest buyer of crude oil from the Trans Mountain pipeline, with an average daily import of 207,000 barrels, surpassing shipments to the U.S. [10] Group 5: Geopolitical Context - The geopolitical landscape is accelerating the shift in energy flows, with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announcing indefinite control over Venezuelan oil sales [9] - The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China marks the first by a Canadian leader in eight years, with energy cooperation as a core agenda item [9] Group 6: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite higher prices for Canadian crude, the reduced shipping time enhances cash flow and flexibility in tanker scheduling, partially offsetting the price disadvantage [13] - The logistics infrastructure in Vancouver has been upgraded, increasing the monthly unloading capacity significantly, reflecting the growing importance of the trade route to China [18]