华金期货品种报告 产业分类：新能源-双硅 分析师：马园园 执业资格证号： F3059193/Z0016074 华金期货有限公司 交易咨询 公楼 22 层 电话：400-995-5889 资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不 应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。 本报告版权仅为本公司所 明出处，且不得对本报告进行 任何有悖原意的引用、删节和 修改。 工业硅、多晶硅 2026 年策略报告 期货研究报告 双硅产能过剩，"政策"落地执行为关键变量 报告日期：2025.12.31 报告内容摘要： 工业硅： 2025 年工业硅价格经历了"下跌-反弹-震荡"行情，与其基本面 供需现况基本吻合。2026 年来看，供应端：新增产能投放&淘汰落后 产能叠加下，产能仍然过剩，供应较大程度取决于企业根据需求与利 润的动态调整，预计小增；需求端：多晶硅、有机硅在 2025 年"低 基数"基础上有所增加，而铝合金维持平稳增长。主流价格区间预计 在 7600 元/吨-9400 元/吨，价格重心或较当前有所下移。 经营范围：商品期货经纪、金 融期货经纪、资产管理、期货 地址：天津市和平区五大道街 南京路 183 号世纪都会商厦办 重点关注：成本端重点关 ...

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern. The market is influenced by emotions, and the main 01 contract should be treated with a high - level oscillation mindset, with a key support at 51,200 [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Net Short - Position Dragon and Tiger List - Top 10 futures companies in net short positions include Yong'an Futures (net short volume: 4,620, increase: 1,726), Minshang Futures (net short volume: 2,974, increase: 247), etc [3] Market Trends - On November 12, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and Jinko Solar issued statements to refute rumors. The average transaction price of polysilicon remained flat this week, and the spot price is likely to oscillate between 48,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. The inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides [3] Market Sentiment - After the industry association refuted rumors, the market sentiment was repaired. The polysilicon market showed a V - shaped rebound. The demand side provides support, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictory changes [4] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon has a chance to reverse under the support of cost and reduced supply. The main 01 contract should adopt a low - buying strategy, with a key support at 8,950 [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Net Short - Position Dragon and Tiger List - Top 10 futures companies in net short positions include Guotai Junan Futures (net short volume: 18,072, increase: 4,156), Ban Yu Jing Tan (net short volume: 16,232, increase: 373), etc [7] Market Trends - In November, the supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The "anti - involution" policy and energy - consumption new rules are conducive to the price increase of industrial silicon, but the decline in downstream demand may restrict the increase range. The market is waiting for the progress of industry conferences [7] Market Sentiment - The price of industrial silicon is under the pressure of high inventory and supported by cost. If the policy can continue to exert force, the price is expected to rise [8] Group 3: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the adjustment, iron ore still has the will to rise. The main 01 contract should be treated with a long - position mindset after stabilizing, with a key support at 760 [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - On November 11, the trading volume of iron ore decreased. The iron - water output increased slightly. The Simandou iron ore project was put into production, which may affect the global iron - ore market. Some regions launched heavy - pollution weather emergency responses. Traditional off - season steel - mill production cuts may relieve inventory pressure [11][12] Market Sentiment - The main 01 contract of iron ore has stabilized at a low level after repeatedly verifying the key support of 760. The supply - demand pattern is expected to return to a tight balance, and the price has the potential to rise [12]