Core Points - The article discusses Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on products imported from 14 countries starting August 1, 2025, with Southeast Asia being significantly affected [1][3] - The tariffs aim to encourage companies to relocate production to the U.S., thereby disrupting China's supply chain in Southeast Asia [1][6] - Countries like Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, and Indonesia face particularly high tariffs, with rates exceeding 35% for some [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Southeast Asia - Southeast Asian countries are major recipients of Chinese industrial transfers, with industries such as semiconductor packaging in Malaysia and automotive parts in Thailand being highlighted [1][3] - The tariffs are seen as a strategy to force these countries to shift production to the U.S., which could lead to factory closures and supply chain disruptions if they do not comply [1][6] - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on Chinese imports, making it vulnerable to the proposed tariffs, which could severely impact its manufacturing sector [6][9] Group 2: Reactions from Affected Countries - Countries like Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, and Indonesia are perceived to be resisting U.S. pressure to sacrifice their economic ties with China [6][9] - Malaysia and Thailand have initiated measures to limit U.S. technology imports, indicating a preference for maintaining ties with China over complying with U.S. demands [6][9] - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of using tariffs to isolate China may backfire, as Southeast Asian nations are increasingly moving towards "de-dollarization" and building independent supply chains [6][9] Group 3: U.S. Strategic Dilemma - The U.S. is hesitant to impose tariffs on China directly, indicating a strategic contradiction in its approach to trade [7][9] - The article highlights the complexity of Vietnam's position, as it seeks to balance relations between the U.S. and China while facing economic pressures from both sides [9] - The ongoing tariff conflict raises uncertainties about the future of international trade dynamics, as countries navigate their own interests amidst U.S. unilateral actions [9]

回望这场历时数月的关税博弈，我们之所以能够迫使美方重回谈判桌，背后正是自主产业链赋予的底 气。可以说产业链的深度与广度，就是一个国家抵御贸易战争的护城河。 因此当外部压力暂时缓解后，国产替代依然会是产业升级的主线，而增量机会将出现在那些国内产业 链已具备竞争力，但又尚未主导国内市场的领域。 顺着这条逻辑，风云君找到了一家比较契合的标的。 警惕中石化脱钩风险。 作者 | 萧瑟 编辑 | 小白 5月12日，随着联合声明的发布，全球两大经济体开始从剑拔弩张的关税战转向勾心斗角的规则博 弈。 ...