中金公司研报指出，短期来看，资产影响方面，对于欧元，一方面关税和地缘政治摩擦或将进一步削弱 欧洲的经济增长，利空欧元；而另一方面，近期美国政策端不确定性的上升或让美国作为投资目的地的 可靠性受到更多质疑，从而利空美元，此次贸易摩擦中市场交易的矛盾可能更集中于后者。从权益市场 角度看，从对美国销售敞口占比来看（尽管未必等同于对美出口最多），欧洲的 生物医药，媒体娱 乐， 食品饮料等可能面临一定压力。从绝对出口额来看，药品、交运设备、机械、化学品、飞机等对 美国的出口值较高。虽然在公司层面或可通过调整产业链、本地化生产等措施来应对，但仍给"全球欧 洲"的盈利修复带来不确定性。在这样的背景下，我们相对较为看好：（1）"自主独立"主题的偏内需行 业（如 银行、公用事业）；（2）外需敞口上，我们建议关注估值和盈利预期已经较为合理，政策逆风 相对较小的板块。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European equity market is experiencing strong performance due to significant internal policy changes, while the sustainability of the "American exceptionalism" is under scrutiny, prompting investors to seek opportunities outside the U.S. [2][7] Group 1: New Opportunities in Europe - The macro environment has improved, leading to better valuations and earnings in Europe, particularly in sectors that previously lagged, such as banking, utilities, telecommunications, energy, and materials [3][10]. - Policy shifts, especially from Germany, are addressing structural issues and boosting economic growth, with fiscal support directed towards domestic-oriented industries that have underperformed [3][21]. - Global regional allocation is becoming more valuable, with Europe's market size, economic scale, diverse income sources, and institutional stability presenting relative advantages [3][32]. Group 2: Missing Elements in Europe - Despite positive developments, the European equity market still lacks key factors for a robust "European exceptionalism," including limited economic growth potential and structural challenges [4][44]. - The fragmented financial market in Europe hampers equity market performance, and political fragmentation poses challenges to necessary reforms [4][57]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The new investment narrative in Europe is shifting towards policy-driven "self-reliance," focusing on military spending, technology independence, energy policies, and enhancing domestic demand [5][59]. - The need for financial market reforms and leveraging Europe's substantial savings base is critical for driving investment [5][60]. Group 4: Policy Changes in Europe - Germany's fiscal plan could reach €1 trillion over the next decade, significantly impacting public spending and economic growth [21][22]. - The EU's "Re-Arm Europe" initiative, totaling €800 billion, aims to bolster fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure, green transition, and digitalization [21][22]. - Regulatory changes and discussions around EU integration are gaining momentum, which could enhance investment attractiveness despite existing political challenges [26][27]. Group 5: European Market as a Potential Alternative - Regional diversification in investment is becoming increasingly important, with Europe presenting several advantages over other non-U.S. regions, including market size and economic scale [31][32]. - Europe's equity market comprises 12% of the MSCI ACWI index, making it one of the largest equity markets globally [31]. - The EU's stable institutional framework, despite slower decision-making, provides predictability and discipline in fiscal matters [32]. Group 6: Potential Funding Sources - European households currently allocate only 22% of their assets to equities, significantly lower than the U.S. at 41%, indicating potential for increased investment in the equity market [37][38]. - The asset management industry in Europe is well-developed, and recent macro changes could shift the investment landscape towards more favorable allocations in European equities [37][38].