Core Viewpoint - The market for Toyota Alphard is experiencing a significant shift, with price increases stabilizing and availability issues leading to reduced demand and competition from domestic brands [1][6][9]. Group 1: Pricing and Availability - A recent report indicates that the price for a specific configuration of the Toyota Alphard is now only 2.75 million yuan above the suggested retail price of 899,000 yuan, a stark contrast to previous price hikes of up to 300,000 yuan [1]. - Many dealers report a lack of stock for both new and old models of the Alphard, with some indicating that they cannot obtain vehicles from the manufacturer [3][4]. - The average price increase for the Alphard has stabilized around 100,000 yuan, down from previous levels, but dealers with available stock are still leveraging this scarcity to maintain higher prices [5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Competition - The Alphard, once a dominant player in the high-end MPV market, has seen a decline in sales, with 21,000 units sold in 2022, representing a year-on-year drop of over 12%, and 19,000 units in 2023 [6][8]. - The vehicle's popularity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is waning, with competitors like Zeekr 009 and Denza D9 taking the lead in the MPV market [8]. - The rise of domestic high-end MPVs and changing consumer preferences are challenging the Alphard's market position, as buyers now have more options under one million yuan without the need for additional markups [9]. Group 3: Import Market Dynamics - The import price of the Alphard in China is significantly higher than in Japan, where it is priced between 265,000 and 428,000 yuan, due to import taxes and limited supply [10]. - The overall import car market in China is facing a downturn, with a 32% year-on-year decline in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a shift in consumer demand towards domestic brands [11]. - The luxury segment is currently the only area sustaining the import market, while demand for non-luxury imported vehicles is rapidly shrinking [11].

Core Insights - The price of the Toyota Alphard has seen a significant reduction in the markup, with recent reports indicating a markup of only 27,500 yuan compared to previous markups of up to 300,000 yuan, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [1][2] - Despite the reduced markup, many dealers report a lack of available stock for the Alphard, indicating ongoing supply chain issues and limited allocations from the manufacturer [1][3] - The Alphard's market dominance is being challenged by the rise of domestic high-end MPVs, such as the Denza D9 and Zeekr 009, which are gaining popularity and market share [3][4] Pricing and Availability - Recent reports show that the current markup for the new Alphard is around 160,000 yuan, while the older model has a markup of approximately 100,000 yuan, leading to a total price exceeding 1,009,000 yuan for the 2.5L premium version [2] - Dealers across various regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, have confirmed that there are no available units of the Alphard, with some stating that they have exhausted their annual allocation from the manufacturer [1][3] Market Trends - The Alphard's sales have declined significantly, with 21,000 units sold in 2022, representing a year-on-year decrease of over 12%, and only 19,000 units sold in 2023 [3][4] - The vehicle's popularity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is also waning, with its market share dropping from over 70% in the Hong Kong MPV market to being overtaken by competitors [4] Import Market Dynamics - The import price of the Alphard in China is significantly higher than in Japan, where it is priced between 265,000 to 428,000 yuan, due to import taxes and limited supply [5] - The overall import car market in China has seen a decline, with a 32% drop in imported vehicles in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a challenging environment for foreign brands [6][7]