Core Viewpoint - The market for Toyota Alphard is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable decrease in price premiums and a lack of available inventory, indicating changing consumer preferences and increased competition from domestic brands [1][2][7]. Group 1: Pricing and Inventory Situation - Recent reports indicate that the price premium for the Toyota Alphard has decreased from around 30,000 yuan to approximately 10,000 yuan, reflecting a significant market adjustment [2][8]. - Many dealers across various regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, report a complete lack of inventory for both new and old models of the Alphard, leading to increased price premiums for those with available stock [4][8]. - A dealer in Hangzhou mentioned that the new model was sold with a 160,000 yuan markup, while the old model had a 100,000 yuan markup, indicating that even with reduced premiums, the final price remains high [4][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The Alphard, once a dominant player in the high-end MPV market, is facing declining sales, with 2022 sales dropping to 21,000 units, a year-on-year decline of over 12%, and 2023 sales projected at 19,000 units [8][10]. - The vehicle's popularity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is waning, with competitors like Zeekr 009 and Denza D9 capturing significant market share [10]. - The rise of domestic high-end MPVs and changing consumer preferences are challenging the Alphard's status as a luxury symbol, as buyers now have more options within the 1 million yuan price range [10][12]. Group 3: Import Market Trends - The overall import car market in China is experiencing a downturn, with a reported 32% year-on-year decline in imported vehicles from January to July 2025 [12][13]. - The demand for non-luxury imported vehicles is sharply decreasing, while luxury brands like Lexus and Porsche are performing relatively well [13]. - The long-term trend shows a continuous decline in the import car market, with projections indicating that the scale of imports will remain below demand in the near future [13].

Core Insights - The price of the Toyota Alphard has seen a significant reduction in the markup, with recent reports indicating a markup of only 27,500 yuan compared to previous markups of up to 300,000 yuan, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [1][2] - Despite the reduced markup, many dealers report a lack of available stock for the Alphard, indicating ongoing supply chain issues and limited allocations from the manufacturer [1][3] - The Alphard's market dominance is being challenged by the rise of domestic high-end MPVs, such as the Denza D9 and Zeekr 009, which are gaining popularity and market share [3][4] Pricing and Availability - Recent reports show that the current markup for the new Alphard is around 160,000 yuan, while the older model has a markup of approximately 100,000 yuan, leading to a total price exceeding 1,009,000 yuan for the 2.5L premium version [2] - Dealers across various regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, have confirmed that there are no available units of the Alphard, with some stating that they have exhausted their annual allocation from the manufacturer [1][3] Market Trends - The Alphard's sales have declined significantly, with 21,000 units sold in 2022, representing a year-on-year decrease of over 12%, and only 19,000 units sold in 2023 [3][4] - The vehicle's popularity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is also waning, with its market share dropping from over 70% in the Hong Kong MPV market to being overtaken by competitors [4] Import Market Dynamics - The import price of the Alphard in China is significantly higher than in Japan, where it is priced between 265,000 to 428,000 yuan, due to import taxes and limited supply [5] - The overall import car market in China has seen a decline, with a 32% drop in imported vehicles in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a challenging environment for foreign brands [6][7]