这一年来，印度经济面临的压力不小。 印度政府经济调查显示，2025-26财年印度GDP预计增长7.4%，较上一财年的6.5%有所提升。但受外部 不确定性影响，2026-27财年增速预计将放缓至6.8%-7.2%区间。 【文/观察者网 柳白】 在全球贸易摩擦升温、美国对印度商品加征高额关税的背景下，印度政府抛出了新一财年预算案，而基 建占据了这份预算的核心位置。 当地时间2月1日，印度财政部长西塔拉曼提交了从4月开始的新一财年预算，将基础设施资本开支提高 9%至12.2万亿卢比（约合9249亿元人民币），创下历史新高，并同步加码半导体、稀土、数据中心等 战略产业投入。 不过，市场反应并不完全买账。由于预算案缺乏雄心勃勃的改革计划，以及政府宣布将提高衍生品交易 税，导致印度股市在当天预算提案公布的特别交易日中下跌近2%，创下六年来预算案公布日的最差表 现。 "印度想减少对华稀土依赖" 《日经新闻》指出，美国去年8月对印度商品加征50%关税，并对印度购买俄罗斯石油额外征收25%惩 罚性关税，是导致印度经济增速承压的重要因素。英国广播公司（BBC）预测，若美国关税政策长期延 续，将对印度出口贸易造成更大冲击。 202 ...

Group 1 - The core event is India's first participation of an "animal squad" in the 2026 Republic Day parade, featuring double-humped camels, ponies, raptors, and indigenous military dogs [1][3] - The double-humped camels will lead the animal squad, reflecting India's initiative for self-reliance and the "Make in India" program by increasingly incorporating local dog breeds [3] - Historically, the Republic Day parade has showcased India's military strength, but this is the first time an "animal squad" will be included [3] Group 2 - The Republic Day is celebrated on January 26, marking the day in 1950 when the Indian Parliament adopted the Constitution [3] - There are concerns among Indian netizens regarding the addition of the animal squad, drawing parallels to previous motorcycle stunt performances that were deemed unhelpful and potentially encouraging illegal behavior among youth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Indian exporters due to the 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S. and the potential risks associated with relying on China as an alternative market for exports [1][4]. Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The bilateral trade between India and China is projected to reach $127 billion by the fiscal year 2024-25, with India maintaining a trade deficit of $100 billion [1]. - Indian exports primarily consist of low-value goods, while China dominates the market with high-value capital goods such as electronics and telecom equipment [1]. - The over-reliance on Chinese products in sensitive sectors like telecommunications and solar energy poses significant economic and national security risks [1][4]. Strategic Recommendations - Experts suggest a multi-faceted approach for India, including diversifying trade partnerships with countries like Vietnam, ASEAN nations, Japan, South Korea, and Latin America [3]. - There is a call for accelerating domestic manufacturing upgrades and enhancing technological cooperation with Quad members and the EU to reduce dependence on Chinese high-tech products [3][6]. - The "strategic triangle" model proposed by experts emphasizes maintaining technology cooperation with China in advanced sectors while strengthening local manufacturing capabilities through incentive programs [4]. Economic Transformation and Multilateral Cooperation - India's economy has transitioned to a service-oriented model, currently holding $690 billion in foreign exchange reserves, despite the trade deficit with China [5]. - The country is leveraging BRICS and other multilateral frameworks to establish a diversified cooperation network, creating new market opportunities amid resistance to U.S. goods from some countries [5][6]. Balancing Strategy - India is advised to implement a cautious balancing strategy, avoiding excessive dependence on any single country while enhancing domestic manufacturing competitiveness [6]. - The need for a strategic approach to cooperation with China within a broader global partnership framework is emphasized, ensuring that trade interests align with national security considerations [6].

Core Points - The U.S. Trade Representative's office unexpectedly canceled a planned visit to New Delhi, coinciding with the imposition of a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, marking the highest tariffs imposed by the U.S. on a major trading partner [1][15] - The cancellation of the visit dashed India's hopes for last-minute negotiations to alleviate tariff pressures, especially as the U.S. had recently reached a temporary agreement with China [1][3] - Tensions between the U.S. and India have escalated due to unresolved trade negotiations, particularly in agriculture, dairy, and energy sectors, with the U.S. demanding greater market access and a halt to Russian oil imports [3][5] Trade Relations - India's government faces significant challenges in complying with U.S. demands, as nearly 60% of its population relies on agriculture, and energy security is a critical concern due to high dependence on oil imports [5][9] - The Modi administration has initiated a "self-reliant India" strategy, which includes plans for domestic semiconductor production and tax reforms, aiming to bolster its industrial base amid trade tensions [7][11] - Despite these efforts, bureaucratic delays and project setbacks have hindered foreign investment, with an average delay of 18 months for foreign projects [7][9] Economic Impact - The Indian government has developed a three-phase response plan to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, focusing on export tax rebates for heavily affected sectors, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, and potential WTO litigation [9][13] - However, these measures are expected to only alleviate approximately $725 million in losses, which is minimal compared to India's nearly $100 billion annual exports to the U.S. [9][11] - Concurrently, China has increased its engagement with India, highlighting the growing economic interdependence between the two nations, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $136 billion by mid-2025 [11][15] Strategic Considerations - The evolving trade dynamics reveal a shift in India's foreign policy, as it seeks to balance its strategic autonomy while navigating pressures from both the U.S. and China [13][15] - Modi's government is attempting to diversify its energy sources and enhance domestic production capabilities, while also engaging in multilateral discussions to strengthen its position [13][15] - The upcoming UN General Assembly presents a potential opportunity for U.S.-India dialogue, although India remains firm on not initiating discussions unless the U.S. retracts some tariffs [13][15]