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新能源及有色金属日报:受消息端扰动,工业硅盘面大幅反弹-20250715
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 05:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market was positively affected by news disturbances. Factors such as the possible cancellation of preferential electricity prices and rumors of delayed resumption of production by large factories led to a significant rebound in the industrial silicon futures market. Short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see, with previous short positions needing protection [1][3]. - There have been many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry recently, including anti - involution, storage mergers and acquisitions, and self - disciplined production cuts. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions in polysilicon at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8460 yuan/ton and closed at 8695 yuan/ton, a change of 275 yuan/ton (3.27%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 402,890 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 13 was 50,090 lots, a change of - 139 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton); 421 silicon was 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8500 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); 99 silicon was 8300 - 8400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [2]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). Due to the continuous rise of the industrial silicon market, the cost of DMC was pushed up, and its price jumped by about 350 yuan/ton, which in turn drove up the price of 107 glue [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions need to be protected [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 41,290 yuan/ton and closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, a change of 0.81% from the previous day's closing price. The position of the main contract was 78,328 lots (previous day: 85,925 lots), and the trading volume on the day was 470,329 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; N - type material was 42.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg (down 0.50 yuan/kg); N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 276,000 tons, a change of 1.40% from the previous period; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW, a change of - 5.70% from the previous period. The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons, a change of - 5.00% from the previous period; the silicon wafer output was 11.50GW, a change of - 3.37% from the previous period [5][6]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor changes in a few varieties [6]. - After domestic photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises generally raised their quotes on the afternoon of July 9, the domestic silicon wafer market has fully carried out transactions at the new prices. Battery factories have started to purchase in large quantities. Currently, silicon material transactions have not fully started, with only a few P - type orders [7]. - **Strategy** - Short - term: pay attention to risks and be cautiously bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions at low prices [8].
新能源及有色金属日报:政策及情绪影响继续发酵,多晶硅盘面触及涨停-20250709
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short - term neutral, upstream is recommended to sell hedging at high prices [3] - Polysilicon: Long - term suitable for low - level layout of long positions, short - term neutral [6][8] 2. Report's Core View - The influence of policies and emotions on the new energy and non - ferrous metals industry continues to ferment, with the polysilicon futures hitting the daily limit [1] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are short - term improved slightly, but the overall situation is still weak, and its futures price increase is affected by polysilicon [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise significantly due to policy disturbances, and mid - to long - term investment opportunities exist [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2509 opened at 8060 yuan/ton and closed at 8215 yuan/ton, up 2.82% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 387122 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51077 lots, down 272 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton [2] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic silicone DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. It is estimated that the silicone production in July will increase by 1.53% month - on - month [2] Strategy - The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the industry inventory is high, and there is hedging pressure after the rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If there is no policy promotion, upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 36505 yuan/ton and closing at 38385 yuan/ton, up 7.00% from the previous day. The position was 110547 lots, and the trading volume was 634366 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, except for the increase in N - type materials. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The weekly polysilicon production was 24000.00 tons, up 1.69% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW, down 11.46% week - on - week [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5] Strategy - Recently, affected by policies and capital emotions, the prices of futures and spot have risen sharply. The market expects the polysilicon price to be above 39 - 40 yuan/kg. In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low levels [6]
光伏周价格 | 3月产业链排产回升,组件价格呈V型反弹
TrendForce集邦· 2025-03-06 07:31
Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of the current pricing trends and dynamics within the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting stability in prices across various segments and potential upward movements in the future due to supply-demand dynamics [4][24]. Silicon Material Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type recycled silicon are at 40 RMB/KG, N-type dense silicon at 38 RMB/KG, and N-type granular silicon also at 38 RMB/KG [6]. - The overall transaction volume remains low as companies are in the negotiation phase, with some manufacturers considering price increases, but downstream acceptance is low [7]. - Current silicon material inventory levels have decreased to the range of 250,000 to 260,000 tons, driven by factors such as futures registration and increased downstream demand [8]. - Under the consensus of self-discipline in production cuts, silicon material companies are maintaining low operational levels compared to the same period last year, leading to expectations of stable prices [10]. - Prices have stabilized this week, with a potential for gradual increases in the future, although the impact of futures on prices remains a consideration [11]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for P-type M10 wafers are at 1.10 RMB/piece, P-type G12 at 1.65 RMB/piece, N-type M10 at 1.18 RMB/piece, and N-type G12 at 1.55 RMB/piece [13]. - In March, wafer production has slightly increased to the range of 50-51 GW, with leading manufacturers remaining cautious in their production strategies due to self-discipline production cuts [14]. - The demand for 210RN wafers has increased, leading to price support, while other models remain stable [15]. Battery Cell Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for M10 battery cells are at 0.330 RMB/W, G12 at 0.270 RMB/W, and both M10 and G12 single crystal TOPCon cells at 0.290 RMB/W [17]. - Battery cell production in March has increased by approximately 22% month-on-month, driven by a small peak in installations expected in Q2, with total production in the range of 54-55 GW [18]. - The price of 210RN cells has increased due to tight supply conditions [19]. Module Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for 182mm single-sided PERC modules are at 0.69 RMB/W, 210mm single-sided PERC modules at 0.70 RMB/W, and 182mm double-sided double-glass PERC modules at 0.70 RMB/W [21]. - In March, module production is expected to increase due to favorable factors such as the "New 531" policy and the traditional overseas peak season, with domestic demand in the ground and distributed segments beginning to develop [22]. - Module prices have remained stable, with an increasing number of manufacturers reporting price hikes, indicating a potential shift towards a buy-up atmosphere in the module segment [23].