Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd. by Tongwei Co., Ltd. is a significant move in the silicon material industry, aimed at optimizing the photovoltaic sector and addressing internal competition issues [2][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Tongwei plans to acquire 100% of Lihua Qingneng through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, with the stock expected to be suspended for up to 10 trading days starting February 25, 2026 [2]. - The acquisition will increase Tongwei's silicon material production capacity to over 1 million tons annually, combining its existing capacity of over 900,000 tons with Lihua Qingneng's planned capacity of 200,000 tons [3][6]. Group 2: Company Background - Lihua Qingneng specializes in the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic-grade high-purity crystalline silicon and electronic-grade polysilicon, with a total planned investment of 20 billion yuan for its production projects [3]. - The company is located in the Xining Economic and Technological Development Zone and has significant production projects planned, including a 200,000-ton photovoltaic-grade high-purity crystalline silicon project [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The merger is seen as a strategic move to combat the "involution" within the photovoltaic industry, enhancing Tongwei's leading position in the polysilicon sector during a current industry downturn [6]. - The integration is expected to facilitate management synergy and cultural alignment between the two companies, reducing acquisition risks and enhancing operational efficiency [5][6]. - The acquisition aligns with national policies encouraging industry consolidation, which is viewed positively by market participants [5].

联络人 作者 企业评级部 汤梦琳 010-66428877 mltang@ccxi.com.cn 李洁鹭 010-66428877 jlli@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 核心观点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 12 | | 结论 | 19 | | 附表 | 20 | 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国光伏制造行业 中国光伏制造行业展望，2026 年 2 月 展望 2026 年，国内光伏装机需求将出现小幅回落，海外出口增速也将 趋于下行，预计下游需求增速整体放缓；供给端，在法律政策与自律 协会的推动下，企业将继续减产控价，产业链价格或将出现不同程度 的回升，随着落后产能淘汰，行业集中度将进一步提升。不过短期内 行业供需失衡的格局仍难以得到根本性扭转，产业链价格仍将处于低 位。长期来看产业发展环境有望得到优化，但盈利修复仍需依赖减产 联盟共识、供给侧政策持续发力与需求端的带动，而持续亏损导致 ...

我国光伏产业正在着力破解"成长的烦恼"。 近期举办的"2025光伏行业年度大会"，聚焦"内卷式"竞争共谋破局之策，发布"光伏标准应用实施及供应链质量生态共建 倡议"，释放出以制度建设、规则统一与行为规范破解行业痛点的强烈信号。 作为"中国制造"的亮丽名片，我国光伏产业在规模、技术、应用等领域长期领跑全球。截至2025年11月底，全国太阳能发 电装机容量达11.6亿千瓦，同比增长41.9%。这份成绩单背后，是我国光伏人多年的深耕与突破。也要看到，高速扩张的 同时，阶段性供需失衡、低价无序竞争等问题逐渐凸显，行业一度陷入"价格战"的困境，传递出光伏产业转型升级的迫切 需求。 整治光伏行业"内卷"是培育新质生产力、巩固全球竞争优势的关键抓手。"内卷"的病根，在于发展逻辑的错位——从拼技 术、拼创新滑向了拼价格、拼规模。要拔除这个"病根"，关键在于扭转发展逻辑，根据产业链不同环节特点实施差异化政 策，走出一条供需协同、精准施策的路子。 供给端，要突出分类施策的智慧。对于迭代迅速的电池环节，当以转换效率为核心建立技术分级机制，为先进产能开辟绿 色通道。对于硅料、硅片等成熟环节，需以能耗和环保为标尺，坚决清退落后产能。对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to impact the industry significantly, particularly affecting the cost structure and competitive pricing of companies in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the photovoltaic ETF (159857) saw a turnover of 9.74% with a transaction volume of 217 million yuan, while the tracked CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) surged nearly 3%, marking a six-day winning streak [1]. - Key component stocks such as Dongfang Risheng, Jiejia Weichuang, and Maiwei Co. experienced notable increases of 17.26%, 13.15%, and 11.36% respectively, with other companies like Trina Solar and Aotwei also showing upward trends [1]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products effective April 1, 2026, and a reduction of the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, with a complete cancellation starting January 1, 2027 [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to increase direct costs for companies and reduce their price competitiveness, leading to a potential renegotiation of export prices by Chinese firms [3]. - Analysts predict that the removal of the rebate will accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the domestic market, allowing leading and technologically advanced companies to gain market share [3]. - Zhongyin Securities noted that ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the photovoltaic industry are likely to stabilize upstream prices and enhance profit recovery expectations, particularly benefiting the silicon material segment [3].

Core Insights - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is addressing its "growing pains" through initiatives aimed at breaking the cycle of "involution" competition and promoting a collaborative ecosystem for supply chain quality [1] - As of November 2025, China's solar power generation capacity is expected to reach 1.16 billion kilowatts, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.9%, showcasing the industry's global leadership in scale, technology, and application [1] - The industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and price wars, highlighting the urgent need for transformation and upgrading [1] Supply-Side Strategies - Emphasizing differentiated policies based on the characteristics of various segments, such as establishing a technology grading mechanism for rapidly evolving battery technologies and enforcing strict regulations to eliminate outdated capacities in mature segments like silicon materials and wafers [2] - The component sector requires strict regulation to curb sales below cost, ensuring that high-quality production is prioritized while phasing out inferior capacities [2] Demand-Side Strategies - The domestic market should see state-owned enterprises take responsibility for major projects, stabilizing the development foundation and pushing for technology upgrades through stringent requirements for component efficiency [2] - Optimizing bidding rules to reduce the emphasis on price and promote a "quality over price" approach is essential for fostering a healthier market environment [2] - In international markets, measures such as differentiated tax rebates should be implemented to prevent the export of low-quality products, while encouraging companies to explore emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America [2] Policy Support - Recent guidelines from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim to create a collaborative framework that integrates source, network, and load, driven by market and innovation [3] - A comprehensive action is underway to transition from low-level "involution" to high-quality development, reinforcing China's competitive advantages in the global energy transition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the competitive challenges in the global photovoltaic (PV) industry, particularly the phenomenon of "involution," characterized by price wars and homogenized products. Wuxi Jiangsong Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jiangsong Technology"), currently in the IPO stage, exemplifies a "counter-involution" trend through its innovative and differentiated approach in the PV battery automation equipment sector [1]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - The essence of the PV industry's involution is the homogenization of technology, leading to price wars as the primary competitive strategy. Jiangsong Technology focuses on technological innovation to break this deadlock by developing advanced automation equipment for PV battery production [2]. - The company has successfully developed automation equipment for various processes in PV battery manufacturing, including diffusion annealing, PECVD, etching, texturing, and alkali etching, making it one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of providing comprehensive production solutions [2]. - Jiangsong Technology's automation equipment features high operational efficiency, precision, low breakage rates, and customization capabilities, enabling smart production and data collection for clients' digital factories [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Jiangsong Technology's diffusion annealing automation equipment achieves a capacity of 13,500 wafers per hour with a breakage rate as low as 0.01%, outperforming both domestic and international competitors [3]. - The company's PECVD automation equipment has increased production capacity from 4,500-6,000 wafers per hour to 8,500 wafers per hour, significantly aiding in cost reduction and efficiency improvement in PV battery production [3]. - Jiangsong Technology ranks first among PV battery automation equipment manufacturers according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's 2022-2023 annual report, with a compound annual growth rate of 58.15% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong market recognition [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - Equipment manufacturers play a crucial role in the PV industry's value chain, influencing production efficiency, quality, and costs. Jiangsong Technology's focus on N-type battery technology positions it well to meet new market demands and facilitate the transition to advanced technologies [4]. - The global PV industry continues to grow, with 2023 witnessing a record 390 GW of new installations, including 216.88 GW in China. This growth is expected to drive demand for equipment manufacturers like Jiangsong Technology [5]. - Jiangsong Technology's IPO funding aims to expand production capacity, enhance product offerings, and strengthen R&D capabilities, reflecting a strategic shift in the Chinese PV industry towards high-end equipment and innovative technologies [5].

Core Viewpoint - Since July, multiple departments have implemented policies to guide the photovoltaic industry towards a high-quality development phase focused on technological innovation, with initial signs of success in stabilizing and increasing prices in core segments like silicon materials [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Response - The policies are aimed at controlling production capacity, prices, and improving standards within the photovoltaic sector [1] - Industry associations and enterprises are collaborating to advance these policies, indicating a coordinated effort to enhance the industry's overall quality [1] Group 2: Price Trends - Prices for core materials, particularly polysilicon, have shown a significant recovery, with the main contract for polysilicon doubling since the end of June [1] - As of December 26, the price of various models of monocrystalline silicon wafers ranged from 1.2 yuan to 1.52 yuan per piece, reflecting an increase of at least 40% compared to the price range of 0.86 yuan to 1.19 yuan per piece at the beginning of the third quarter [1] - The average price of N-type polysilicon rebounded to 53,900 yuan per ton, marking an increase of approximately 54% from the end of the second quarter [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the solar photovoltaic (PV) sector, with the IEA predicting a 50% average annual growth in electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa from 2023 to 2035, with solar PV expected to grow the fastest, increasing 15 times by 2035 compared to 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The solar ETF Huaxia (515370) experienced a rapid increase of 1.67% in the afternoon of December 24, with a capital inflow of 100 million yuan yesterday and over 1 billion yuan net inflow in the past twenty days [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - According to Guojin Securities, since July, there has been a significant release of "anti-involution" signals in the solar industry, with continuous improvement in policy specifications [1] - The price control aspect indicates that the price of polysilicon is gradually covering costs, and it is expected that the price center of the industry chain will progressively cover costs [1] - On the supply side, the advancement of storage dynamics and new energy consumption standards for polysilicon are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to ongoing "anti-involution" efforts that will drive industry profit recovery [1] Group 3: ETF Overview - The solar ETF Huaxia (515370) tracks the CSI Solar Industry Index, which includes upstream, midstream, and downstream companies in the solar industry, such as silicon wafers, polysilicon, battery cells, cables, photovoltaic glass, battery modules, inverters, photovoltaic brackets, and solar power plants, providing a comprehensive reflection of the overall performance of the solar industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. is seen as a significant step towards addressing the "involution" issue in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to optimize competition and stabilize pricing mechanisms [1][5][7]. Company Overview - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [1]. - The company is located at Room B6221, 6th Floor, Building 36, Huagong East Lane 3, Chaoyang District, Beijing, but has not yet commenced operations [2]. - The legal representative of Guanghe Qiancheng is Hou Yicong, and its business scope includes technology services, development, consulting, and management [1]. Shareholder Composition - Guanghe Qiancheng has 10 shareholders, with 9 being silicon material production companies [3]. - Major shareholders include Tongwei Co., Ltd. (30.35% stake), GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (16.79%), Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co., Ltd. (11.31%), and Xinte Energy Co., Ltd. (10.12%) [3][4]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry has been facing challenges due to unfair competition practices, prompting regulatory bodies to take action to restore order and promote high-quality development [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated energy-saving inspections for 41 silicon material companies to eliminate high-energy-consuming outdated capacities [6]. - The price of polysilicon, a core raw material for photovoltaic cells, has shown significant fluctuations, with the price of N-type polysilicon rising from 37 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 53 yuan/kg currently, marking an increase of approximately 43% [6]. Market Implications - The establishment of Guanghe Qiancheng is expected to enhance the competitive landscape of the industry, concentrating market share among leading firms and stabilizing prices to ensure profitability [7]. - The market's positive reaction to Guanghe Qiancheng's registration reflects a strong demand for addressing the "involution" issue within the photovoltaic sector [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the determination of policies in the photovoltaic industry, indicating that the industry will not cease its efforts until it overcomes vicious competition [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) rose by 2.84%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Shangneng Electric (300827) up by 20.00%, Lianhong Xinke (003022) up by 10.00%, and Jinlang Technology (300763) up by 8.17% [1] - The Photovoltaic ETF Fund (516180) increased by 2.34%, closing at 0.88 yuan, and has seen a cumulative rise of 2.89% over the past two weeks, ranking 2nd out of 11 comparable funds [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index include Yangguang Electric (300274), Longi Green Energy (601012), and TBEA (600089), collectively accounting for 60.74% of the index [2] - The weight and performance of the top stocks are as follows: Yangguang Electric (17.58%, up 2.47%), Longi Green Energy (8.38%, up 3.42%), and TBEA (7.31%, up 3.40%) [4]