自由现金流贴现

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段永平最新这样看茅台
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 09:22
今天的文章,我们继续分享段永平的言论。 最近几天,段永平在雪球平台(ID:大道无形我有型)格外活跃,多次与网友围绕茅台话题展开探讨。交流中,他不仅分享了对茅台的观点,更 是结合了现金流折现,分享了其对于茅台估值思路。干货很多,值得思考。 我们认为大道言简意赅的言论,对于生意本质的把握还是很清晰到位的。所以,今天的文章我们就再来和大家分享一些大道的最新感悟。 以下为主要内容: 事情的起因是有网友问段永平,有关未来现金流折现的问题。 网友1:一家公司今天的价值,等于它在未来整个生命周期里所能产生的所有自由现金流的现值总和。 (他认为)这句话有两个核心关键词: 1. 自由现金流:这是公司真正能赚到手的、可以自由支配的"真金白银",而不是会计上的利润。简单理解就是:公司每年赚的钱里,扣除掉维持 生意运转必须再投入的钱之后,剩余的部分。这部分钱可以用来分红、回购股票或再投资。 2. 折现:未来的钱不如现在的钱值钱。因为你有机会成本(比如把钱存银行也有利息),而且未来有不确定性(风险)。因此,必须把未来的 钱"打折"成现在的价值。 随后并依托他的思路,给出了推理的计算过程(此处略),并询问大道对此的看法。 对此,大道的回 ...
聚焦创新药投资 优化组合风险收益比
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-27 21:07
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the unique perspective of Zheng Ning, a fund manager at Zhongyin Fund, on value investing in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, highlighting his focus on constructing a high-risk-reward investment portfolio based on implied return rates under neutral free cash flow assumptions [1][2]. Investment Philosophy - Zheng believes that the essence of stock investment lies in the discounting of future free cash flows, advocating for a long-term view when assessing assets [2]. - He has shifted from seeking certainty in investments to pricing uncertainty, focusing on the implied cash flow probability distribution [2]. - The core of his pricing strategy is based on implied return rates under neutral free cash flow assumptions, where assets with low implied return rates may not warrant allocation, while those with favorable pricing could present high-odds opportunities [2]. Investment Strategy - Zheng employs a systematic approach to portfolio construction, which includes assessing stock positions based on fundamental, valuation, liquidity, and policy factors [3]. - He adjusts stock positions based on market conditions, reducing exposure in strong markets and increasing it in weak markets [3]. - The strategy also involves sector allocation and stock selection, prioritizing industries with improving fundamentals and favorable valuations [3]. Market Outlook - Zheng is optimistic about the ongoing opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, attributing the recent uptrend to fundamental drivers such as overseas business development, profit realization, and research advancements [4]. - He notes that even after recent price increases, some leading Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceutical companies remain undervalued with attractive implied return rates [4]. - The article suggests that the best time to invest in Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals may be in the coming years, particularly in traditional pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovative drug development [5]. Performance and Future Considerations - Since taking over public fund products, Zheng has experienced both successes and setbacks, with a notable focus on innovative pharmaceutical stocks [3][5]. - The article indicates that the next challenge for Zheng's portfolio will be to time the exit from innovative pharmaceutical stocks effectively, similar to his previous successful entry strategy [5]. - Zheng estimates that fundamental-driven market trends in this sector may last for two to three years, with significant growth potential remaining for leading innovative pharmaceutical companies [5].