超过5300架的飞机交付缺口、17000架的积压订单，停航飞机数量连续创下历史高位……2025年岁末， 全球航空产业需求反弹，却被供需矛盾拖入一场漫长博弈。 国际航协理事长威利·沃尔什日前接受记者采访时发出警示：一场波及全产业链的白热化较量已然到 来。航空供应链瓶颈全面冲击行业，若不加快破局，航空公司的营收增长、绿色转型与旅客出行成本都 将持续承压。 作为飞机的"心脏"，发动机的扰动因素频发，技术故障、产能爬坡缓慢以及地缘政治衍生风险相互交 织，大量新机身"等心装配"正成为产业链常态。失衡的天平正引发一系列连锁反应，航空公司调度灵活 性受限，机队平均机龄拉长，在推高维修成本的同时，也拖累了行业绿色转型步伐。而运力紧张与运营 成本飙升的代价，也正向终端旅客一侧蔓延。 多数受访者认为，解锁困局是一场长期战役。如何构建韧性供应链体系，对于航空产业来说迫在眉睫。 随着国产大飞机实力提升及航空动力突破，中国能否成为全球航空变局中的新变量，成为市场关切。 停航飞机维持"高水位" 全球"停航"飞机数量连续在超5000架的历史高位徘徊，这是记者从国际航协得到的最新数据。 这种"高水位"，从近期多国航空公司及产业链公司动作中也 ...

新华财经上海12月10日电（记者王鹤）国际航空运输协会（IATA）近日发布报告称，新飞机交付量在 2025年底开始回升，预计2026年生产将加速，但需求将超过飞机和发动机的可用率。由于过去五年交付 的不可逆损失和创新高的积压订单，航空公司需求和生产产能之间的结构性矛盾在2031年-2034年之前 难以解决。 国际航协称，目前，交付缺口总计超过5300架飞机。积压飞机订单已超过17000架，几乎相当于现役机 队的60%。历史上这一比例通常稳定在30%-40%左右，积压量相当于近12年的产能。机队平均机龄已升 至15.1年，客运机队为12.8年，货运机队为19.6年，宽体机队为14.5年。尽管新飞机严重短缺，但"停 航"飞机仍超过5000架。 国际航协理事长威利·沃尔什（Willie Walsh）表示，航空业正全面感受到航空供应链瓶颈的冲击。更高 的租赁成本、调度灵活性受限、可持续发展收益延迟以及对次优机型的依赖加重，是当前最突出的挑 战。这些问题使航空公司错失了提升营收、改善环境表现、优化客户服务的机会；与此同时，旅客因需 求与运力更趋紧张面临更高成本。 国际行协认为，交付延迟加剧的主要原因包括：机身生产进度快 ...

Core Insights - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that slow supply chain production will lead to an increase in airline industry costs exceeding $11 billion by 2025 [1][2] - IATA's Director General Willie Walsh has expressed dissatisfaction with the current state of the international aviation supply chain, highlighting significant delays in aircraft, engine, and parts deliveries [1][2] - The backlog of global commercial aircraft orders has reached a historic high of over 17,000 units in 2024, significantly higher than the average backlog of approximately 13,000 units from 2010 to 2019 [1] Cost Breakdown - Additional fuel costs are projected to be the highest at approximately $4.2 billion, resulting from delays in new aircraft deliveries, forcing airlines to operate older, less fuel-efficient planes [2] - Extra maintenance costs are estimated at $3.1 billion due to the aging fleet requiring more frequent and expensive maintenance [2] - Engine leasing costs are expected to rise by $2.6 billion as older engines remain grounded longer during maintenance, with leasing rates increasing by 20% to 30% since 2019 [2] - Inventory holding costs are projected to increase by $1.4 billion as airlines stockpile more spare parts to mitigate supply chain uncertainties [2] Demand and Capacity - Passenger demand is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth of 8.7%, leading to a record load factor of 83.5% [2] - The upward trend in passenger demand is anticipated to continue throughout 2025 [2] Root Causes - The current challenges in the aviation supply chain are attributed to factors such as the economic model of the aviation manufacturing industry, geopolitical instability, raw material shortages, and a tight labor market [2] Proposed Solutions - IATA suggests several measures to alleviate supply chain issues, including opening the aftermarket to provide airlines with more parts and service options [3] - Enhancing supply chain transparency is recommended to provide airlines with necessary data to overcome bottlenecks and assist original equipment manufacturers [3] - The aviation manufacturing industry is encouraged to implement actions such as reducing reliance on original equipment manufacturers for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, and increasing alternative material and service sources [3] - Utilizing predictive maintenance insights, sharing spare parts inventory, and establishing shared maintenance data platforms are proposed to optimize inventory and reduce downtime [3] - Accelerating repair approvals and supporting the use of alternative parts and second-hand materials (USM) are also suggested to alleviate bottlenecks [3] Collaborative Efforts - IATA emphasizes the need for strategic collaboration among all stakeholders in the aviation manufacturing industry to address complex challenges [3] - Matthew Poitras from Oliver Wyman highlights the opportunity for improvement in supply chain performance through collective efforts to reshape the structure of the aviation manufacturing industry [3]

Summary of High-Temperature Alloy Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - High-temperature alloys are critical materials for aerospace engines, enhancing oxidation and corrosion resistance through elements like chromium, cobalt, and molybdenum. The most widely used nickel-based high-temperature alloy is Inconel 718, utilized for manufacturing blades and disks [1][6]. - Single crystal high-temperature alloys exhibit strong heat resistance, primarily used for turbine blades and shrouds [1][7]. - In aerospace engines, forged high-temperature alloys account for the highest proportion (60%-70%), followed by cast high-temperature alloys (20%-30%) and powder high-temperature alloys (approximately 10%) [1][9][10]. Market Dynamics - Boeing's delivery volume has declined due to the 737 MAX incident and FAA restrictions, while Airbus's delivery volume, although not meeting expectations, continues to rise [1][12]. - The aerospace supply chain faces bottlenecks, including tight titanium supply (affected by the Russia-Ukraine war) and insufficient production capacity (equipment and personnel shortages) [1][13]. - High-temperature alloy production faces capacity constraints, with rising nickel prices and market dominance by major players like PCC and ITC [1][14]. Production Challenges - The production cycle for high-temperature alloy equipment from design to operation typically exceeds two years, involving equipment manufacturing, debugging, and certification [1][15]. - The expected resolution of supply-demand conflicts by 2028 is anticipated due to long-term agreements signed by international giants, promoting capacity investment [1][16]. Material Utilization Rates - The material yield from raw materials to components is relatively low, with casting processes yielding 30%-50% material utilization, and small parts yielding only 10%-20% [1][18][19]. - Powder metallurgy processes yield approximately 50%-60% powder recovery, but the final component yield can drop to 10%-20% due to machining losses [1][20]. Competitive Landscape - The international market is dominated by companies like APSHomekit, while the domestic market is led by firms such as Yingji and the Beijing Aeronautical Materials Research Institute [1][17]. - China has advantages in titanium alloys but faces significant competition from international giants in the high-temperature alloy sector [1][14]. Future Outlook - The supply chain issues affecting aircraft engine manufacturers like GE and Safran are primarily due to upstream supply constraints, with expectations for improvement by 2028 [1][21]. - The geopolitical landscape, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade tensions, continues to impact resource availability and pricing [1][22][23]. Strategic Considerations - China's restrictions on rare earth exports significantly impact the high-temperature alloy and aerospace engine sectors, as these materials are crucial for single crystal blades [1][23]. - The industry is exploring alternatives to rare earth materials, including reducing their usage in high-temperature alloys and employing advanced cooling and coating technologies [1][24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the current state and future prospects of the high-temperature alloy industry.