中国航空业：前三季度盈利，国际航线恢复较快。2025年1-10月，行业ASK/RPK同比增长6.1%/8.2%， 平均客座率85.12%，同比提升1.7个百分点。分公司看，各航司ASK及RPK同比增长，其中国际航线 ASK和RPK增速远高于国内(三大航国内航线ASK仅增长0%-3%，国际航线ASK增速13%-20%)。2025年 前三季度国航/东航/南航分别实现归母净利润18.70/21.03/23.07亿元，三大航有望实现全年盈利。 2026年航空展望：供需格局持续改善，票价同比提升预期强 供给端，2026年预计供给增速仍然较低。 智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，展望2026年，民航国内市场运力投放增速缓慢不改，需求将 延续温和复苏态势，推动客座率再创新高、票价趋势性上涨;国际市场将受益于免签政策以及企业出海 利好效应持续释放，需求乐观增长或比预期更强，从而带动量价表现持续向好。该行预计2026年将是民 航市场量价正循环效应持续显现并被市场广泛认知的一年;也是增长引擎逐步从国内市场切换到国际市 场，从而推动行业量价上涨的一年。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 2025年回顾：全球增速放缓，中国民航迎头赶上 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand pattern continues to improve, signaling the start of an upward cycle for the aviation industry. In Q3 2025, the industry's existing supply is being continuously digested, with peak season aircraft utilization exceeding that of 2019, indicating a potential slowdown in future supply growth. Additionally, significant investment in international routes and limited growth in domestic capacity suggest an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape, with high passenger load factors likely leading to improved ticket prices. Currently, favorable oil prices and exchange rates are expected to create a "not-so-slow" trend in Q4, with the industry likely to significantly reduce losses and release profit elasticity in 2026 [3][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, overall flight volume increased by 3% year-on-year, with domestic and international flight volumes growing by 2% and 12%, respectively. Passenger volume also rose by 3.90% overall, with domestic and international passenger volumes increasing by 2.84% and 15.31% [3][12][19]. - The aircraft utilization rate has improved year-on-year, with the industry achieving an average utilization of 10 hours in July and August, exceeding the same period in 2019 by 3% and 4% [3][26]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the total operating revenue for major airlines increased year-on-year, with China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and others showing growth rates of 3.0%, 3.1%, and 1.8%, respectively. However, the operating costs for most airlines also increased, with China Southern and China Eastern slightly exceeding expectations [3][35][41]. - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q3 2025 was 5593 RMB/ton, a decrease of 11.05% year-on-year, contributing to lower operational costs for airlines [3][41]. Investment Recommendations - The investment focus is on two main lines: 1. The performance elasticity brought by rising ticket prices, recommending major airlines with larger fleets and strong cyclical attributes, as well as Hainan Airlines benefiting from specific policies, and the privately-owned airline with the best route network, Juneyao Airlines [3][45]. 2. The certainty of operational performance, recommending Huaxia Airlines with stable subsidies and Spring Airlines, which has clear cost advantages and neutral exchange rate exposure [3][45].

Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand dynamics in the aviation industry are continuously improving, indicating a positive trend for the sector moving forward [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - By the third quarter of 2025, the industry's existing supply is expected to continue to be digested, with aircraft utilization during peak seasons surpassing 2019 levels, suggesting a potential slowdown in supply growth [1] - The significant increase in international flight capacity, coupled with limited growth in domestic capacity, indicates an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape [1] Group 2: Pricing and Profitability Outlook - With high passenger load factors, there is an expectation for improvement in ticket pricing levels [1] - Current favorable conditions in oil prices and exchange rates are contributing to a trend of "not-so-slow" in the fourth quarter, with a substantial reduction in industry losses anticipated for Q4 2025 [1] - The industry is expected to release profitability elasticity in 2026, indicating a potential for improved financial performance [1]