投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/2/5 策略:短期做空性价比降低,关注低位做多06和反弹逢高做空淡季10。 免责 声明 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料， 国贸期货力求推确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整件做任何保证。 本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者带殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资看需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告仅向特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为场构成对国贸联货的侵权，我 司将视情况追究法律责任。 ITG国贸期货 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of high - low price game. The spot freight rate center is gradually rising, and the 7 - 8 month is expected to reach the peak of the peak season. However, due to the impact of the tariff trade war, the height of the freight rate should not be overestimated. The dry bulk shipping market is expected to be weak in the large - ship market in the short term and the medium - ship market is expected to be volatile and strong. The oil tanker transportation market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium [5][17][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis - On July 2, the EC contract on the futures market generally showed a downward trend, with a significant decline in trading volume. The spot container freight rates of different routes showed different trends, with the SCFIS European line increasing and the SCFIS US - West line decreasing. The spot freight rate center has gradually increased, but the freight rate should not be overestimated due to the tariff trade war. The 7 - 8 month is in the stage of increasing supply and demand, and the freight rate is expected to reach the peak of the peak season [2][5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is in a volatile state. The subsequent EC2512 can be considered to adopt the idea of buying on dips. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [5][6]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis - On July 1, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index continued to decline for the fifth consecutive trading day to near a one - month low, mainly due to the decline in demand for cape - size ships. The spot freight rates of different routes showed different trends, and the short - term large - ship market is expected to be weak, while the medium - ship market is expected to be volatile and strong [13][17]. Data Support - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased, and the expected export volume of Brazilian grains in June also changed. The inventory of major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China also decreased [16][18]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis - On July 1, the Baltic crude oil transportation index BDTI and the refined oil transportation index BCTI both declined. Recently, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil transportation market, and the VLCC freight rate has jumped significantly. In the short term, the increase in freight rates is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [20][21]. Industry Information - As of the week of June 30, the refined oil inventory in the Port of Fujairah in the UAE increased. The domestic refined oil retail price limit has experienced "three consecutive increases", but the new cycle starts with a negative change rate of crude oil, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [22].