Workflow
船司宣涨
icon
Search documents
永安期货集运早报-20251023
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:06
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Week 43/44 had good cargo receipts. The PA alliance attracted cargo by reducing prices and filled all spaces. OA and MSK accumulated container usage on some routes [2][19]. - In the second week of November, the significant decrease in newly added suspended shipping capacity (240,000 TEU) raised market expectations for shipping companies' price - increase determination. The implementation of price hikes in early November was better than expected, and OA and MSK might achieve partial implementation [2][19]. - The price - increase expectation for late November was set at the end of October, with an average weekly capacity of 300,000 TEU. The capacity in December is high but still subject to change [2][19]. - The logic of buying on dips in December remains unchanged, mainly due to upward drivers from multiple price - increase nodes in the future. However, the current valuation of December contracts is high, and they may fluctuate weakly following the spot market recently [2][19]. - Against the backdrop of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward potential of far - month contracts may be greater as the peak season approaches, but geopolitical disturbances are significant [2][19]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Data - EC2510 had a closing price of 1136.6, a change of 0.14%, a basis of 3.8, a trading volume of 1170, an open interest of 2283, and an open interest change of - 7839 [2][19]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1788.3, a change of 1.07%, a basis of - 647.9, a trading volume of 28612, an open interest of 29008, and an open interest change of 574 [2][19]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1582.9, a change of 0.95%, a basis of - 442.5, a trading volume of 4733, an open interest of 10664, and an open interest change of 431 [2][19]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1171.4, a change of 0.65%, a basis of - 31.0, a trading volume of 2101, an open interest of 14317, and an open interest change of 13 [2][19]. - EC2606 had a closing price of 1353.3, a change of - 0.57%, a basis of - 212.9, a trading volume of 117, and an open interest change of - 23 [2][19]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 651.7, with a daily change of - 17.4 and a weekly change of - 101.5. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 205.4, with a daily change of 4.1 and a weekly change of - 16.5 [2][19]. Spot Data - The spot price of ટેલનિ on October 20, 2025, was 1140.38 points, with a current increase of 10.52% and a previous decrease of - 1.40% [2][19]. - The SCFI on October 17, 2025, was 1145 dollars/TEU, with an increase of 7.21% [2][19]. - The CCFI on October 17, 2025, was 1267.91 points, with a decrease of - 1.49% [2][19]. - The NCFI on October 17, 2025, was 803.21 points, with a current increase of 14.96% and a previous increase of 11.39% [2][19]. Recent European Line Quotations - In Week 42, the final offline prices were PA1500, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 dollars, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk) [3][20]. - In Week 43, the PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 to 1400 dollars. The offline quotations were PA1400, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 dollars [3][20]. - Shipping companies' price - increase expectations for November are mostly between 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the disk. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2350 dollars, in line with expectations [3][20]. Group 4: Related News - On October 22, US Secretary of State Rubio planned to visit Israel to promote the consolidation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4][21]. - On October 22, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would impose a 155% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1, despite expressing hopes for friendly relations with Beijing [4][21]. - The XSI - C index is announced with a three - day delay [4][21].