证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 10 月度金股：聚焦高质量发展组合 2025 年 10 月 11 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 10 月预计指数将保持震荡上行态势 假期海外市场与产业层面催化都偏正面。9 月市场受阅兵、节前避险、季 末调仓等因素影响走势偏震荡，而节后压制因素将逐步消退。此外，假期 期间全球主要股市表现突出，AI 产业催化密集，预计内地资金风险偏好也 有望提升。 预期四季度货币政策或将积极变化，推动权益市场上行。9 月底召开的央 行三季度例会调整了部分关键表述：二季度对宏观经济用"向好态势"， 本次改为"稳中有进"。结合美国降息周期与国内经济，四季度货币政策 加大刺激的必要性有所增强。若四季度政策/政策预期出现积极变化，在当 前市场情绪下，将对股市产生偏正面作用。 ◼ 结构上建议聚焦科技成长 从顶层设计思想出发，继续聚焦"高质量发展相关行业"。 9 月 30 日起， 《人民日报》连发 8 篇 "钟才文" 文章，核心是明确后续经济政策要保 障高质量发展态势，或为后续四中全会、"十五五"规划思路做铺垫。同 时，央行例会也侧重该领域，后续投资仓位应将继续向 "高质量发展相关 行业"靠拢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Lihexing regarding the operational scope change of its subsidiary, Lirong Electronics, signals a strategic shift towards high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy, enhancing its competitive position in these emerging markets [1][3][4] Group 1: Business Expansion - Lirong Electronics has expanded its operational scope to include sales of electronic components, integrated circuit chips, semiconductor devices, and manufacturing of electronic specialized equipment, indicating a focus on high-tech fields [3][4] - The company has been a qualified supplier for Huawei since 2013, deepening its collaboration with Huawei and its affiliates, which has led to a market share of over 10% in the smart terminal testing sector [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with Huawei has evolved from mobile smart terminals to include 5G base stations, new energy vehicles, and digital energy, showcasing the company's adaptability and growth potential in various cutting-edge fields [3][4] - Lihexing is a key manufacturer for Huawei's liquid-cooled ultra-fast charging equipment and is involved in critical manufacturing tasks for Huawei's fully automated charging robot project [3][4] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The adjustment in operational scope allows the company to respond more flexibly to market demands and integrate industry chain resources, thereby enhancing its competitiveness in smart manufacturing and high-end electronic equipment [4] - Analysts believe that Lihexing's deep ties with technology giants like Huawei position it well for a new round of business expansion and performance growth, particularly in semiconductor and energy electronics sectors [4]

创业板指这两周继续表现强势，今日截至收盘涨1.58%。到现在，创业板指已经连涨5个月，幅度也可观，走势可以说非 常强劲。 从基本面来看，美联储新一轮降息周期开启、中美谈判保持较好的沟通节奏，提供了温和的外部环境。我们认为，当前 牛市的核心逻辑并未改变，结构性机会明确，A股成长风格相对占优。而在宏观与流动性支撑、景气度较高的背景下， 后市成长风格亦仍有机会。 我们自8月以来持续推荐创业板指，即是因为其属于成长风格的代表性宽基指数。 另外从基本面来看，创业板指聚焦新兴产业，前三大赛道均各有亮点。科技赛道，受益于AI大模型快速发展和芯片自主 可控浪潮，维持高景气，8月21DeepSeek V3.1发布，使用的UE8M0FP8参数精度专门针对下一代国产芯片设计，对国产 AI产业催化较大；医药赛道，受益于创新药政策端优化以及海外MNC积极到国内寻求授权合作，景气度有望持续改善， 国内创新药行情有望向创新药后周期传导，行情也有望向底部资产扩散，如高值耗材、医疗设备等；新能源赛道，锂电 行业呈现供需改善、技术突破与全球化布局加速的特征，光伏行业供给侧改革处于政策、技术与市场自律三力驱动的关 键整合期，景气度有望持续回升。 ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index leading with an increase of over 3% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58 points, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13157.97 points [1] Sector Highlights - Technology stocks saw accelerated investment, particularly in the storage chip sector, with stocks like Wanrun Technology and Demingli hitting the daily limit [3] - The GPU concept stocks also performed well, with Zhongke Shuguang hitting the limit and companies like Haiguang Information and SMIC reaching historical highs [3][9] Gold Sector - Gold stocks surged in the afternoon, with Shengda Resources and Hunan Silver both hitting the daily limit due to the rise in spot gold prices, which reached a new high of $3719 per ounce [6][8] - The gold sector is expected to benefit from central bank purchases and a weakening dollar, with analysts predicting a stable high for gold prices amid global economic uncertainties [8] IPO Activity - Zijin Mining International is set to launch an IPO, expected to raise approximately HKD 249.84 billion, with funds allocated for mine upgrades and acquisitions [8][9] - The IPO is seen as timely, coinciding with an upward trend in gold prices, which may enhance the company's asset valuation [9] Semiconductor Sector - The Sci-Tech 50 Index's strong performance was driven by the semiconductor industry, with companies like Chip Origin and Demingli achieving significant gains [9][10] - Huawei is advancing its chip development, with plans to release new Ascend chips between 2026 and 2028, indicating a focus on enhancing domestic semiconductor capabilities [11][12]

Market Overview - On September 18, A-shares experienced a high and then a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly approaching 3900 points before a collective drop of over 1% in the afternoon, resulting in a daily fluctuation of nearly 4% for the ChiNext Index [1] - The market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3.17 trillion yuan, a 30% increase compared to the previous period [1] ETF Performance - The "bull market flag bearers," the 300 billion yuan leading brokerage ETF (512000) and the 100 billion yuan fintech ETF (159851), fell by 2.97% and 3.4% respectively, despite high-frequency premium trading and inflows of low-buy funds [1] - The electronic ETF (515260), which covers the semiconductor and Apple supply chain, surged by 2.77%, hitting a four-year high, with a recent five-day inflow of 248 million yuan [1][4] Sector Highlights - The electronic sector led the market, with significant gains driven by domestic semiconductor breakthroughs, including historical highs for companies like SMIC [4][6] - The fintech sector faced pressure, with the fintech ETF (159851) dropping over 3%, but still attracting substantial net subscriptions of 2.77 billion shares on the day [13][15] Investment Trends - The electronic sector attracted 218 billion yuan in main funds, maintaining its position as the top sector for capital inflows over various time frames [8] - The fintech sector is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and ongoing technological innovations, with analysts predicting strong growth in the financial IT segment due to increased investments and AI integration [16][17] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market mirrored A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both closing lower, despite earlier gains [2][18] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) experienced volatility, reaching a new high before closing down 2.15%, with significant trading volume [18][21] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market could see a new round of growth driven by liquidity and improving economic conditions, with a focus on AI-related stocks [20] - The electronic and fintech sectors are expected to continue attracting investment as they align with broader technological advancements and market trends [10][17]

今日（9月18日）电子板块领涨两市，截至发稿，超300亿主力资金爆买电子板块！覆盖半导体+苹果产 业链的电子ETF（515260）场内价格一度飙涨超4.6%，现涨3.54%，刷新上市以来的高点！上交所数据 显示，电子ETF（515260）近5日累计吸金2.48亿元，反映资金看好板块后市，提前进场布局！ 成份股方面，闻泰科技、瑞芯微涨停，中微公司涨近14%，拓荆科技、沪电股份、大华股份涨超7%。 值得关注的是，中芯国际、海光信息、北方华创、工业富联齐创历史新高。 消息面上，四则重磅利好来袭：一是DeepSeek-R1开创历史，梁文锋论文登上《自然》封面；二是马斯 克表示，xAI有机会通过GROK 5达到AGI；三是华为预测，2035年全社会的算力总量将增长10万倍；四 是芯片自主可控逻辑被光刻机相关消息持续驱动。 国泰海通研报指出，Anthropic禁令加速国产AI替代进程，中芯国际作为国内领先的半导体代工企业， 具备国产算力芯片替代潜力。民生证券表示，随着寒武纪定增通过，海光信息开放CPU互联总线，国产 算力趋势明确，中芯国际作为代工环节核心企业值得关注。 值得一提的是，苹果公司近日举办了新品发布会，今年可谓 ...

人工智能迎来重磅驱动！ 今日早盘，人工智能相关板块一骑绝尘。相关ETF大涨，半导体ETF大涨超4%，科创AI ETF大涨超3%，个股涨停潮再现。不过，市场依然是结构性演 绎，盘面涨少跌多。 分析人士认为，目前市场的特点还是由科技驱动。今天，人工智能有四大重磅集体出现：一是DeepSeek-R1开创历史，梁文锋论文登上《自然》封面；二 是马斯克表示，xAI有机会通过GROK 5达到AGI；三是华为预测，2035年全社会的算力总量将增长10万倍；四是芯片自主可控逻辑被相关消息持续驱动。 集体爆发 在光模块、PCB等受限的背景之下，芯片早盘集中爆发。中芯国际A股早盘大涨超7%，华虹半导体涨幅也一度扩大至7%，寒武纪一度大涨超4%；半导体 ETF一度大涨近6%，科创AI ETF一度涨近4%。 消息面上，由DeepSeek团队共同完成、梁文锋担任通讯作者的DeepSeek-R1推理模型研究论文，登上了国际权威期刊《自然（Nature）》的封面。与今年1 月发布的DeepSeek-R1的初版论文相比，本次论文披露了更多模型训练的细节，并正面回应了模型发布之初的蒸馏质疑。DeepSeek-R1也是全球首个经过 同行评审的主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements and investments in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, emphasizing the unstoppable trend of AI development and its implications for various industries and the economy as a whole [9][10]. Group 1: AI Sector Developments - The AI-related sector has seen a remarkable surge, with semiconductor ETFs rising over 4% and AI-focused ETFs increasing by more than 3% [3]. - The DeepSeek-R1 model, co-authored by Liang Wenfeng, has been recognized on the cover of the prestigious journal Nature, marking a milestone as the first mainstream large language model to undergo peer review [6][7]. - Elon Musk's xAI aims to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) through its GROK 5 model, with the Colossus 2 data center projected to be the world's first G-Watt level cluster [7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Huawei predicts that by 2035, the total computing power in society will increase by 100,000 times, with AI storage capacity demand expected to grow by 500 times by 2025 [7]. - The Chinese AI industry is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% annually [9]. - The World Trade Organization forecasts that AI applications could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040, with trade volumes expected to increase by 34% to 37% under favorable policies [9][10]. Group 3: Domestic Semiconductor Industry - Domestic semiconductor companies like SMIC are positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift towards local AI solutions, especially in light of recent restrictions on foreign technology [8]. - The approval of funding for companies like Cambricon and the opening of CPU interconnect buses by Haiguang Information signal a clear trend towards domestic computing solutions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence sector is experiencing significant momentum, driven by major developments and predictions regarding computational power and AI capabilities [1][4][5]. Group 1: AI Developments - The DeepSeek-R1 model research paper, led by Liang Wenfeng, was featured on the cover of the prestigious journal Nature, marking a significant milestone as the first mainstream large language model to undergo peer review [3]. - Elon Musk stated that xAI has the potential to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) through its GROK 5 model, while the Colossus 2 data center is set to become the world's first G-Watt level cluster [4]. - Huawei predicts that by 2035, the total computational power in society will increase by 100,000 times, with AI storage capacity demand expected to grow by 500 times compared to 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Performance - Semiconductor stocks surged in early trading, with SMIC A-shares rising over 7% and Huahong Semiconductor also seeing a similar increase, while the semiconductor ETF rose nearly 6% [2]. - The AI-related ETFs also performed well, with the semiconductor ETF increasing by over 4% and the Sci-Tech AI ETF rising by over 3% [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Growth - China's AI industry is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan in scale by 2024, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% annually [5]. - The World Trade Organization forecasts that AI applications could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040, with trade volumes expected to increase by 34% to 37% under favorable policies [5][6].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing active performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index reaching a new intraday high of 6000 points since April this year [1] - There is a strong expectation for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit the interest-sensitive Hong Kong technology sector [1] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) has seen significant trading volume, with daily turnover exceeding 5 billion yuan from September 9 to September 12, and a net inflow of 1.186 billion yuan in September, reaching a historical high of 39.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes 30 leading Hong Kong internet and manufacturing companies, covering various sectors such as internet, media, software, automotive, and chips [2] - There has been a cumulative increase of 93.882 billion Hong Kong dollars in southbound capital since September, with internet companies being a key focus for investment [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 23.12 times, which is in the lower range of the past five years, indicating potential investment value [2]