全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2025年8月25日 目录 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 本周市场围绕降息交易展开博弈，周中市场普遍担忧鲍威尔会在全球央行年会上的论调维持谨慎，为 近期的降息交易降温，但最终周五鲍威尔的讲话意外鸽派，首先强调就业市场的下行风险正在不断积 累，一旦显现将会带来失业率的快速抬升，而关税对通胀的影响更有可能是短期一次性的，当前双重 风险更加倾向于就业走弱，其次放弃了平均通胀制，转向更加灵活的货币政策，为后续政策调整铺路， 释放9月降息信号。尽管美联储内部分歧仍然很大，但转向鸽派的声音正在增加，叠加特朗普持续施压， 短期美联储已经非常接近降息，市场也已充分定价9月降息和年内两次降息。不过考虑到美国经济的韧 性以及通胀中枢的上移，中期美联储降息空间受限，未来货币政策路径仍存变数。 近期国内处于数据和政策的空窗期，尽管宏观基本面修复有限，但股市已基本脱离基本面定价，上周 围绕芯片自主可控以及海外算力链条进行炒作，同时海外释放流动性宽松信 ...

继上周我写的《这波牛市干这七个方向就足够了》后，今天我们继续牛市话题，主要讨论三个问题： 1.产业浪潮必有牛市 2.目前有哪些产业浪潮的主线和对应ETF 3.当前投资者最大的风险是自己 产业浪潮必有牛市 远的不说了，我们回顾最近10年的行情吧。 2014-2015年牛市：移动互联网全面爆发+新能源汽车获新定位 移动互联网产业浪潮，始于2013年智能手机渗透率突破70%，并在2014-2015年期间硬件供应端和软件应用端均迎来爆 发。 如果你还在怀疑A股牛市都是闭门自嗨，那么昨晚美联储主席的鹰转鸽发言，应该能打破这层顾虑，美元的全球宽松预 期正在强化，跟A股内部的宽松事实即将形成合力，毫无疑问A股上行的趋势还会强化。 与此同时，2015年3月的《政府工作报告》中，首次提出"中国制造2025"的计划；同年5月，国务院印发《中国制造 2025》，"节能与新能源汽车"是重点发展领域之一，明确了"继续支持电动汽车、燃料电池汽车发展，掌握汽车低碳化、信 息化、智能化核心技术。" 锂电池概念板块指数，从2015年初至6月15日的最大涨幅达到122%。即便遭遇后续的巨大调整，但在四季度那波主升 浪里依然录得不小的涨幅。 其中 ...

天数智芯历经数轮融资，投资者包括大钲资本、Princeville Capital、上海电气香港、邦盛资本、沄柏资 本、粤民投资管、联通资本、金融街资本、厚朴投资、中关村科学城科技成长基金、上海国盛、熙诚致 远、新兴资产、鼎祥资本、鼎礼资本、粤港澳产融、上海自贸区股权基金等。 资料显示，天数智芯成立于2015年，致力于开发自主可控、国际领先的通用GPU产品，探索通用GPU赶 超发展道路，加快建设自主产业生态，为全产业提供算力解决方案，打造更可信、更高效、更绿色的国 内头部算力引擎。 智通财经APP获悉，据报道，内地芯片制造商天数智芯(Iluvatar CoreX)正考虑在香港进行首次公开募股 (IPO)，集资规模可能达3亿至4亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The return of NVIDIA's H20 chip to the Chinese market is seen as a strategic move amidst the ongoing US-China tech rivalry, with implications for both companies and the broader industry landscape [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's H20 Chip - NVIDIA's H20 chip was initially banned from export to China but received approval for re-entry, indicating a potential easing of restrictions, though underlying complexities remain [1]. - The H20 chip is positioned as a strong competitor in the domestic market, particularly in large model training and inference, highlighting its cost-performance advantages [2][5]. - The US Treasury Secretary acknowledged that the lifting of the ban was influenced by China's advancements in developing comparable chips, underscoring the competitive dynamics at play [2]. Group 2: Huawei's Ascend 910B Chip - Huawei's Ascend 910B chip utilizes the self-developed Da Vinci architecture, allowing for adaptability across various application scenarios, and has achieved significant energy efficiency improvements [3][5]. - The chip's manufacturing process leverages 7nm technology from SMIC, enhancing its performance and energy balance despite external restrictions [3]. - Huawei's software optimization strategies, including sparse computing and model quantization, enable the Ascend chip to deliver high performance even under constrained manufacturing conditions [5]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The competition between NVIDIA's H20 and Huawei's Ascend 910B is at a critical juncture, with both chips vying for dominance in the AI computing space [5]. - The re-entry of H20 may provide short-term relief for some domestic companies facing AI computing power shortages, but the long-term outlook for NVIDIA remains uncertain due to increasing pressure from local alternatives [5][6]. - The evolving landscape suggests a clear divergence in chip technology routes, with a growing emphasis on domestic capabilities and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential challenges China faces due to its heavy reliance on imported chips and the strategies it can adopt to mitigate the impact of a possible supply cut from the United States [1][3]. Group 1: Current Situation - The United States holds a dominant position in the global chip industry, controlling a significant portion of the world's chip reserves and possessing advanced technology [3]. - China currently imports 95% of its chips, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions [3]. Group 2: Potential Consequences - A supply cut from the U.S. could severely impact various high-tech industries in China, leading to shortages in essential products like smartphones, computers, and medical devices [3][6]. Group 3: Proposed Strategies - China should accelerate its independent research and development efforts, increasing investment in technology and talent to master core chip technologies [3][6]. - Strengthening international cooperation is essential for China to learn advanced technologies and expand its market [4]. - Building a complete industrial chain from design to manufacturing and testing is crucial for improving efficiency and competitiveness [4][6]. Group 4: Long-term Goals - While it is challenging to eliminate dependence on imported chips in the short term, a gradual and steady approach is necessary to achieve self-sufficiency in chip production [6][8]. - Enhancing the quality and performance of domestic chips is vital for competing with imported alternatives and ultimately replacing them in the market [6][8].