数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 花生主力合约 收盘价(日,元/吨) | 7812 | 12 花生主力合约 成交量(日,手) | 44455 | -24730 0 | | | 花生主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 165434 | -3033 花生交易所仓单(日,手) | 0 | | | | 花生期货前20名净持仓(日,手) | -19225 | 4446 | | | | 现货市场 | 油料花生米主要流通价格(周,元/吨) | 7565.6 | 15.6 全国花生米均价(日,元/吨) | 7840 | 80 | | | 进口苏丹精米价格(日,元/吨) | 8600 | 0 河南通货米(日,元/吨) | 7200 | 200 | | | 山东通货米(日,元/吨) | 8600 | 0 | | | | 上游情况 | 中国花生产量估计 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to repeated rainy weather in Henan, the drying conditions are poor, resulting in inconsistent moisture control of new peanuts. Currently, the supply of dry peanuts is still slow. The market trading atmosphere is sluggish, with small - scale transactions. Traders mainly make rigid purchases, and large - scale oil mills continue to wait and see, with low demand for pressing operations. Pay attention to the supply release rhythm as wheat - stubble peanuts are expected to be on the market in late September [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the peanut main contract is 7858 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 95899 lots, a decrease of 45810 lots. The open interest is 131301 lots, a decrease of 882 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 15571 lots, an increase of 3003 lots [2]. Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - using peanuts is 7572.9 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.6 yuan/ton. The national average price of peanuts is 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Henan common peanuts is 8400 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong common peanuts is 8200 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - China's estimated peanut production is 19 million tons, a decrease of 21.7 million tons. The global peanut production forecast is 51.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. China's estimated peanut harvest area is 4.85 million hectares, a decrease of 0.13 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 9.47%, an increase of 4.21%. The peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 65560 tons, a decrease of 7080 tons. The monthly import volume of peanut kernels is 9.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 18.17 thousand tons. The monthly export volume of peanut kernels is 9.01 thousand tons, an increase of 0.47 thousand tons. The processing profit of peanut oil in Henan is 74.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing profit of peanut oil in Shandong is 124.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton. The global forecast of peanut ending inventory is 4.24 million tons, unchanged. The global forecast of peanut crushing volume is 19.27 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 14670 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 15300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume of peanut oil is 41643.75 tons, an increase of 3026.9 tons. The monthly export volume of peanut oil is 899.44 tons, an increase of 263.77 tons. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 5940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.33, unchanged. The annual forecast of peanut oil production is 3491.6 thousand tons, unchanged. The global forecast of peanut oil production is 6.28 million tons, and the global forecast of domestic peanut oil consumption is 6.24 million tons, both unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 8.19%, a decrease of 0.19%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 7.83%, an increase of 0.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.43%, a decrease of 0.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.43%, a decrease of 0.86% [2]. Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises is 9.47%, an increase of 4.21% compared with the previous week [2]. Key Focus - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View - The current raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold storage goods being the main trading items and general inquiry and purchasing. Short - term drought in Henan has raised concerns about a new - season yield reduction, the amount of imported rice remains low, and the willingness of holders to support the price of high - quality cold - storage peanuts has increased, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing. Later, continue to pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas. New peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei are expected to be launched around early August, and focus on the opening price of new peanuts. As time passes and a small amount of new peanuts are launched, pay attention to the shipment of old peanuts and the change in the mentality of holders [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Peanut main contract closing price is 8140 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; trading volume is 69,637 lots, up 22,366 lots; open interest is 94,845 lots, up 836 lots; exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots. The net position of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 15,713 lots, up 483 lots [2] Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - using peanuts is 7566.7 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price of peanuts is 8700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of imported Sudan refined rice is 8350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan common peanuts is 8900 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong common peanuts is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - China's peanut production estimate is 19 million tons, down 217,000 tons; global peanut production forecast is 51.78 million tons, up 1.08 million tons. China's peanut harvest area estimate is 4.85 million hectares, down 130,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 4.63%, up 0.42 percentage points; the import volume of peanut kernels is 27,770 tons, up 13,110 tons; the peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 111,410 tons, down 5160 tons; the export volume of peanut kernels is 14,550 tons, down 2960 tons. The peanut oil processing profit in Henan is 110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 121 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan. The global peanut ending inventory forecast is 4.22 million tons, up 280,000 tons; the global peanut crushing volume forecast is 19.28 million tons, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import volume of peanut oil is 38,616.85 tons, up 9747.48 tons; the export volume of peanut oil is 876.02 tons, up 211.25 tons. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 6360 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.36, unchanged. The annual forecast of peanut oil production is 3,491,600 tons, unchanged; the global peanut oil production forecast is 6.29 million tons, unchanged; the global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil is 6.25 million tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 8.5%, up 0.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 10.72%, up 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points [2] Industry News - Peanut prices in different regions are reported, including Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, and Jilin. The raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold - storage transactions dominating. Short - term drought in Henan causes concerns about new - season yield reduction, and the import volume of rice is still low. Holders of cold - storage high - quality peanuts are more willing to support prices, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas, the opening price of new peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei in early August, the shipment of old peanuts, and the change in the mentality of holders [2]

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 花生主力合约 收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8254 | -14 花生主力合约 成交量(日,手) | 43961 | -5115 0 | | | 花生主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 123299 | -4218 花生交易所仓单(日,手) | 0 | | | | 花生期货前20名净持仓(日,手) | -5334 | 1515 | | | | 现 ...