现货价格大体平稳，期货震荡为主 现货价格大体平稳，期货震荡为主 本周各地花生市场行情延续稳中偏弱调整，价格重心下沉，基层货源收购基本结束，东北产区局部地区基层零星供应 量，收购商大多停工歇业，贸易商按需采购，观望为主，成交清淡。产区温度偏高，货源质量参差不齐，部分库外货 源质量差，报价偏低，拉低整体报价。但价格亦有支撑：流通环节库存水平不高，加上库存成本的增加，冷库内货源 短时间内料难低价供应市场；进口花生米数量同比大幅下降。 观点：据各方数据统计，新季花生种植面积小幅增加，排除极端天气影响下，新季花生总产量预计维持高位。市场入 市心态谨慎，在需求好转前，花生价格或难改弱势，不过库存压力不大，持货商挺价心理难以瓦解，或将继续为花生 价格下跌的幅度构成一定支撑。内贸市场销量无任何起色，贸易商补库谨慎，产区商品米库存消耗进度迟缓。短期看 现货价格维持区间震荡偏弱概率偏大，远期行情主要关注天气影响新季花生长势情况以及市场需求是否有明显改观。 期货方面，中短期行情需关注区间8000-8400两端价格表现，趋势行情或仍需等待。 2：行情回顾 正信期货花生周报 20250707 农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 国际花生情况及行情回顾 3 | | 第三部分 | 国内花生基本面情况 4 | | | 4 | | | 4 | | | 5 | | | 8 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | 免责声明 10 | 2025 年 6 月 27 日 花生种植面积增加，种植成本下降 第一部分 前言概要 花生研发报告 花生半年报 银河期货 第 2 页 共 10 页 花生半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 花生研发报告 第二部分 国际花生情况及行情回顾 第 3 页 共 10 页 图 1：2011-2024 年主要花生生产国产量（千吨） 图 2：2024 年主要花生生产国（万吨） 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2011-2024年主要花生生产国产量 中国 美国 塞内加尔 苏丹 印度 尼日利亚 坦桑利亚 1900, 37% 710, 14% 430, 8% 308, 6% 200, 4% 170, 3% 175, 4% 110, 2% 1149, 22% 2024年主要 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The peanut market is in a volatile situation. The spot price has risen, and the futures market is mainly fluctuating. After a rapid rise in the producing - area market, the short - term market has entered a stage of stalemate, consolidation, and a slight correction. The futures market is expected to have limited downward space due to the relatively strong spot situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: As of May 22, 2025, the average price of national general peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton, up 2.41% from the previous week. The spot market showed a volatile upward trend, with the tight supply situation supporting the price [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the week of May 23, the peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main contract (PK2510) was 8428 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8216 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8308 yuan/ton (compared with 8232 yuan/ton in the previous week) [1]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Producing Areas**: After a rapid rise, the short - term market is in a stage of stalemate, consolidation, and a slight correction. Some producing - area inventories need to be cleared for profit, and the market's willingness to buy at high prices has decreased. The terminal sales are sluggish, and the market inventory needs further consumption. The oil - mill acquisitions are gradually ending [2]. - **Futures Market**: It is mainly volatile. The normal - temperature inventory of traders and screening plants in the core producing areas needs to be cleared for cash. The inventory in some producing areas has been transferred to cold storage, and the shutdown rate of screening plants has increased. The market - circulating goods show a concentrated trend. After the price on the disk reached a high, it declined due to rainfall in the North China producing area and the end of oil - mill stocking. The downward space of the disk is expected to be limited because of the strong spot situation [2]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts has strengthened, while the basis of Sudan refined peanuts has weakened [6]. - **Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread has weakened (data update stopped), and the 10 - 11 spread is also presented in the report [7]. 3.4 Price Data - The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan, increased by about 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - The arrival volume of 6 oil - peanut markets was about 0.53 million tons, down 9.09% from the previous week and 1.96% from the same period last year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial - peanut markets was about 0.42 million tons, down 21.43% from the previous week and up 0.59% from the same period last year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 0.95 million tons, down 15.05% from the previous week and 0.84% from the same period last year [12]. 3.5 Supply The arrival volumes of oil - peanut, commercial - peanut, and domestic markets have all declined [16][17][23]. 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 3.27 million tons, up 22.93% from the previous week but down 44% from the same period last year [25]. - The mainstream quotation of domestic first - grade peanut oil is 14500 - 15500 yuan/ton, with most oil - mill quotations rising, and there is some bargaining space in actual transactions [25]. - The mainstream quotation of peanut meal is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton. Most oil mills have raised the price affected by soybean meal, but the downstream feed mills have weak purchasing willingness [25]. - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was - 35.64 yuan/ton, up 8.62 yuan/ton from the previous week [25]. - The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 15.02%, up 1.75% from the previous week but down 7.98% from the same period last year [25]. - The peanut - pressing volume of sample oil mills was about 2.66 million tons, up 13.16% from the previous week but down 34.7% from the same period last year [25]. 3.7 Inventory The peanut inventory in oil mills has increased, while the peanut - oil inventory in oil mills has remained stable [27].

花生：关注上量 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 现货市场，花生现货市场提前进入油商分离的行情，花生油季节性淡季，花生粕跟随豆粕价格小幅回 调，部分油厂完成刚需备货，大型油厂开机、卸货率提升，部分工厂后续到货量难以维持开机，面临部分 停机的情况；多数产区农户播种农忙结束，小部分余货无保存条件面临出货；市场端午节刚需备货，货源 收购及贸易不断集中，整体中间环节库存成本未有盈利，通货成本上升，商品报价坚挺上涨。 期货市场，震荡为主。5 月中旬至 6 月中旬，农户及基层商贩余货被动出清，部分质量较差货源短期 可能拉低价格。进口方面，塞内加尔开关后价格偏高，苏丹战乱导致贸易瘫痪，CNF 报价较高，进口成本 高风险高，贸易商无贸易进口空间。后续关注新季花生播种情况，如果华北产区天气较干，盘面可能继续 上行。 风险点：宏观环境，资金因素，天气因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 报告导读： （1） 花生市场回顾 现货市场，花生价格上涨。截止至 2025 年 5 月 15 日，全国通货米均价为 8300 元/吨， ...