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银河期货花生日报-20250811
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 09:56
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of peanuts is still low, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short term. The price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. With the expected increase in planting area, decrease in planting cost, and the listing of some spring peanuts, Peanut 10 will continue to oscillate narrowly [5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7960, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 24 (up 26.32%) and an open interest of 252 (up 6.33%); PK510 closed at 8074, down 24 (-0.30%), with a trading volume of 34,942 (up 3.59%) and an open interest of 98,959 (down 0.27%); PK601 closed at 7948, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 3,815 (up 76.70%) and an open interest of 16,339 (up 8.21%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.2 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.25 - 4.35 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of peanut oil was 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - price of oil mills was 8110 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil was 14800 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton [5]. - **By - products**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was strong, reaching 2930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from yesterday. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and the peanut meal was expected to be weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 12 (unchanged), PK04 - PK10 was - 114 (up 14), and PK10 - PK01 was 126 (down 14) [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable, and the price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was also stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively weak in the short term. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Peanut 10 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and mainly short after a rebound [10]. - **Month - spread**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [14][20][23].
花生:关注产区天气
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on peanut fundamentals, tracking prices, trading volumes, and trends, and notes that attention should be paid to weather in peanut - producing areas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Prices of various peanut varieties decreased, with辽宁308通货 at 8,600 yuan/ton (-200),河南白沙通货 at 8,760 yuan/ton (-200),兴城小日本 at 8,440 yuan/ton (-260), and苏丹精米 at 8,600 yuan/ton (-100) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,142 yuan/ton (0.05% daily increase), and PK511 at 8,034 yuan/ton (0.48% daily increase) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PK510 trading volume was 119,194 hands (increase of 91,625 hands), open interest was 101,662 hands (increase of 4,603 hands); PK511 trading volume was 44,296 hands (increase of 29,110 hands), open interest was 69,643 hands (decrease of 484 hands); peanut full - market trading volume was 170,315 hands (increase of 125,036 hands), open interest was 186,421 hands (increase of 5,422 hands) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Peanut full - market warehouse receipts were 0 hands with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**:辽宁308通货基差 was 458 yuan/ton,河南白沙通货基差 was 618 yuan/ton,兴城小日本基差 was 298 yuan/ton,苏丹精米基差 was 458 yuan/ton, and 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 108 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, remaining stocks are almost exhausted, trading is mainly from inventory, inquiries are few, and prices are determined by quality. Good - quality peanuts have firm prices, with prices in Baisha producing areas slightly weakening and those in large - peanut producing areas stable [2]. - In Jilin, 308 common rice is around 4.3 - 4.4. Raw material trading is ending, with sporadic supplies, normal inquiries, slightly weakening peanut prices, and stable peanut - fruit prices [2]. - In Liaoning, grass - roots raw material procurement has ended, trading is mainly from inventory. Quality varies greatly, prices are determined by quality, inquiries are few, and prices in most areas are slightly weakening [2]. - In Shandong, raw material procurement has ended, trading is mainly from cold - storage stocks. Most areas have little remaining inventory, and trading is in the final stage [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].
现货走强后偏弱调整,期货或重回震荡区
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:53
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Spot peanuts are expected to maintain a high - level and slightly weak adjustment in the short term, and the futures price may return to the oscillation area. The strategy should mainly treat it as range - bound. Pay attention to the price performance at both ends of the 8000 - 8500 range for the 10 - contract [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Main View - This week, peanut prices in various producing areas reached a high and then slightly declined. Traders in Henan and Northeast China were cautious in high - price purchases, and the trading volume was light. The domestic market demand was flat, and the consumption progress of goods was slow. The arrival volume of imported peanuts decreased significantly compared with the same period. Oil mills were in the process of ending purchases, and the peanut oil market would end steadily. Domestic demand has not recovered, and there is a lack of trading volume to support price increases. However, due to the decreasing supply at the grass - roots level in producing areas and low inventory levels, prices are also difficult to fall sharply in the short term [6]. 2. Market Review - **2.1 This month**: The peanut weighted index briefly broke through the range, but the buyer's power was weak, and attention should be paid to the trading volume when the price pulls back. The price of the oilseed sector remained in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the direction of the breakthrough [8]. - **2.2 2510 contract**: The upward price increase of the 10 - main contract slowed down, and attention should be paid to the price pull - back situation [11]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Oil mill inventory and operating rate**: The weekly inventory of peanut oil was 40,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of oil mills was 8.42%, a decrease of about 3.1% compared with the previous week [14]. - **3.2 Peanut general price (Baisha)**: The prices in the main producing areas of Northeast and Henan continued to be strong and then slowed down in their upward trend [18]. - **3.3 Peanut oil price trend**: The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this week was 14,950 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week [21]. - **3.4 Peanut meal price trend**: The price of peanut meal was weakly oscillating this week, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal were oscillating upwards [25]. - **3.5 Imported peanut quantity and price**: There were few imported peanuts. The supply of Sudanese refined peanuts was limited, and no new peanuts had arrived at the port. The import price was rising strongly. The procurement of Senegalese peanuts was limited [29]. - **3.6 Market price index compared with last month**: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price was mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price was relatively stable [34]. 4. Spread Tracking - **4.1 Basis spread**: No specific analysis content was provided, only the data range of the basis spread was given [35].
小花生承载大梦想 期货托举着真情怀
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-27 05:21
Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the expansion of peanut cultivation as a key measure for ensuring national grain and oil security, with Shandong province leading in peanut planting and industry chain innovation [3][14][15] Industry Overview - The peanut industry in Shandong is experiencing a transformation through futures trading and full industry chain innovation, showcasing how a small crop can lead to significant industrial achievements [3][4] - The "Yuhuang Grain and Oil Food Co., Ltd." has become a leading enterprise with an annual processing capacity of 600,000 tons, highlighting its cultural values and commitment to innovation in the peanut sector [4][5] Company Innovations - "Yuhuang Grain and Oil" is innovating production processes and developing financial products related to the peanut industry, aiming to create a national peanut trading center [4][5] - "Jinsheng Grain and Oil Group" leverages futures trading to manage risks and enhance its comprehensive peanut industry chain, becoming a supplier for major brands [7][8] Market Dynamics - The launch of peanut futures has provided industry players with tools to manage market risks and improve operational efficiency, leading to a more competitive landscape [9][12] - Companies are increasingly focusing on high-value products and deep processing to meet market demands, with a shift from traditional processing methods [11][14] Future Outlook - The peanut industry is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased planting area and government support, aligning with national strategies for agricultural modernization and rural revitalization [14][15] - The integration of futures trading into the peanut industry is seen as a pathway for achieving high-quality development and enhancing the overall competitiveness of the sector [10][15]
花生市场周报「2025.05.23」-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 09:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main peanut contract 2510 rose by 0.92%, closing at 8308 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, peanut imports continued to decline in April, and the overall import demand was still significantly lower than the same period last year. However, the peanut inventory of sample oil mills was at a relatively high level in history, resulting in a relatively loose supply. On the demand side, although the profit of oil mill crushing turned from loss to profit, boosting market confidence, the downstream demand was weak, the operating rate decreased significantly year-on-year, and there was a wait - and - see attitude towards the existing inventory at stable prices. Traders made purchases as needed, and the overall trading atmosphere was dull. In addition, in the oil market, the significant decline in crude oil prices during the inventory accumulation period and the lower - than - expected demand outlook for US soybean oil led to a decline in the oil sector. Overall, with weak demand and loose supply, peanut prices are expected to decline oscillatingly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main peanut contract 2510 rose by 0.92%, closing at 8308 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. Peanut prices are expected to decline oscillatingly [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price Movement**: The main peanut contract 2510 rose by 0.92%, closing at 8308 yuan/ton [12]. - **Futures Spread**: The closing price spread between peanut contracts 2510 and 2601 narrowed, closing at 8308 yuan/ton [16]. - **Net Position of Top 20 Traders**: As of May 23, 2024, the net position of the top 20 traders in peanut futures was - 7485 lots, an increase of 3409 lots compared to last week [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 23, 2024, the number of registered peanut warehouse receipts was 0 (-649) [26]. - **Spot Price**: As of May 23, the spot prices of common peanuts in Shandong and Henan were 8500 (+100) yuan/ton and 8600 (+400) yuan/ton respectively. As of the week of May 10, the average price of national oil - grade peanuts was 7566.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [29]. - **Market Structure**: As of May 23, 2024, the basis was 158.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the market was in a backwardation state [35]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The peanut harvest area in 2025 is expected to increase slightly [40]. - **Oil Mill Operations**: As of May 23, the operating rate of sample oil mills was 12.86 (-0.52)%, a decrease of 11.44% compared to the same period last year; the peanut inventory of sample oil mills was 154280 (+260) tons [45]. - **Oil Mill Profit**: This week, the processing profit of sample oil mills in Shandong and Henan was 45.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. - **Import and Export**: In April 2025, the total peanut import volume was 12979.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 91.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2210.54 tons; the total export volume was 17506.64 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.60% and a month - on - month decrease of 629.61 tons [57]. - **Downstream Products - Peanut Oil**: As of May 23, the ex - factory price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil was about 14800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week; the price of fragrant peanut oil was about 15800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton compared to last week [63]. - **Downstream Products - Peanut Meal**: This week, the price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong was 3300 (+0) yuan/ton. As of May 23, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was 340 yuan/ton, the same as last week [68]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: As of May 23, the 20 - day historical volatility of the peanut option underlying was 12.31%, a decrease of 1.1% compared to last week; the 40 - day volatility was 11.64%, an increase of 0.18% compared to last week [73].
花生:关注上量
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-18 08:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Spot Market**: The peanut spot market has entered an oil - merchant separation phase. With the seasonal off - peak for peanut oil, peanut meal prices have slightly adjusted downward following soybean meal. Some oil mills have completed their essential stockpiling, while some may face partial shutdowns due to insufficient subsequent arrivals. As most farmers have finished sowing, some are selling their remaining peanuts. With the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, there is essential stockpiling, leading to a concentration of peanut trading. The cost of intermediate inventories has not been profitable, and the cost of general peanuts has risen, resulting in firm and rising commodity quotes [2]. - **Futures Market**: The futures market is expected to be mainly volatile. From mid - May to mid - June, the remaining peanuts of farmers and grassroots traders will be forced out of the market, and some low - quality peanuts may temporarily lower prices. High import costs and risks limit the import space for traders. The market should focus on the new peanut sowing situation, and if the weather in the North China region is dry, the futures price may continue to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: As of May 15, 2025, the average price of national general peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase from the previous week. The spot market showed a steady - to - strong trend, with trading sentiment warming up and prices gradually rising. Factors such as the depletion of grassroots stocks and the impact of the busy farming season on supply led to a low volume of peanuts on the market. The sowing progress of the new season was delayed due to dry weather, and the subsequent growth situation remained uncertain [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the week of May 16, peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main peanut contract (PK2510) was 8268 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8102 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8232 yuan/ton (compared to 8106 yuan/ton the previous week) [1]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Spot Market**: The market has entered an oil - merchant separation phase. Peanut oil is in a seasonal off - peak, and peanut meal prices have slightly adjusted downward. Some oil mills may face partial shutdowns. With the end of the sowing season for most farmers, some are selling their remaining peanuts. There is essential stockpiling for the Dragon Boat Festival, and the concentration of trading has led to rising prices [2]. - **Futures Market**: It will be mainly volatile. From mid - May to mid - June, the forced sale of remaining peanuts may temporarily lower prices. High import costs and risks limit imports. The new sowing situation is crucial, and dry weather in North China may drive up the futures price [2]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts has strengthened, while the basis of Sudanese refined peanuts has weakened [5]. - **Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread has weakened (data update stopped), and the 10 - 11 spread has also weakened [6]. 3.4 Price Data The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan has increased by about 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan has risen, while the price of Sudanese refined peanuts has remained stable [10][11]. 3.5 Supply - The arrival volume of 6 oil - type peanut markets was about 0.58 million tons, a 18.1% increase from the previous week and a 57.66% increase compared to the same period last year. - The arrival volume of 14 commodity - type peanut markets was about 0.54 million tons, a 31.78% increase from the previous week and a 78.83% increase compared to the same period last year. - The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.12 million tons, a 24.33% increase from the previous week and a 67.22% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of peanuts has remained stable [12]. 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 3.27 million tons, a 22.93% increase from the previous week but a 44% decrease compared to the same period last year. - The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton, with most oil mills raising their quotes, and there was some negotiation space for actual transactions. - The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, with most oil mills adjusting their prices upward following soybean meal. Downstream feed mills were either consuming their inventories or waiting and watching, with weak purchasing willingness. - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills was - 44.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.72 yuan/ton from the previous week. - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 13.27%, a 3.51% increase from the previous week but a 13.62% decrease compared to the same period last year. - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 2.36 million tons, a 36.36% increase from the previous week but a 50.64% decrease compared to the same period last year [18]. 3.7 Inventory - The peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, while the peanut oil inventory of oil mills has remained stable [20].
花生:现货偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 02:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The spot market of peanuts is relatively strong, with most peanut - producing areas showing stable - to - firm prices due to factors such as farmers being busy with farming and low selling willingness, resulting in limited supply [1][2] - The peanut futures market shows price increases and changes in trading volume and open interest [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various peanut varieties have different changes. For example, the price of Liaoning 308 general - purpose peanuts increased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,160 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha general - purpose peanuts increased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,000 yuan/ton, Xingcheng Small Japanese peanuts increased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,380 yuan/ton, and Sudan refined peanuts remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Prices and Trading Data**: PK510 closed at 8,222 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; PK511 closed at 8,132 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The trading volume and open interest of PK510 and PK511 both increased, and the trading volume of the entire peanut futures market was 83,474 lots, an increase of 42,521 lots, with open interest of 134,104 lots, an increase of 13,701 lots. The number of peanut warehouse receipts in the entire market remained unchanged at 1,500 lots [1] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Liaoning 308 general - purpose peanuts is - 62 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha general - purpose peanuts is - 222 yuan/ton, Xingcheng Small Japanese peanuts is 158 yuan/ton, Sudan refined peanuts is 128 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 inter - period spread is 90 yuan/ton [1] 2. Spot Market Focus - **Henan Region**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general - purpose peanuts in Huangludian is around 4.2 - 4.25 yuan, and the price of large - grain peanuts in Kaifeng is around 4.1 yuan. Due to farmers being busy with farming and low selling willingness, the supply is limited. In recent days, inquiries and purchases have improved compared to the previous days, with most Baisha - producing areas showing stable - to - firm prices and large - grain peanut - producing areas having stable prices [2] - **Jilin Region**: In Jilin, the price of 308 general - purpose peanuts is around 4.1 - 4.15 yuan, 9616 general - purpose peanuts is around 4.05 yuan, and four - grain red general - purpose peanuts is around 4.2 - 4.4 yuan. Farmers are in the busy farming season, the supply is limited, downstream customers make small - quantity replenishments, the circulation speed of goods has improved, and most areas show stable - to - firm prices [2] - **Liaoning Region**: In Liaoning, the supply at the grass - roots level is limited. The mainstream price of 308 general - purpose peanuts is around 4.05 - 4.1 yuan, with price determined by quality and mostly inventory - based transactions. The number of buyers has increased in most areas, and prices are stable - to - firm. At the Xingcheng market, the price of Small Japanese general - purpose peanuts is around 4.16 - 4.21 yuan, with 30 - plus trucks of supply, fast sales, and basically stable prices [2] - **Shandong Region**: In Shandong, most areas have little supply, with inventory - based transactions. Some areas source goods from outside. The price of Haihua general - purpose peanuts in Linyi is around 3.9 yuan, the price of good - quality Weihua 8 general - purpose peanuts in Pingdu is around 4.35 - 4.4 yuan, and the price of Luhua 11 general - purpose peanuts is around 4.35 - 4.4 yuan. The number of buyers has increased in some areas, and prices are stable - to - firm [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]