Core Viewpoint - Apple is expected to experience a significant increase in demand starting in the second half of 2025, surpassing the highs of 2022 and 2023, and approaching levels seen in 2018 [2][14]. Supply Situation - Apple supply is characterized by seasonal production and annual sales, with concentrated harvesting occurring from September to November each year [4][16]. - The projected apple production for 2025 is 34.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons from the previous year, indicating a reduction in supply [4][16]. - Current apple cold storage inventory stands at 6.82 million tons, continuing a downward trend and marking the lowest stock levels in recent years [6][18]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for apples is characterized by rigidity and differentiated fluctuations, primarily influenced by holiday consumption and seasonal fruit substitutes [10][22]. - The peak consumption period occurs during the Spring Festival, with increased stocking for holidays and limited winter fruit varieties [10][22]. - Since January, the volume of apple shipments has been steadily increasing as pre-holiday consumption has begun [10][22]. Inventory Implications - Low inventory levels suggest that there may be insufficient supply if consumption increases significantly, particularly before holidays [7][19]. - Without new supply, existing inventory will continue to deplete until the new apple harvest in 2026 [9][21].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Sharp Rise, Pay Attention to Festival Stocking Situation - Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report" and was released on January 9, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Performance This Week - The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 6.24% [8] Group 3: Supply - Side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, with a cold - storage inventory ratio of about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a historically low level, providing some support for apple prices [13][36] Group 4: Demand - Side Situation Cold - Storage Shipment - As of January 9, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a two - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 49.18%, with a two - week decrease of 2.56 percentage points [18] Export Volume - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The new - season apple listing was delayed, and the export volume recovered in November due to increased overseas demand as Christmas approached [20] Spot Price - As of January 9, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended collection price of first - and second - grade apples above 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for farmers' piece - red apples, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, and 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchants' goods. The overall transaction was stable, and customers started packaging gift boxes [32] Group 5: Weekly Viewpoint - The low inventory provides support for apple prices. The cold - storage capacity ratio is decreasing, and the de - stocking rate is increasing. The export volume is expected to continue to grow in the first quarter. The Spring Festival is postponed this year, extending the stocking time. With sufficient supply and increased farmers' willingness to sell, merchants are purchasing cost - effective goods. The market is strong, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish - on - oscillation approach, while paying attention to festival stocking [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory is at a historically low level, providing support for apple prices. The cold storage capacity ratio has decreased, and the destocking rate is 2.17%. With the approaching of Christmas and New Year's Day, the festival boost effect is obvious. The decline in production and quality strongly supports prices. Due to the nature of apples as seasonally - produced and annually - sold storage fruits, quality issues may increase storage costs. The quantity of high - quality goods is scarce, and the proportion of average - quality goods is increasing. It is expected that the price differentiation of different - quality goods will be significant in the later stage, and the futures contracts may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, continued to fluctuate at a high level, with continuous game between long and short forces [8]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was 7197900 tons, and the cold storage inventory ratio was about 54.65%, 7.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a historically low position, providing support for apple prices [13][36]. 3.3 Demand - Side Situation - Cold storage shipment volume is gradually increasing. As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume decreased by 0.03 percentage points compared with last week, and the destocking rate was 2.17%. In Shandong, the cold storage capacity ratio was 55.09%, with a decrease of 0.24 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold storage capacity ratio was 53.12%, with a decrease of 0.36 percentage points this week [17]. - In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 80400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The late listing of new - season apples led to a significant year - on - year decrease in export volume in October [20]. - As of December 12, the apple prices in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable. There was little trading, and e - commerce platforms purchased other varieties [32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline this week with a slight rebound. With the inventory at a five - year low, the supply and demand situation is complex. The current apple is in the off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, and the downstream demand is under pressure. Although the export performance was good in the first quarter, the export volume may slow down. Short - term operation suggests waiting and seeing [8][35] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline with a slight rebound [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the total remaining amount of apples in national cold storage was 1.6582 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold - storage remaining amount in Shandong was 951,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 447,200 tons. Shaanxi storage merchants generally had a strong reluctance to sell and asked for high prices, while Shandong storage merchants were more willing to ship [13][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory and Sales**: As of May 15, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 12.55%, a 1.92 - percentage - point decline from the previous period and a 9.82 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The destocking rate was 80.27%. The apple is in the sales off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, the downstream demand is impacted, the enthusiasm of merchants for high - price purchases has declined, the e - commerce platform sales volume has decreased, and the shipping speed in the production area has slowed down [18][35] - **Export**: In March 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,100 tons, a 40.82% increase from the previous month and a 1.71% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to March was about 255,600 tons, a 9.53% increase year - on - year. However, as the price of origin goods rises, the profit margin of traders is compressed, and the export volume may slow down [20] - **Substitute Fruit Price**: Not provided - **Origin Spot Price**: As of May 16, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of different grades of apples varied, but the high labor price, low packaging volume, and reduced cold - storage trading volume [31]