1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of apple futures is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the apple market is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options operations [9][61][62] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, fluctuated within a range and slightly increased overall. As of the afternoon close on February 6, 2026, the apple 2605 contract closed at 9,535 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton for the week, a rise of 0.18% [6][12] 3.1.2 Spot Price - **Shandong**: Packaging and shipping in Shandong's production areas were okay. Fruit farmers' sales were concentrated in third - grade and small fruits. The prices of 75 and 80 fruit farmers' first - and second - grade apples in Penglai were 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin and 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin respectively. In Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin [18] - **Shaanxi**: In Yan'an, customers packed and shipped their own inventory. In Weinan and Xianyang, the transactions improved. The prices of 70 and above semi - commercial apples in Luochuan were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and the prices of 70 and above general goods were 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin [23] 3.2 Production Area Situation - On February 7, 2026, the Spring Festival stocking of apples entered the final stage. Fruit farmers' transactions were mainly low - priced goods, and the transaction prices remained stable and weak. In Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu, the market conditions in different production areas varied, but generally, the prices were stable or slightly weak [24][25][26] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of February 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.1981 million tons, a decrease of 342,500 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed accelerated compared to the previous week and was higher than the same period last year. The inventory ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, and Liaoning all decreased [36][37] 3.4 Sales Area Situation - Last week, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Chalong Market in Guangdong increased significantly compared to the previous week. The average daily arrival was about 51.2 vehicles. The market was congested with vehicles, and the sales of general goods and gift boxes were slow [41] 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - Last week, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [46] 3.6 Key Fruit Market - Last week, the average wholesale price of six key fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The prices of Ya pears and bananas increased, while those of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, watermelons, and pineapples decreased [50] 3.7 Export Situation - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a month - on - month increase in exports [55] 3.8 Production Statistics - In 2025, the national apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% compared to 2024. Shaanxi, Shandong, and Gansu had production declines, while Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning had production increases [57] 3.9 Market Outlook - The decline in the production and quality of new - season apples and low inventory strongly support prices. The current focus of the market is the Spring Festival stocking. As the stocking nears the end, the packaging volume is decreasing. The inventory removal accelerated last week, and the export volume is expected to increase in the first quarter. However, the large supply of citrus fruits with low prices impacts apple consumption. Therefore, the apple futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [60][61] 3.10 Operation Strategy - The main contract of apple futures is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options operations [62][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a slight upward trend and maintained a volatile market. The pre - festival stocking effect boosted the market. The current cold - storage apple supply is relatively sufficient, with fruit farmers having a high willingness to sell. Good - quality apples are in short supply, and prices are slightly stronger. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the packaging volume is gradually decreasing. The market is expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see [8][13][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The apple futures main contract AP2605 slightly strengthened and maintained a volatile market. The pre - festival stocking effect drove the market up [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of February 5, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 5.6351 billion tons, with an inventory ratio of about 42.79%, 4.08 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Cold - storage supplies are relatively sufficient, fruit farmers are eager to sell, and the proportion of good - quality apples is small, with prices being stable and slightly stronger [13]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - **Inventory and Packaging**: As of February 5, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.85 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 23.41%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the packaging volume is gradually decreasing [18]. - **Export Volume**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The first quarter is the peak export season, and the export volume is expected to remain at a high level [20]. - **Substitute Fruit Prices**: Not elaborated in the report. - **Spot Prices**: As of February 6, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The overall packaging was okay, but some cold - storage facilities reported a gradual decrease in packaging volume [31]. 3.4 Week - long View - The cold - storage apple supply is sufficient, fruit farmers are eager to sell, and good - quality apples are scarce with stable and slightly stronger prices. The pre - festival stocking is ending, and packaged goods are being shipped to the market. The purchase situation in the northwest production area is good. The Spring Festival support boosts demand, but the later sales time is compressed, and the supply of citrus squeezes the apple market. The market is expected to remain volatile before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply - side shows that as of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory is about 6.3232 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The new - season apple cold - storage inventory is lower due to yield decline, but there is sufficient supply at present. The proportion of high - quality apples in cold storage is low, and the cost of merchants after sorting is high. The demand - side indicates that as of January 22, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage shipment volume during the Spring Festival stocking period has increased slightly, but is slightly lower than last year. The market focus has shifted to the demand side. The Spring Festival delay is beneficial for apple sales in cold storage, and the export volume is expected to increase. However, high fruit prices and the large supply of substitute fruits have impacted apple consumption. The market is expected to be range - bound, and the operation suggestion is to buy low and sell high within the range [1][2][39]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review - In January 2026, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a slight rebound currently. The Spring Festival stocking started, and the delay of the Spring Festival increased the stocking time, boosting the market to 10,019 yuan/ton. But the delayed Spring Festival also means a narrower sales window later, and the reduction of long - positions led to the market decline [7]. Part II: Fundamental Analysis of Apples 1. Shortage of High - quality Apples, Difficulty in Solving the Problem of High - quality Fruit Rate in the Short Term - As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory is about 6.3232 million tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period of the past seven years. Shandong has about 2.4516 million tons, Shaanxi about 1.7369 million tons, and non - main producing areas about 2.1347 million tons. The yield decline led to a lower inventory, but there is sufficient supply. The proportion of high - quality apples in cold storage is low, and the defective rate of some farmers' apples is high, leading to high sorting costs for merchants [10]. 2. Accelerated Shipping Speed in Producing Areas during the Spring Festival Stocking Period - As of January 22, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate was 14.06%. The cold - storage shipment volume in Shandong increased slightly during the Spring Festival stocking period, but was slightly lower than last year. In Shaanxi, the shipment volume is gradually increasing. The delay of the Spring Festival is beneficial for apple sales in cold storage, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm and shipping speed [16]. 3. Increase in Fresh Apple Imports in December - China's fresh apple imports are mainly from countries such as New Zealand, the United States, and Chile. In December 2025, the import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The import demand is expected to increase, but the import scale is expected to remain at the current level [20]. 4. Export Peak Season for Fresh Apples, Recovery in Export Volume - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In December 2025, the export volume was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The export volume increased significantly due to the Christmas and New Year festivals. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a month - on - month increase in export volume, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [23]. 5. Impact on Apple Demand due to the Listing of Citrus Fruits - In recent years, the overall fruit harvest and imported fruits have increased market choices. Citrus, which is in season from November to March, is a major winter fruit. Due to the large supply and low price of citrus, it competes with apples during the Spring Festival. In January, fruit prices remained high, and the large supply of substitute fruits such as citrus and cherries at low prices has impacted the terminal consumption demand for apples [26][29]. 6. Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Apple prices have obvious seasonality. The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by factors such as inventory clearance, reduced supply of seasonal fruits, and festival stocking. November and December are affected by new - fruit supply and festival effects. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and inventory quality decline. August is affected by the listing of early - maturing apples and inventory quality issues. October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the listing of substitute pears [33][34]. 7. Stable Spot Prices in Producing Areas, Price Differentiation among Different - Quality Apples - As of January 23, 2026, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of high - quality apples is stable. The high - quality apples are priced at 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for 80 above first - and second - grade farmers' slice - red apples, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchants' 80 above first - and second - grade apples. The price difference between large and small apples may further widen during the cold - storage sales period, and the futures far - month contracts may remain strong [37]. Part III: Outlook for the Future Market - The supply - side situation is the same as the previous analysis, with low inventory and a low proportion of high - quality apples. The demand - side shows a slightly lower cold - storage shipment volume compared to last year. The market focus is on Spring Festival stocking. The Spring Festival delay and the export peak season are beneficial for demand recovery, but high fruit prices and substitute fruits have impacted consumption. The market is expected to be range - bound, and the operation suggestion is to buy low and sell high within the range [39][40].

Group 1 - Apple futures main contract experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of 9422.00 yuan, with a current price of 9517.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 3.18% [1] - According to Ruida Futures, the upward resistance for apples continues to increase, with overall trading in cold storage in Shandong being sluggish and foreign trade demand decreasing [2] - Green Dahan Futures predicts that apple prices are likely to maintain a high-level range oscillation, with no significant changes in trading across production areas and a weak price trend for most farmers [2] Group 2 - The speed of inventory reduction in Shaanxi is slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year, indicating limited overall inventory movement [2] - The market in sales areas remains quiet, with reduced arrival volumes and increased pressure on sales, leading to more accumulation in transit warehouses [2] - The current price behavior is influenced by general consumption logic, but structural contradictions related to low inventory levels and low quality fruit rates remain unresolved, suggesting a likelihood of high-level price oscillation in the long term [2]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Sharp Rise, Pay Attention to Festival Stocking Situation - Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report" and was released on January 9, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Performance This Week - The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 6.24% [8] Group 3: Supply - Side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, with a cold - storage inventory ratio of about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a historically low level, providing some support for apple prices [13][36] Group 4: Demand - Side Situation Cold - Storage Shipment - As of January 9, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a two - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 49.18%, with a two - week decrease of 2.56 percentage points [18] Export Volume - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The new - season apple listing was delayed, and the export volume recovered in November due to increased overseas demand as Christmas approached [20] Spot Price - As of January 9, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended collection price of first - and second - grade apples above 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for farmers' piece - red apples, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, and 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchants' goods. The overall transaction was stable, and customers started packaging gift boxes [32] Group 5: Weekly Viewpoint - The low inventory provides support for apple prices. The cold - storage capacity ratio is decreasing, and the de - stocking rate is increasing. The export volume is expected to continue to grow in the first quarter. The Spring Festival is postponed this year, extending the stocking time. With sufficient supply and increased farmers' willingness to sell, merchants are purchasing cost - effective goods. The market is strong, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish - on - oscillation approach, while paying attention to festival stocking [36]

Group 1 - Apple futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 9499.00 yuan, with a current price of 9492.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.61% [1] - Guosen Futures predicts that the apple market will primarily experience wide fluctuations within a range, with a focus on holiday inventory conditions [2] - Green Dahan Futures indicates that apple prices are likely to maintain high-level fluctuations, with overall trading in production areas being slightly sluggish [2] - Southwest Futures expects a strong price trend in the medium to long term, despite slow inventory reduction in the short term [3] Group 2 - The apple inventory this year is at a lower peak compared to last year, marking the lowest in recent years, while new season apple production and quality have declined [3] - The demand for cold storage apples remains decent, particularly for red apple varieties, with increased shipping speed noted [2] - The impact of seasonal consumption on the inventory of general quality apples and prices is a key factor to monitor [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Southwest Futures indicates that apple prices are expected to run strong, with current cold storage inventory at 7.5298 million tons, a decrease of 55,700 tons from the previous week, and lower than the same period last year [1][1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the new season apple production is approximately 34.2344 million tons, a decrease of 3.1153 million tons from the previous season, with smaller fruit sizes noted [1][1] - The overall assessment suggests that this year's inventory peak is lower than last year, indicating a downward trend in new season apple production and quality, leading to an expectation of strong price performance [1][1] Group 2 - Galaxy Futures predicts that weak demand may dominate the apple market in the short term, with market focus shifting towards January delivery and pre-Spring Festival stocking conditions [1][1] - The January contract is expected to experience high volatility due to delivery cost support, while the May contract may trade under weak demand but is less likely to see significant declines due to low inventory and quality concerns [1][1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether apples stored until May will meet delivery quality requirements, suggesting limited potential for a substantial drop in the May contract [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 4234 yuan, currently reported at 9093.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.27% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotou Anxin Futures emphasizes the importance of monitoring subsequent inventory levels, noting that high-quality apples are maintaining stable prices while low-quality sources are weaker. The market demand is high, but there is a significant proportion of low-quality apples, leading to potential inventory pressure in the future [2] - Zhongcai Futures indicates that apple futures are maintaining a strong oscillation at high levels, driven by favorable weather in major production areas and an increase in the harvest of striped apples. The average price in major regions is currently about 0.6 yuan per jin higher than the same period last year, with expectations of a positive outlook for the market [3] - Guoxin Futures suggests a wait-and-see approach, reporting stable prices for new season apples in Yantai, Shandong, with various price ranges depending on quality. The focus remains on the performance of new season apple inventories [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline this week with a slight rebound. With the inventory at a five - year low, the supply and demand situation is complex. The current apple is in the off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, and the downstream demand is under pressure. Although the export performance was good in the first quarter, the export volume may slow down. Short - term operation suggests waiting and seeing [8][35] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline with a slight rebound [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the total remaining amount of apples in national cold storage was 1.6582 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold - storage remaining amount in Shandong was 951,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 447,200 tons. Shaanxi storage merchants generally had a strong reluctance to sell and asked for high prices, while Shandong storage merchants were more willing to ship [13][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory and Sales**: As of May 15, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 12.55%, a 1.92 - percentage - point decline from the previous period and a 9.82 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The destocking rate was 80.27%. The apple is in the sales off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, the downstream demand is impacted, the enthusiasm of merchants for high - price purchases has declined, the e - commerce platform sales volume has decreased, and the shipping speed in the production area has slowed down [18][35] - **Export**: In March 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,100 tons, a 40.82% increase from the previous month and a 1.71% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to March was about 255,600 tons, a 9.53% increase year - on - year. However, as the price of origin goods rises, the profit margin of traders is compressed, and the export volume may slow down [20] - **Substitute Fruit Price**: Not provided - **Origin Spot Price**: As of May 16, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of different grades of apples varied, but the high labor price, low packaging volume, and reduced cold - storage trading volume [31]