大幅拉涨，关注节日备货情况 ——国信期货苹果周报 2026年1月9日 研究所 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 苹果期货主力合约AP2605大幅拉涨，周度涨幅达到6.24%。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2026年1月8日，全国冷库苹果库存量为673.37万吨，冷库库存比例约为51.13%，较去年同期（20250109 ）低4.92个百分点。库存量处于历史偏低位置，为苹果价格提供一定支撑。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：冷库出货量逐渐增加 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2026年1月9日，全国冷库库容比下降2.18个百分点，去库存率8.48%。其中，山东地区冷库库容比为52.54% ，两周冷库库容比 ...

1月5日盘中，苹果期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9499.00元。截止发稿，苹果主力合约 报9492.00元，涨幅3.61%。 苹果期货主力涨超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 国信期货 预计苹果行情区间内宽幅震荡为主 格林大华期货 苹果期价大概率维持高位区间震荡 西南期货 预计中长期苹果价格偏强运行 国信期货：预计苹果行情区间内宽幅震荡为主 节日期间，山东地区苹果价格平稳，冷库货源中片红货需求尚可，近期客商采购以片红为主，出货速度 提高。冷库苹果供应较为充足，出库以低质量货源为主。春节备货开启，关注节日备货情况。多空力量 博弈，预计行情区间内宽幅震荡为主，操作建议区间内高抛低吸为主。 格林大华期货：苹果期价大概率维持高位区间震荡 苹果产区交易整体略显沉闷，其中甘肃产区交易尚可，尤其是陇南礼县产区库存货源消化较好。山东、 陕西、山西整体交易依旧略显冷淡，元旦前后冷库中包装发货现象不多，交易迟缓；节中主产地降雪， 苹果运输阻碍加大拖累客商备库节奏；综合来看，需关注旺季消费对一般质量货源去库进度及价格的影 响，当前期价走一般货消费逻辑，但长期来看，库存低位及优果率偏低的结构性 ...

西南期货：预计苹果价格偏强运行 截至2025年12月17日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为752.98万吨，环比上周减少5.57万吨，走货不及去 年同期。12月17日，山东栖霞产区晚富士出库不快，果脯及小果价格较前期有所松动，奶油富士、维纳 斯少量按需出库，80#以上奶油富士带袋子1.8-2.0元/斤，晚富士栖霞80#一二级片红果农货源意向成交 价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#-70#小果1.7-2元/斤。卓创资讯（301299）调研数据显示，新季苹果产量约为 3423.44万吨，较上一产季减少311.53万吨，且果径偏小。综合来看，本年度库存高点比去年低，处于近 几年最低库存，新季苹果产量、质量出现下滑，预计价格偏强运行。 12月19日盘中，苹果期货主力合约高位震荡，最高上探至9200.00元。截止收盘，苹果主力合约报 9199.00元，涨幅1.83%。 苹果期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 西南期货 预计苹果价格偏强运行 银河期货 苹果短期内弱需求可能会主导行情 银河期货：苹果短期内弱需求可能会主导行情 苹果短期内弱需求可能会主导行情，未来一段时间市场将会将关注点转向1月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 4234 yuan, currently reported at 9093.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.27% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotou Anxin Futures emphasizes the importance of monitoring subsequent inventory levels, noting that high-quality apples are maintaining stable prices while low-quality sources are weaker. The market demand is high, but there is a significant proportion of low-quality apples, leading to potential inventory pressure in the future [2] - Zhongcai Futures indicates that apple futures are maintaining a strong oscillation at high levels, driven by favorable weather in major production areas and an increase in the harvest of striped apples. The average price in major regions is currently about 0.6 yuan per jin higher than the same period last year, with expectations of a positive outlook for the market [3] - Guoxin Futures suggests a wait-and-see approach, reporting stable prices for new season apples in Yantai, Shandong, with various price ranges depending on quality. The focus remains on the performance of new season apple inventories [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline this week with a slight rebound. With the inventory at a five - year low, the supply and demand situation is complex. The current apple is in the off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, and the downstream demand is under pressure. Although the export performance was good in the first quarter, the export volume may slow down. Short - term operation suggests waiting and seeing [8][35] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline with a slight rebound [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the total remaining amount of apples in national cold storage was 1.6582 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold - storage remaining amount in Shandong was 951,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 447,200 tons. Shaanxi storage merchants generally had a strong reluctance to sell and asked for high prices, while Shandong storage merchants were more willing to ship [13][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory and Sales**: As of May 15, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 12.55%, a 1.92 - percentage - point decline from the previous period and a 9.82 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The destocking rate was 80.27%. The apple is in the sales off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, the downstream demand is impacted, the enthusiasm of merchants for high - price purchases has declined, the e - commerce platform sales volume has decreased, and the shipping speed in the production area has slowed down [18][35] - **Export**: In March 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,100 tons, a 40.82% increase from the previous month and a 1.71% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to March was about 255,600 tons, a 9.53% increase year - on - year. However, as the price of origin goods rises, the profit margin of traders is compressed, and the export volume may slow down [20] - **Substitute Fruit Price**: Not provided - **Origin Spot Price**: As of May 16, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of different grades of apples varied, but the high labor price, low packaging volume, and reduced cold - storage trading volume [31]