作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 2026 一开年，上证指数已然站上 4100 点。 与此同时，白酒行业却持续不振。 最近，口子窖还发布了白酒行业第一份 2025 年业绩预减报告。 预计 2025 年口子窖归母净利润为 6.62 亿元至 8.28 亿元，同比下滑 50% 至 60% ，而 2024 年，口子窖净利润为 16.55 亿元。 这样一份业绩预减报告的背后，是去年全年，白酒板块整体下跌近 15% ，"茅五泸洋汾"，几乎全部跌下神坛。 新的一年，持续惨烈的局面之下，贵州茅台展开了前所未有的重大改变， 500 毫升 53 度飞天茅台正式上线" i 茅台"。 在行业龙头史无前例的 "自救行为"之外，各大机构也纷纷在研报中表示， 2026 年，白酒行业有望出清改善。 但，事情却并非容易。 01 茅台的这一重大改革，从去年年底的茅台酒全国经销商联谊会上，就可一见端倪。 彼时，茅台新任董事长陈华表示，茅台 2026 年不再使用分销方式。 而在联谊会结束仅仅 3 天之后，在茅台的直销体系里，就出现了非标品。 自 " i 茅台"从 2022 年 5 月上线以来，小程序上投 ...

01 宏观与金融 （一）回顾 1、2026年国补方案正式发布 12月30日，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通 知》，同时下达首批625亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。2026年国补对象新增智能眼镜、智能家居 等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。购买新车按车价补贴12%或10%，补贴上限仍延续 2025年标准。家电国补范围缩小，限定为冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产品， 一级能效家电补贴比例从此前20%降至15%，每件家电补贴最高额度从2000元降至1500元。 2、中国将成为首个为央行数字货币计息的经济体 中国人民银行出台数字人民币行动方案，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体 系将于2026年1月1日正式启动实施。届时，数字人民币钱包余额将按照活期存款计付利息，数字人 民币将从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。 3、存量"公积金+商贷"利率1月1日起同步下调 根据央行相关通知，对于2025年5月8日以前已经发放的公积金贷款，自2026年1月1日开始，首套 房 5 年 以 下 利 率 降 至 2.1% ， 5 年 以 上 降 ...

2026年1月4日，白酒市场迎来一记反常信号：一边是"i茅台"APP连续四天1499元官方放货"秒空"，抢购页面刷新即无；另一边，53度500毫升飞天茅台2025 年份的批发价却再度跌破1499元大关，报至约1390元/瓶，一周内跌幅超百元。官方渠道一酒难求，批发市场却价格倒挂——这场看似矛盾的行情，正揭开 茅台神话背后的供需裂变。 这场价格倒挂，或许是茅台主动去泡沫化的阵痛，也可能是行业拐点的前兆。对普通消费者而言，1499元喝到真茅台的机会确实在增加；但对依赖价差生存 的渠道商而言，黄金时代或许真的结束了。 过去，"1499元指导价、3000元市场价"是飞天茅台的常态，黄牛囤货、宴席刚需、投资属性共同托起高溢价。但如今，随着"i茅台"持续加大直营投放，每 日数万瓶以原价直达消费者，中间商囤货空间被急剧压缩。业内分析指出，近期放量基本被真实饮用需求消化，而非投机囤积，这虽提升了茅台集团的营收 透明度与利润，却也动摇了经销商赖以生存的价格红利。 飞天仍在，只是不再"飞"得那么高了。 更深层的变化在于消费风向转变。高端宴请减少、反腐持续深化、年轻群体饮酒意愿下降，叠加经济预期谨慎，令"硬通货"茅台的金融属性大幅 ...

在"i茅台"连续数日以1499元价格放货之后，53度500毫升飞天茅台的批发价再次进入下行通道。多个第 三方报价平台数据显示，今日（1月4日）2025年飞天茅台批发价再次跌破1499元/瓶，比一周前累计下 跌约100元/瓶。业内认为，"i茅台"放货基本被市场真实需求所消化，这也能够有效提高茅台收入，但对 行业的长期影响还需观望。 新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 ...

【中国白酒网】1月4日电，在"i茅台"连续数日以1499元价格放货之后，53度500毫升飞天茅台的批 发价再次进入下行通道。多个第三方报价平台数据显示，今日（1月4日）2025年飞天茅台批发价再次跌 破1499元/瓶，比一周前累计下跌约100元/瓶。业内认为，"i茅台"放货基本被市场真实需求所消化，这 也能够有效提高茅台收入，但对行业的长期影响还需观望。 "i茅台"连续4天秒空 茅台批发价再度跌破1499元 ...

批发价跌破1499元/瓶 2026.01. 03 本文字数：1667，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 栾立 封图 | 第一财经记者 任玉明摄 在"i茅台"连续数日以1499元价格放货之后，53度500毫升飞天茅台的批发价再次进入下行通道。多个第 三方报价平台数据显示，今日（1月4日）2025年飞天茅台批发价再次跌破1499元/瓶，比一周前累计下 跌约100元/瓶。 业内认为，"i茅台"放货基本被市场真实需求所消化，这也能够有效提高茅台收入，但对行业的长期影响还 需观望。 北京市民张寒告诉记者，自己也抢了几天的平价茅台，主要是年末自身有礼赠需求，过去购买茅台主要是 通过酒商加价购买，每次都有保真方面的担忧，因此此次想从官方渠道购买平价茅台。 但也有酒商认为，3天超过10万单的热度惊人，但按照目前的市场行情，酒水消费整体疲软，这未必反映 了真实的消费需求，相信其中还是有不少抱着投机心态的人在抢购。 "i茅台"客服告诉记者，每日1499元飞天茅台放货的具体数字不便于公布，但为了避免炒作，"i茅台"的发 售数量是根据市场情况动态调整。 2026年1月1日起，"i茅台"正式上线1499元的飞天茅台，遭到市场疯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Douyin has initiated a special governance action against false advertising and irregular marketing practices related to Moutai, leading to the removal of many unauthorized stores selling Moutai at low prices [2][3][13]. Group 1: Douyin's Actions - Douyin has responded to rumors about penalties for selling Moutai below market price, clarifying that these claims are misinterpretations [3]. - The platform has launched a special governance action targeting false advertising and irregular marketing practices, particularly those using "false low prices" to attract customers [3][13]. - As part of this initiative, Douyin has already dealt with over 2,000 irregular products and 690 violating merchants in the past three months [13]. Group 2: Market Impact - The price of 53-degree Moutai has become a focal point, with many stores previously listing it at 1499 yuan per bottle now showing as suspended or removed [1][11]. - Following the governance actions, the price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai has increased, with current listings generally above 1750 yuan per bottle, compared to lower prices during the "Double 11" shopping festival [11][15]. - The wholesale reference price for Moutai has seen fluctuations, dropping to 1855 yuan per bottle earlier this year but recovering to 1655 yuan as of November 17 [16][17]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - Industry experts suggest that the platform's control over low-price marketing will likely lead to a price recovery for major products like Moutai and Wuliangye [14]. - Moutai's management is actively working with various online platforms to combat counterfeit products and maintain market order [16]. - The recent actions by Moutai and other liquor companies are viewed as a "channel defense war" aimed at stabilizing pricing structures and protecting brand integrity [16].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing slowdown in domestic market sales and intensified competition have prompted Chinese liquor companies to focus on international expansion, with a notable trend of liquor returning to the domestic market as well [1][2]. Group 1: International Expansion of Chinese Liquor - Since 2024, major Chinese liquor companies have increased their investments in international markets, with brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao actively participating in international events and marketing activities in regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America [3]. - As of the first half of 2025, 63.9% of liquor companies have either established or are expanding their overseas markets, with the Asia-Pacific region being the primary destination [3]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's liquor export volume and value both increased, with an export value of $400 million, up 8.4% year-on-year, and an export volume of 6.84 million liters, up 5.7% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Liquor Reflow to Domestic Market - A significant amount of liquor is returning to China, with the country being the largest source of imported spirits, accounting for $160 million in imports, a 56.6% increase year-on-year, and 893,000 liters, a 64.4% increase year-on-year [5]. - The average import price of these returning liquors is $174 per liter, significantly higher than the $12 per liter for British spirits [7]. - The reflow of liquor is attributed to various factors, including the lack of effective overseas market penetration by Chinese companies and the potential for profit despite the multiple layers of taxes incurred during the import process [11][14]. Group 3: Challenges in Internationalization - The primary challenges faced by liquor companies in international markets include cultural differences (82.9%), brand influence (68.6%), and tariffs and trade barriers (60.0%) [17]. - Although some companies have achieved success through localized operations, significant time and effort are still required for market penetration and brand recognition [18]. - The unique characteristics of Chinese liquor, including its consumption habits and cultural significance, pose additional challenges in appealing to foreign consumers [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of Chinese liquor, particularly Baijiu, is a complex process that requires patience and strategic planning, as domestic market challenges drive companies to explore overseas opportunities while facing simultaneous trends of liquor re-importation [1][9]. Group 1: International Expansion - Starting in 2024, major Chinese liquor companies are intensifying their efforts in international markets, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye actively participating in international events and marketing campaigns across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America [2][9]. - By mid-2025, 63.9% of Baijiu companies are reported to have established or are in the process of expanding into overseas markets, with the Asia-Pacific region being the primary target [2][9]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's Baijiu exports reached $400 million, marking an 8.4% year-on-year increase, with export volume growing by 5.7% to 6.84 million liters [2]. Group 2: Liquor Re-importation - A significant amount of Baijiu is returning to China, with the country being the largest source of imported spirits, accounting for $160 million in imports, a 56.6% increase year-on-year, and 893,000 liters, up 64.4% [3][4]. - The average import price of these returning Baijiu is $174 per liter, significantly higher than the average price of British spirits at $12 per liter [3][4]. - The phenomenon of re-importation is attributed to the complexities of international trade, including high taxes and the involvement of intermediaries, leading to price discrepancies that favor overseas versions of Baijiu in the domestic market [4][7]. Group 3: Challenges in Internationalization - Major challenges for Baijiu companies in international markets include cultural differences (82.9%), brand influence (68.6%), and trade barriers (60.0%), as highlighted in a report by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association [9]. - Despite some successes through localized operations, the overall internationalization of Baijiu remains a long-term endeavor, requiring adaptation to foreign consumer preferences and effective communication of its cultural significance [9][10]. - The market share of Chinese Baijiu in regions like the UAE is still minimal, with local consumers often finding the taste too strong initially, indicating a need for product innovation to cater to international palates [10].

Core Insights - The Chinese beverage market is witnessing a contrasting trend where premium beer sales are surging while traditional liquor, particularly baijiu, is facing significant sales declines [2][8][12] Beer Industry Trends - The Chinese beer market is undergoing a high-end transformation, with brands like Tsingtao and China Resources Snow Beer launching premium products priced over 1,000 yuan, such as Tsingtao's "Legend of a Century" priced at 1,399 yuan per bottle [2][3] - In Q1 2023, Tsingtao's three premium products sold nearly 200,000 bottles, indicating strong demand despite high prices [3] - The shift from price wars to value wars is evident, with companies increasing product prices by 5%-13% since 2018 and focusing on premium product development [3][4] - The rise of high-end beer is supported by a growing middle-income group willing to pay for quality, with premium products becoming cultural symbols and social currencies [4][6] - The high-end beer segment's sales share increased from 29% in 2015 to 36% in 2019, with projections to reach 41% by 2025, indicating a structural upgrade in the market [7] Baijiu Industry Challenges - The baijiu industry is experiencing unprecedented sales challenges, with some regions seeing year-on-year declines of 40%-50% in 2023 [8][9] - National baijiu production fell by 7.2% in Q1 2023, with over half of the surveyed companies reporting decreased profits and revenues [8][9] - The implementation of strict regulations against high-end alcohol consumption in government settings has exacerbated the sales decline, particularly affecting brands reliant on government purchases [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly turning away from traditional high-proof baijiu, with a 22% decline in consumption frequency among the 25-35 age group [11][12] - The baijiu market is facing high inventory pressures, with total inventory reaching 167.8 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and some brands experiencing significant price drops [11][12] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The beverage market is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by the blurring of category boundaries, with beer and baijiu increasingly competing for the same consumer base [15][16] - The fragmentation of consumption scenarios is leading to a demand for more flexible product forms and packaging, as consumers seek diverse drinking experiences [15][16] - Health consciousness and personalization are becoming key drivers in product development, with low-alcohol and low-calorie options gaining popularity [16] - The market is expected to polarize further, with a clear divide between ultra-premium products and high-value mass-market offerings, necessitating companies to define their market positioning [16][17]