成文日期：20250915 报告周期:周报 十字品种:菜 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 相互用 - The Free 核心观点： 当周（20250908-0912）菜粕期货价格呈现高位震荡态势。菜 粕现货价格震荡上涨，贸易商仍有惜售情绪，下游刚需采购为主。 油厂开机率偏低,压榨菜粕库存下降,市场继续关注后期中加贸易 关系及菜籽原料供应情况。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 当周菜粕期货价格整体呈现震荡态势。截至周五，主力合约菜 粕 2601（rm2601）收盘至 2531 点，最高价 2572 点，最低价 2522 点,持仓 402900 手,较上周增加 6326手,成交量 157.50 万手,较 上周减少 7.45 万手。 1.2 品种行情 菜粕期货周度行情，各合约均有不同涨跌，品种持仓量 658940 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 手，成交量 1972034 手。 图 2:菜粕期货行情表 | 合约代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in the futures market for rapeseed meal contracts is attributed to a combination of high inventory levels and changing supply-demand dynamics, influenced by trade policies and market expectations regarding Canadian canola production [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The near-month rapeseed meal futures have seen a significant decline due to high inventory levels and weak demand, despite previous strong price increases [2]. - As of August 1, port rapeseed meal inventory reached 610,000 tons, significantly higher than the 291,300 tons recorded in the same period last year [2]. - The recent increase in registered warehouse receipts for rapeseed meal is at the highest level for this time of year in a decade, contributing to downward pressure on near-month contract prices [2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The strength in far-month rapeseed meal contracts is supported by low import expectations for canola, the impact of a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and anticipated reductions in Canadian canola production for the 2025/2026 season [3]. - The recent preliminary ruling by the Ministry of Commerce on anti-dumping investigations against Canadian rapeseed will impose a 75.8% deposit rate on imports, further constraining supply and potentially increasing prices [3]. - The market is currently at a crossroads between high inventory levels and weak demand versus strong expectations of reduced production, necessitating close monitoring of USDA reports and market conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Considerations - The potential improvement in trade relations between China and Canada, along with the new season's canola supply, may lead to a weakening of rapeseed meal prices despite current high inventory levels [4]. - The ongoing assessment of canola yield and production in Canada is expected to influence the pricing of rapeseed meal contracts in the coming months [4]. - A decrease in demand from aquaculture may further impact rapeseed meal demand, although overall supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain stable [5].