1.1 合约价格 当周菜粕期货价格整体呈现震荡上行态势。截至周五，主力合 约菜粕 rm2605 收盘至 2391 点．最高价 2404 点，最低价 2309 点， 持仓 650686 手,较上周增加 52198 手,成交量 167.01 万手,较上 周增加 32.18 万手。 图 1：菜粕 2605（rm2605）日线 成文日期：20251229 报告周期:周报 究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 拍期货周报 核心观点: 当周（20251222-1226）菜粕行情震荡上涨。加拿大油菜籽期 货创下九个月来最低水平,后续仍面临压力,产量创纪录,库存高 以及出口需求弱,短期难以趋势性好转。菜粕现货价格上涨。近月 加拿大菜籽以及菜粕进口受限,其现阶段油厂仍停机,菜粕供应偏 紧。不过澳大利亚菜籽陆续到港,远期供应预期增加。同时,豆粕 替代优势良好,削弱菜粕需求预期。菜粕市场处于供需双弱。短期 菜粕维持震荡走势,难有大幅波动。 1 期货市场 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必 ...

郑商所菜粕、菜油期权上市以来，整体运行稳健，交易规模跃升至全球前列，不仅深刻改变了产业的风 险管理逻辑，而且成为提升我国在全球油脂油料市场影响力的重要抓手。 统计数据显示，郑商所菜粕期权日均成交量已从上市首年的约1.45万手增长至去年的19.64万手，市场规 模跻身全球农产品期权前列。菜油期权同样表现亮眼，在2023年成交量实现同比翻番的基础上，2025年 第一季度成交金额同比增长77.26%。 在价格剧烈波动的市场环境中，期权工具的独特价值经受住了考验，并在实践中大放异彩。2025年，菜 系市场成为期权功能发挥的"试金石"。 建发物产有限公司创新衍生品部经理杨卓向期货日报记者分享了今年3月的实践案例。当时我国针对原 产于加拿大的菜系产品加征关税，菜粕价格应声上涨。"在市场波动中，若买入看跌期权进行套保，相 较于传统的期货空头套保，能够大幅减少因期货价格上涨而产生的亏损。"他表示，尽管买入期权会产 生一定的权利金成本，但在面对极端行情时，这一成本可以转化为避免巨额损失的"保险"，保障了企业 经营的稳定性。 "买入期权风险可控，且没有追加保证金的压力，让企业经营规划更加稳定。"物产中大化工集团农产品 交易部经理 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Volatility Spread - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - There are charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including stock - index options (300 index, 1000 index, 50ETF, 500ETF), precious metals (silver, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton), energy and chemicals (PTA, methanol, rubber), base metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, PVC), and others (urea, rapeseed meal, palm oil) [3][5] Group 3: Quantile Ranking of Volatility Index and Volatility Spread - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low [6] - The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [6] - There are rankings of historical volatility quantiles and implied volatility quantiles for different varieties such as 300 index, 50ETF, PTA, etc. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday until the daytime closing on Friday, the trading volume of commodity options decreased, and implied volatility (IV) almost declined across the board. On Friday night, macro - information increased market panic, and it is expected that IV will rise significantly in the short term. There are many end - of - life game opportunities for option buyers of expiring options on Monday (bottle chips, rapeseed meal, PTA, caustic soda, rapeseed oil, cotton, short - fiber, soda ash, methanol, glass, and sugar near - month contracts) and Wednesday (crude oil near - month contract). Attention should be paid to the risks of rising volatility and being exercised [4]. - Agricultural products are relatively less affected. Beans may have price - rising opportunities due to import constraints, and the IV of corresponding bean options is relatively low, which can be observed as long - term option - buying layout varieties, and call options can be bought at an appropriate time [4]. - Under the weak fundamental and macro - environment of some non - ferrous and new - energy varieties, more call options can be sold to obtain income, and put options can be bought for directional trading or hedging [4]. - For varieties with strong fundamentals, volatility can be observed, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold at low prices and high volatility to gradually build long positions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The overall trading volume of the commodity option market this week was 6,438,734, a decrease of 0.11% from last week, and the open interest was 9,557,880, an increase of 0.17% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products was 1,599,862.75, an increase of 0.39% from last week; the trading volume of energy and chemical products was 2,661,095.25, a decrease of 0.01% from last week; the trading volume of black metals was 401,971.5, a decrease of 0.46% from last week; the trading volume of precious metals was 604,400.75, a decrease of 1.48% from last week; the trading volume of non - ferrous and new - energy varieties was 1,171,403.75, an increase of 0.3% from last week [7]. 3.2 Corn Options - The closing price of the main contract c2511 was 2125, down 53, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 124,100, an increase of 13,703 from last week, and the open interest was 383,371, an increase of 15,154 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 10.62 to 9.82 [15]. 3.3 Soybean Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract m2511 was 2900, down 5, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 294,614, a decrease of 78,523 from last week, and the open interest was 1,033,413, an increase of 29,869 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.24 to 11.67 [16]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract rm2511 was 2458, up 2, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 125,135, an increase of 11,621 from last week, and the open interest was 188,419, an increase of 14,047 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 29.68 to 23.0 [17]. 3.5 Palm Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract p2511 was 9320, up 146, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 137,584, a decrease of 13,943 from last week, and the open interest was 159,813, an increase of 22,108 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 20.56 to 16.64 [18]. 3.6 Soybean Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract y2511 was 8308, up 138, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 50,526, a decrease of 2,659 from last week, and the open interest was 110,669, a decrease of 6,590 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.57 to 11.76 [20]. 3.7 Rapeseed Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract oi2511 was 10232, down 99, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 78,760, an increase of 1,466 from last week, and the open interest was 117,792, an increase of 6,435 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 24.53 to 14.4 [21]. 3.8 Peanut Options - The closing price of the main contract pk2511 was 7786, down 12. The total trading volume this week was 143,362, an increase of 111,981 from last week, and the open interest was 126,256, an increase of 47,710 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased slightly from 14.53 to 14.38 [22]. 3.9 Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options - The closing price of the main contract a2511 was 3953, up 18, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 40,498, a decrease of 6,520 from last week, and the open interest was 95,611, a decrease of 2,971 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.43 to 9.58 [23]. 3.10 Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options - The closing price of the main contract b2511 was 3617, up 8, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,607, a decrease of 4,560 from last week, and the open interest was 49,036, an increase of 12,990 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 16.0 to 10.45 [24]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol Options - The closing price of the main contract eg2511 was 4127, down 82, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 18,246, an increase of 9,615 from last week, and the open interest was 38,874, an increase of 10,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.22 to 11.61 [25]. 3.12 Styrene Options - The closing price of the main contract eb2511 was 6743, down 206, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 104,692, an increase of 25,779 from last week, and the open interest was 99,287, an increase of 25,520 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 17.99 to 16.16 [26]. 3.13 Sugar Options - The closing price of the main contract sr2511 was 5518, up 11, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 91,045, a decrease of 6,956 from last week, and the open interest was 300,087, an increase of 6,975 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 12.39 to 10.39 [27]. 3.14 Cotton Options - The closing price of the main contract cf2601 was 13325, down 80, with 44 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 214,938, an increase of 78,620 from last week, and the open interest was 490,224, an increase of 77,596 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.62 to 9.57 [28]. 3.15 PTA Options - The closing price of the main contract ta2511 was 4510, down 114, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 385,737, an increase of 144,364 from last week, and the open interest was 335,302, an increase of 74,644 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 23.02 to 16.2 [29]. 3.16 PX Options - The closing price of the main contract px2512 was 6490, down 150, with 13 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 16,658, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 23,469, an increase of 15,242 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 18.02 to 16.26 [30]. 3.17 Caustic Soda Options - The closing price of the main contract sh2511 was 2420, down 63. The total trading volume this week was 143,556, an increase of 50,630 from last week, and the open interest was 106,911, an increase of 21,096 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 31.88 to 21.11 [31]. 3.18 Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract ru2601 was 15315, down 155, with 54 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 12,402, a decrease of 22,076 from last week, and the open interest was 42,424, an increase of 4,193 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 19.89 to 18.73 [32]. 3.19 BR Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract br2511 was 11220, down 210, with 11 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 22,220, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 17,469, an increase of 3,604 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 25.7 to 21.92 [33]. 3.20 Polyethylene Options - The closing price of the main contract (assumed) was 7019, down 80, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 24,028, an increase of 1,486 from last week, and the open interest was 56,346, an increase of 7,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.89 to 8.74 [34]. 3.21 Polypropylene Options - The closing price of the main contract pp2511 was 6651, down 166, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,271, an increase of 2,961 from last week, and the open interest was 98,340, an increase of 20,257 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.64 to 9.42 [35]. 3.22 Methanol Options - The closing price of the main contract ma2511 was 2255, down 39. The total trading volume this week was 208,323, an increase of 68,535 from last week, and the open interest was 285,762, an increase of 48,102 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.19 to 13.4 [36]. 3.23 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options - The closing price of the main contract pg2511 was 4070, down 220, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 42,903, a slight decrease from last week, and the open interest was 42,637, an increase of 18,342 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.43 to 16.38 [37]. 3.24 PVC Options - The closing price of the main contract v2511 was 4652, down 160, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 102,281, an increase of 18,834 from last week, and the open interest was 253,204, an increase of 55,006 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.1 to 12.75 [38]. 3.25 Crude Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract sc2511 was 461.9, down 29.4, with 3 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 72,598, an increase of 32,140 from last week, and the open interest was 45,021, an increase of 18,972 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 41.12 to 29.34 [39]. 3.26 Iron Ore Options - The closing price of the main contract i2511 was 811.5, up 7.0, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 130,400, an increase of 7,948 from last week, and the open interest was 267,334, an increase of 36,386 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 22.03 to 17.36 [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the week of 20250908 - 0912, rapeseed meal futures prices showed a high - level oscillating trend, while spot prices oscillated upward. Traders were still reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The oil mill operation rate was low, and the inventory of pressed rapeseed meal decreased. The market continued to focus on the future China - Canada trade relationship and the supply of rapeseed raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The rapeseed meal futures prices oscillated throughout the week. By Friday, the main contract, rapeseed meal 2601 (rm2601), closed at 2531 points, with a maximum of 2572 points and a minimum of 2522 points. The position was 402,900 lots, an increase of 6326 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume was 1.575 million lots, a decrease of 74,500 lots from the previous week [3]. - **Variety Market**: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, each contract had different price movements. The total position of the variety was 658,940 lots, and the trading volume was 1,972,034 lots [4][6]. - **Related Market**: The rapeseed meal options had a trading volume of 268,227 lots and a total position of 147,556 lots during the week, with an increase of 11,577 lots in the position. The total number of exercised options was 0 [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Condition**: Rapeseed meal spot prices rose slightly during the week, remaining stable with an upward trend. The market supply was relatively stable, and demand was also steady. The benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2638.33 yuan/ton on September 8 and 2665.00 yuan/ton on September 12 [9]. - **Basis Data**: The rapeseed meal basis showed a strengthening trend during the week, mainly due to relatively stable market supply and demand, which provided some support for spot prices. The basis price of the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract fluctuated between 96.33 yuan/ton and 134 yuan/ton [10]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 10,383, with a cumulative increase of 3622 during the week [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The peak season for aquaculture in September had not completely ended, so there was still some demand for rapeseed meal. However, as the season changed, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture gradually decreased. In addition, due to the weakening price difference between rapeseed meal and soybean meal, the cost - effectiveness advantage of rapeseed meal diminished, and some downstream enterprises might reduce their rapeseed meal purchases and switch to soybean meal [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The rapeseed meal rm2601 contract oscillated during the week. It rose at the beginning of the week, then maintained a high - level oscillation, and the price declined on Friday, indicating a fierce game between long and short forces in the market. The 5 - day moving average began to turn downward, suggesting a short - term weakening of the price. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average for the price [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook With the listing and supply of new - season rapeseed and the possibility of improved trade relations between China, Canada, and Australia, rapeseed meal prices may face certain pressure. However, since the subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is expected to decline, the overall supply - demand relationship in the rapeseed meal market is expected to change little. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed meal rm2601 futures contract may continue to oscillate at a high level [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, it is necessary to closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 8, 2025, the rm2601 contract of rapeseed meal futures opened higher and fluctuated and adjusted, rising 0.24% from the previous day to close at 2542 points. The full - day trading volume was 371,400 lots, and the open interest was 393,500 lots [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - All contracts of rapeseed meal futures had different price changes throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 491,406 lots, an increase of 1,810 lots from the previous trading day [4] 1.3 Related Quotes - The total trading volume of rapeseed meal options throughout the day was 77,516 lots, the total open interest was 140,720 lots, with an increase of 4,741 lots in open interest, and the total number of exercises on the day was 0 lots [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 8, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2,638.33 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed meal was 96.33 yuan/ton [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the newly registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal increased by 3,642 compared with the previous trading day, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,403 [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - China's imports of rapeseed and its products are highly dependent on Canada. From March to August 2025, China imposed anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed, resulting in a decrease in imports. The shortage of raw materials for coastal oil mills led to a sharp year - on - year decline in the production of rapeseed meal from Canadian rapeseed crushing, and there was also a significant decline in the import market, which supported the price of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal is mainly used in aquaculture feed production. As the temperature gradually drops in September, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture will gradually decline, but it is still in the peak season of aquaculture, with a certain rigid demand for rapeseed meal [11] 3.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, the price of rapeseed meal futures showed a fluctuating trend on the day, and the price fluctuated between the 5 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average throughout the day. The high point position above and the 20 - day moving average suppressed the price. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through effectively [12] 4. Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal market is at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - During the week of 20250901 - 0905, rapeseed meal prices showed a volatile upward trend. ICE canola futures hit a five - month low due to abundant harvest expectations and demand concerns. The market is focused on the new - season canola production forecast and export prospects in the producing areas. Rapeseed meal spot quotes rose slightly, and traders still had a price - holding mentality. However, the supply of rapeseed meal is loose, and it is expected to continue the volatile trend. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The rapeseed meal futures price showed a volatile trend during the week. As of Friday, the main contract rapeseed meal 2601 (rm2601) closed at 2550 points, with a maximum of 2556 points and a minimum of 2488 points. The position was 396,574 lots, a decrease of 17,596 lots from last week, and the trading volume was 1.6495 million lots, a decrease of 225,100 lots from last week. [3] - **Variety Market**: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, each contract had different price changes. The total position of the variety was 646,488 lots, and the trading volume was 2,030,963 lots. [5] - **Related Market**: Rapeseed meal options had a trading volume of 253,751 lots and a total position of 135,979 lots during the week, with an increase of 6,254 lots in the position. The total number of exercises during the week was 0 lots. [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: During the week, the rapeseed meal spot price showed an overall upward trend. The expected reduction in supply and the seasonal growth in demand were the main factors driving the price increase. The futures market's upward expectation also had a positive impact on the spot price. The rapeseed meal benchmark price was 2601.67 yuan/ton on September 1 and 2638.33 yuan/ton on September 5. [9] - **Basis Data**: The rapeseed meal basis showed a strengthening trend during the week, mainly affected by the strong demand in the spot market, the expected tight supply, and the upward trend in the futures market. The basis price of the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract fluctuated between 88.33 yuan/ton and 123.33 yuan/ton. [10] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 6761, with a cumulative increase of 351 during the week. [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The policy of the Ministry of Commerce imposing high tariffs on Canadian canola has had a profound impact on the rapeseed meal market. This policy not only restricts the import of Canadian canola but also leads to a shortage of domestic canola supply, thereby driving up the rapeseed meal price. In early September, the overall domestic rapeseed meal supply was in a loose state but there was an expectation of tightening in the long - term. On the one hand, the crushing rhythm of coastal oil mills slowed down, and the supply of canola raw materials decreased relatively. On the other hand, although the rapeseed meal inventory has recovered, the overall inventory level is still at a low level. In September, aquaculture is in the peak season, and rapeseed meal, as an important component of aquaculture feed, has a seasonal increase in demand, which supports the rapeseed meal price to a certain extent and promotes its increase. [12] - **Technical Analysis**: During the week, the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract showed an overall volatile upward trend. The K - line pattern closed with 4 positive days during the week, indicating strong long - side power in the market. The price successively broke through the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages. As of Friday, the closing price stood above the 20 - day moving average, and the short - term moving average system was in a long - side arrangement. Attention should be paid to the pressure formed by the previous price high. [13][14] 3.4 Market Outlook - Overall, the price of the rapeseed meal futures rm2601 contract showed an upward trend during the week. The K - line pattern and technical indicators both showed that the market was in a long - side trend. In the short term, market sentiment is optimistic, and capital is flowing in. The future price is expected to show a volatile and strengthening trend. Attention should be paid to the possible callback risk in the market and the impact of external factors such as the US soybean market and the domestic oil mill crushing volume on the rapeseed meal futures price. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors. In the energy and chemical sector, the trading volume of p-xylene at the end of its option cycle significantly boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. Given the pressure in the futures market, using options to capture trading opportunities is relatively safe. [5] - Due to the impact of interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In the agricultural products sector, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors last week. The end-of-cycle trading volume of p-xylene in the energy and chemical sector boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. The futures market still faced pressure, and using options to capture trading opportunities was relatively safe. [5] - Affected by interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In agricultural products, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - Provided the quantitative data of commodity options, including the volatility, 60-day quantile, skewness, and 60-day quantile of various commodities such as corn, soybean meal, and palm oil [13]. 2.2 - 2.55 Individual Option Market Data - Detailed market data for various options were presented, including contract information, trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility, and skewness. For example, in the corn option market, the trading volume and open interest of call and put options, as well as their changes compared to the previous week, were provided [14][15][16].

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Its Calculation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two strike - prices above and below the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graph - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. The volatility spread is calculated as the IV index minus the historical volatility [4] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are provided for different options, such as 50ETF with a quantile of 0.79, 300 - stock index with 0.80, iron ore with 0.37, PVC with 0.46, etc [5][7]