成文日期：20260105 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:菜粕 研究员：陈博（从业资格号：F03138462; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022938) 相关目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 2026 年 1 月 5 日，郑州商品交易所菜粕期货主力合约 (RM.CZC)开盘价 2354.0 元/吨，最高价 2382.0 元/吨，最低价 2350.0 元/吨，收盘价 2361.0 元/吨,较前一交易日下跌 0.8%。当 日成交量 271120 手，持仓量 644700 手，成交额 64.1268 亿元。 图 1：菜粕主力合约分时图 20260105 2 现货市场 2026 年 1 月 5 日南通菜粕现货价格为 2440.0 元/吨,期货收盘 价 2361.0元/吨,基差为 79元/吨(现货价格-期货价格),现货升水期 3.1 产业资讯 供应面：澳大利亚菜籽通关缓慢，国内油厂开机率为零，沿海 油厂菜系库存维持低位、市场供应紧张对价格形成支撑。 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源:同花顺期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral. The basis is 115, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, the spot was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly. The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [13][18][23]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data analysis other than the information that the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Rapeseed Meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The price of rapeseed meal has rebounded after reaching the bottom, influenced by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventories support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal is gradually increasing. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, oil - mill inventories are not under immediate pressure. The short - term price will return to range - bound trading. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but since there is no additional tariff on rapeseed imports, the positive impact may be limited [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is emerging from the off - season, with tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market. Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the result yet to be determined. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production is offset by the increase in Russia's production, there is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Positive factors**: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. - **Negative factors**: An increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot price and basis**: The spot price is 2420, and the basis is - 89, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is a negative factor. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 36,000 tons, up 148.28% week - on - week from 14,500 tons last week and 20% year - on - year from 30,000 tons in the same period last year, which is a negative factor. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor. - **Aquaculture and related prices**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable. The import volume of rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost has rebounded after reaching the bottom. Oil - mill rapeseed inventory has slightly decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory has returned to a low level. Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has slightly decreased [8][10]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main contract has increased, but the capital has flowed out, which is a positive factor [10]. 3.6 Other Data Summaries - **Trading volume and price data**: The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 30 to May 14 show that the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has oscillated and declined. - **Rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary**: The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from April 30 to May 14 show that the rapeseed meal market has had a narrow - range oscillation, with the spot price following the futures price with small fluctuations, and the basis discount remaining at a relatively high level. - **Rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics**: The warehouse receipt data from April 29 to May 14 shows the changes in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 to 2023 show the supply - demand situation of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal [14][15][17].