Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 5, 2026, the opening price of the main contract (RM.CZC) of rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2354.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2382.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2350.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decline from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 271,120 lots, the open interest was 644,700 lots, and the trading volume was 6.41268 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On January 5, 2026, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2440.0 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton. The basis was 79 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The positive basis reflects the current tight supply in the spot market, supporting the spot price to maintain a premium over the futures price [3][5]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Slow clearance of Australian rapeseed, zero operating rate of domestic oil mills, and low inventory of coastal oil mills in the rapeseed industry lead to tight market supply, which supports prices [6]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises have high finished - product inventory, weak purchasing willingness, mainly replenishing stocks in small orders and purchasing as needed. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness, resulting in mediocre demand [6]. - **Related Markets**: The price of the soybean meal market is stable, and the domestic mainstream reference price of soybean meal is 3105 yuan/ton. The futures market maintains a low - level range - bound oscillation, which restricts the price of rapeseed meal [6]. - **Policy and Trade**: The progress of China - Australia rapeseed procurement policy and changes in China - Canada relations are the focus of the market. The result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is still unclear, increasing market uncertainty [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Technically, the price is above the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal. If the supply shortage persists, the price may remain firm; if the import policy loosens, the supply pressure may be relieved [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral. The basis is 115, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, the spot was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly. The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [13][18][23]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data analysis other than the information that the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Rapeseed Meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The price of rapeseed meal has rebounded after reaching the bottom, influenced by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventories support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal is gradually increasing. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, oil - mill inventories are not under immediate pressure. The short - term price will return to range - bound trading. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but since there is no additional tariff on rapeseed imports, the positive impact may be limited [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is emerging from the off - season, with tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market. Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the result yet to be determined. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production is offset by the increase in Russia's production, there is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Positive factors**: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. - **Negative factors**: An increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot price and basis**: The spot price is 2420, and the basis is - 89, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is a negative factor. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 36,000 tons, up 148.28% week - on - week from 14,500 tons last week and 20% year - on - year from 30,000 tons in the same period last year, which is a negative factor. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor. - **Aquaculture and related prices**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable. The import volume of rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost has rebounded after reaching the bottom. Oil - mill rapeseed inventory has slightly decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory has returned to a low level. Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has slightly decreased [8][10]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main contract has increased, but the capital has flowed out, which is a positive factor [10]. 3.6 Other Data Summaries - **Trading volume and price data**: The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 30 to May 14 show that the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has oscillated and declined. - **Rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary**: The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from April 30 to May 14 show that the rapeseed meal market has had a narrow - range oscillation, with the spot price following the futures price with small fluctuations, and the basis discount remaining at a relatively high level. - **Rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics**: The warehouse receipt data from April 29 to May 14 shows the changes in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 to 2023 show the supply - demand situation of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal [14][15][17].