Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that while Li Ning faces short-term marketing cost pressures, operational efficiency is improving, and there is an expectation for mid-term sales growth to accelerate, leading to a recovery in profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the challenging operating environment of the first half of 2025, the company achieved stable performance, particularly in profit metrics after excluding non-operating impacts [1] - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -16.6%, +12.5%, and +7.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Marketing and Growth Potential - The collaboration with the Chinese Olympic Committee and other resource investments in the second half of the year will incur additional short-term costs, but these are expected to gradually convert into sales drivers [1] - The company maintains a healthy operational foundation and has potential for brand growth acceleration through enhanced marketing efforts [1] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - The reasonable valuation has been adjusted to a range of 21.1-22.3 HKD, corresponding to a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 18-19 times [1] - The rating remains "outperform the market" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan, a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, is attempting to enter the capital market with an IPO, but there are concerns about its high-end positioning and reliance on marketing expenditures [2][3][4]. Financial Overview - Lin Qingxuan's sales and distribution expenses for 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 509 million, 486 million, and 688 million RMB, respectively, accounting for 73.66%, 60.37%, and 56.86% of revenue [11]. - The company reported revenues of 691.15 million, 805.004 million, and 1.209641 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [14]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has heavily invested in marketing, with 1,739 out of 2,043 employees (85.2%) dedicated to sales and marketing roles [15]. - Lin Qingxuan's pricing strategy aligns with its high-end branding, with products priced at 599 RMB for 30ml of camellia oil and 730 RMB for 50g of anti-wrinkle cream [11]. Consumer Concerns - There have been numerous consumer complaints regarding product safety, including allergic reactions and misleading advertising claims [6][10]. - The brand faced regulatory scrutiny for advertising claims that did not match the actual efficacy of its products, resulting in a fine of 21,000 RMB [6]. Research and Development - Lin Qingxuan's R&D expenditures for 2022 to 2024 are 21.12 million, 19.74 million, and 30.40 million RMB, which are significantly lower compared to its marketing expenses [13]. - The R&D expense ratio is relatively low, with rates of 3.06%, 2.45%, and 2.51% for the respective years, indicating a lack of investment in foundational research compared to international competitors [13][15]. IPO and Future Outlook - The upcoming IPO could provide funding for R&D and supply chain upgrades, but there are doubts about whether the company will prioritize these areas over continued marketing expenditures [18]. - Concerns arise from the founder's pre-IPO cash-out of approximately 22 million RMB, raising questions about the long-term vision of the brand [16][18].