国信证券研报称，李宁短期仍存营销费用压力但经营效率正在改善，期待中期销售增长提速带动盈利加 速复苏。2025 上半年公司在具有挑战的经营环境中实现了稳健的业绩表现，尤其剔除非经影响后的利 润表现较好，下半年中国奥委会合作等资源投入短期将产生额外费用，但未来将逐步转化为销售驱 动 力 。 我 们 维 持 盈 利 预 测 ， 预 计 公 司 2025-2027 年 归 母 净 利 润25.1/28.3/30.4 亿元，同 比-16.6%/12.5%/7.7%。看好公司当前健康的运营基础和未来营销发力对品牌增长提速的潜力，上调合 理估值至21.1-22.3 港元，对应 2026 PE18-19x，维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan, a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, is attempting to enter the capital market with an IPO, but there are concerns about its high-end positioning and reliance on marketing expenditures [2][3][4]. Financial Overview - Lin Qingxuan's sales and distribution expenses for 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 509 million, 486 million, and 688 million RMB, respectively, accounting for 73.66%, 60.37%, and 56.86% of revenue [11]. - The company reported revenues of 691.15 million, 805.004 million, and 1.209641 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [14]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has heavily invested in marketing, with 1,739 out of 2,043 employees (85.2%) dedicated to sales and marketing roles [15]. - Lin Qingxuan's pricing strategy aligns with its high-end branding, with products priced at 599 RMB for 30ml of camellia oil and 730 RMB for 50g of anti-wrinkle cream [11]. Consumer Concerns - There have been numerous consumer complaints regarding product safety, including allergic reactions and misleading advertising claims [6][10]. - The brand faced regulatory scrutiny for advertising claims that did not match the actual efficacy of its products, resulting in a fine of 21,000 RMB [6]. Research and Development - Lin Qingxuan's R&D expenditures for 2022 to 2024 are 21.12 million, 19.74 million, and 30.40 million RMB, which are significantly lower compared to its marketing expenses [13]. - The R&D expense ratio is relatively low, with rates of 3.06%, 2.45%, and 2.51% for the respective years, indicating a lack of investment in foundational research compared to international competitors [13][15]. IPO and Future Outlook - The upcoming IPO could provide funding for R&D and supply chain upgrades, but there are doubts about whether the company will prioritize these areas over continued marketing expenditures [18]. - Concerns arise from the founder's pre-IPO cash-out of approximately 22 million RMB, raising questions about the long-term vision of the brand [16][18].