蛋鸡去产能

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供应压力仍存蛋价短期反弹空间或有限
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-05 17:54
● 本报记者 马爽 近期,鸡蛋期现货市场均出现回暖势头。9月5日,鸡蛋期货主力合约收报2964元/500千克,较9月2日盘 中低点累计涨近2%;9月5日,中国农产品批发市场鸡蛋平均价为7.73元/公斤,较9月2日累计上涨 1.84%。 业内人士表示,市场超跌后存在反弹需求,再加上季节性备货需求增加以及空头资金离场等因素,共同 推动蛋价短期反弹。不过,当前蛋鸡养殖仍处于亏损状态,养殖户淘汰老鸡的积极性不高,鸡蛋市场供 应压力依然较大,或限制本轮蛋价反弹高度。 多因素驱动蛋价止跌反弹 近期鸡蛋期货价格止跌反弹。文华财经数据显示,截至9月5日收盘,鸡蛋期货主力合约收报2964元/500 千克,而9月2日盘中最低价为2907元/500千克,区间累计上涨1.96%。 从基本面来看,中信建投期货分析师魏鑫认为,此次鸡蛋期货价格反弹更可能是超跌反弹、季节性备货 需求增加以及空头资金离场等因素共同推动的结果。 与期货市场相比,近期鸡蛋现货市场回暖态势更为显著。以京城"菜篮子"——北京新发地农产品批发市 场信息为例,9月5日,散装鸡蛋平均价为3.95元/斤,8月5日则为3.5元/斤,期间累计上涨12.86%。 从全国鸡蛋市场整 ...
鸡蛋供应压力或有望边际缓解 但存栏基数较大仍将压制蛋价
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 07:15
近几年蛋鸡存栏量逐步攀升,鸡蛋供应基数持续增加,当对外销售路径承压、需求提升不易情况下,压 力则会反向作用于供应内部,引起饲养品种转变、大小码价差缩减等养殖端的破局。 目前来看,养殖单位补栏谨慎,出栏积极性提升,去产能拐点或即将出现,后期供应端对鸡蛋价格的压 力或存缓解可能。但基于供应基数较大,因此预计今年三四季度鸡蛋价格水平仍将低于往年同期。 供应仍处上升周期,鸡蛋市场"量增价减" 根据数据分析,鸡蛋月均价与产蛋鸡存栏量具有中度负相关关系。从2019-2025年产蛋鸡存栏量趋势变 化来看,目前存栏量处在新周期的上升阶段,因此随着鸡蛋供应压力逐步加码,鸡蛋价格震荡走低。截 至8月22日,7月、8月鸡蛋月均价分别为2.89元/斤、3.04元/斤,同比跌幅分别为33.41%、36%。 进入2025年,单斤鸡蛋的饲料成本呈现低位反弹趋势,较去年成本降低1.63%,养殖单位成本压力不 大,但年内鸡蛋价格走低,导致单斤鸡蛋利润多呈亏损状态,即使三季度需求迎来旺季,也仍未扭转养 殖亏损局面,养殖单位亏损周期拉长。 卓创资讯监测显示,截至8月22日单斤鸡蛋月均饲料成本3.04元,环比增幅0.33%,同比增幅1.33%;单 ...
此轮蛋鸡去产能路径的相关思考
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 05:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2013, the egg market has gone through three major cycles, and currently, the egg - chicken farming profit has turned negative again. This year, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit from May to June turned negative, and the loss time is not long enough to drive a large - scale and rapid culling of chickens. Before the farming end completes the substantial capacity reduction, the price is expected to remain at a low level. If the seasonal consumption peak drives the price to rise rapidly, the capacity - reduction process and supply pressure will be postponed [4][5] - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, it was only after the second price low appeared and persisted that the culling age of chickens dropped below 500 days and the capacity was basically cleared. This year, the first price low may appear in early July, and as of June 30, the culling age of chickens was still 508 days. The second price low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the culling age of chickens may remain high. The capacity - reduction process may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Analyzing Egg - Chicken Supply from the Farming Profit Cycle - From 2013 to 2017, due to the epidemic, the egg - chicken inventory decreased and the price increased. Then, driven by high profits, the supply increased and the price fell. In 2017, the industry completed capacity reduction due to the epidemic [4] - From 2017 to 2020, after the supply decreased, the egg price recovered. The African swine fever increased the supply of poultry meat and eggs, and the high - prosperity cycle of eggs was extended. In late 2019, the egg supply pressure emerged and the price dropped [4] - From 2020 to the present, after the capacity reduction, the egg price recovered in 2021. In 2022, the egg price remained at an average level. In 2023, the egg price fluctuated widely. In 2024, the egg price first decreased and then increased, and the capacity expanded. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the egg price has been falling [5] - This year, from May to June, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit turned negative. The average loss per jin of eggs in the second quarter was 0.13 yuan/jin, and the average farming profit from January to June was +0.17 yuan/jin. The short - term loss is not enough to drive large - scale culling [5] 2. Thoughts on the Current Egg - Chicken Capacity - Reduction Path - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, the first low point appeared in early February with a culling age of over 500 days, and the second low point from mid - May to mid - June led to a culling age dropping to a minimum of 446 days and basic capacity clearance [2][7] - This year, the first price low may be in early July. As of June 30, the Guantao egg price was 2.49 yuan/jin, and the culling age was 508 days. According to historical data, a second low and its persistence are needed to drive large - scale culling. However, the second low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the capacity - reduction may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][8] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Focus on the culling rhythm and amplitude of the egg - chicken farming end in the third quarter. If the culling is less than expected, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of contracts in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [10] - Egg - chicken farming enterprises are advised to consider the selling hedging opportunities of relevant contracts in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [10]