● 本报记者 马爽 近期，鸡蛋期现货市场均出现回暖势头。9月5日，鸡蛋期货主力合约收报2964元/500千克，较9月2日盘 中低点累计涨近2%；9月5日，中国农产品批发市场鸡蛋平均价为7.73元/公斤，较9月2日累计上涨 1.84%。 业内人士表示，市场超跌后存在反弹需求，再加上季节性备货需求增加以及空头资金离场等因素，共同 推动蛋价短期反弹。不过，当前蛋鸡养殖仍处于亏损状态，养殖户淘汰老鸡的积极性不高，鸡蛋市场供 应压力依然较大，或限制本轮蛋价反弹高度。 多因素驱动蛋价止跌反弹 近期鸡蛋期货价格止跌反弹。文华财经数据显示，截至9月5日收盘，鸡蛋期货主力合约收报2964元/500 千克，而9月2日盘中最低价为2907元/500千克，区间累计上涨1.96%。 从基本面来看，中信建投期货分析师魏鑫认为，此次鸡蛋期货价格反弹更可能是超跌反弹、季节性备货 需求增加以及空头资金离场等因素共同推动的结果。 与期货市场相比，近期鸡蛋现货市场回暖态势更为显著。以京城"菜篮子"——北京新发地农产品批发市 场信息为例，9月5日，散装鸡蛋平均价为3.95元/斤，8月5日则为3.5元/斤，期间累计上涨12.86%。 从全国鸡蛋市场整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chicken egg supply is on the rise, leading to a decrease in egg prices, with expectations that the supply pressure may ease in the future, but prices are still projected to be lower than in previous years due to a high supply base [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply and Price Dynamics - The average monthly price of eggs has a moderate negative correlation with the number of laying hens, indicating that as the supply increases, prices tend to decrease [1]. - As of August 22, the average monthly prices for July and August were 2.89 yuan per jin and 3.04 yuan per jin, reflecting year-on-year declines of 33.41% and 36% respectively [1]. - The supply of eggs is expected to decrease after August, as the number of older hens suitable for culling is projected to decline, which may reduce the pressure on egg prices [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The prolonged period of losses in egg production is expected to lead to a turning point in capacity, with slight alleviation of supply pressure anticipated [3]. - The average feed cost per jin of eggs as of August 22 was 3.04 yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%, while the profit per jin of eggs was -0.20 yuan, indicating a worsening profitability situation [3]. - Despite the seasonal demand increase in the third quarter, the losses in egg production are expected to continue, leading to a cautious approach in expanding production capacity [3]. Group 3: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The industry is experiencing a gradual increase in the number of laying hens, but the pace of capacity reduction is expected to be slow due to the growth of large-scale enterprises [4]. - The price gap between small and large eggs may begin to correct positively starting in October, potentially supporting the prices of large eggs [4]. - Overall, even with a projected decline in the number of laying hens, the total supply remains high, making it difficult for egg prices to receive substantial support in the latter half of the third quarter [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2013, the egg market has gone through three major cycles, and currently, the egg - chicken farming profit has turned negative again. This year, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit from May to June turned negative, and the loss time is not long enough to drive a large - scale and rapid culling of chickens. Before the farming end completes the substantial capacity reduction, the price is expected to remain at a low level. If the seasonal consumption peak drives the price to rise rapidly, the capacity - reduction process and supply pressure will be postponed [4][5] - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, it was only after the second price low appeared and persisted that the culling age of chickens dropped below 500 days and the capacity was basically cleared. This year, the first price low may appear in early July, and as of June 30, the culling age of chickens was still 508 days. The second price low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the culling age of chickens may remain high. The capacity - reduction process may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Analyzing Egg - Chicken Supply from the Farming Profit Cycle - From 2013 to 2017, due to the epidemic, the egg - chicken inventory decreased and the price increased. Then, driven by high profits, the supply increased and the price fell. In 2017, the industry completed capacity reduction due to the epidemic [4] - From 2017 to 2020, after the supply decreased, the egg price recovered. The African swine fever increased the supply of poultry meat and eggs, and the high - prosperity cycle of eggs was extended. In late 2019, the egg supply pressure emerged and the price dropped [4] - From 2020 to the present, after the capacity reduction, the egg price recovered in 2021. In 2022, the egg price remained at an average level. In 2023, the egg price fluctuated widely. In 2024, the egg price first decreased and then increased, and the capacity expanded. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the egg price has been falling [5] - This year, from May to June, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit turned negative. The average loss per jin of eggs in the second quarter was 0.13 yuan/jin, and the average farming profit from January to June was +0.17 yuan/jin. The short - term loss is not enough to drive large - scale culling [5] 2. Thoughts on the Current Egg - Chicken Capacity - Reduction Path - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, the first low point appeared in early February with a culling age of over 500 days, and the second low point from mid - May to mid - June led to a culling age dropping to a minimum of 446 days and basic capacity clearance [2][7] - This year, the first price low may be in early July. As of June 30, the Guantao egg price was 2.49 yuan/jin, and the culling age was 508 days. According to historical data, a second low and its persistence are needed to drive large - scale culling. However, the second low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the capacity - reduction may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][8] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Focus on the culling rhythm and amplitude of the egg - chicken farming end in the third quarter. If the culling is less than expected, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of contracts in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [10] - Egg - chicken farming enterprises are advised to consider the selling hedging opportunities of relevant contracts in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [10]