投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格小幅下跌，成交表现一般，相应的螺纹钢供需两端均在回升，建筑钢厂生产 积极，产量重回高位，且库存偏高，供应压力增加。与此同时，螺纹需求季节性改善，高频需求指 标持续回升，但仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业并未好转，持续性存疑。总之，供需双增局面下 螺纹基本面并无实质性改善，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是原料强势带来成本支撑，预计螺纹延续 偏弱震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面未改善，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均迎来回升，螺纹产量再度回升并至年内高位，供应压力增加。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求有所改善，但下游未见好转，改善持续性存疑。目前来看，供需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面 并未改善，库存增加，产业矛盾持续累积，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是成本抬升与旺季需求预 期，多空因 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, as industrial contradictions accumulate and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. During the off - season, steel prices are under pressure. With the game between long and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue the shock adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that industrial contradictions accumulate and steel prices are under pressure. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of shock - strong/weak [2]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased. The weekly output of rebar has risen significantly, and the supply pressure has increased. The rebar demand has also improved, but the improvement in off - season demand is of doubtful sustainability. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relative positives are the disturbance of production restriction expectations and the strong boost of coking coal and coke. The steel price is expected to continue the shock adjustment trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a slightly bullish oscillation, and the intraday view is a slightly bearish oscillation. Investors should focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment is bullish and steel prices are oscillating upwards [2]. - The supply and demand of rebar continue to weaken. Production is decreasing due to maintenance and production conversion, while demand is in the seasonal low with weak high - frequency demand indicators. However, low inventory, policy support expectations, and strong raw materials providing cost support are positive factors. Steel prices are expected to remain stable in oscillation, and the implementation of policies should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: slightly bullish oscillation; intraday: slightly bearish oscillation. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being strong market sentiment and oscillating upward steel prices. The calculation of price changes is based on night - session closing prices for products with night sessions and the previous day's closing prices for those without, and the day - session closing prices as the end price. The definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are also provided [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. Production has decreased to a low level due to maintenance and production conversion, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked as the profit per ton of the product is good. Demand continues to decline seasonally, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics and putting pressure on steel prices. The low inventory, policy support expectations, and strong raw materials providing cost support are positive factors. The steel price is expected to remain stable in oscillation, and the implementation of policies should be monitored [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of rebar 2510 are both oscillating, while the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices are oscillating and falling [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The low inventory and strong raw materials bring cost support. Under the game of long and short factors, steel prices continue the oscillating operation trend, and attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the oscillating decline of steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of rebar have weakened. The output of rebar has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level this year. The profit per ton of the variety is good, and the supply is unlikely to continue to decline. The demand for rebar is weak, and high - frequency demand indicators have weakened and are at a low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season demand characteristics remain, and weak demand is likely to put pressure on steel prices. The low inventory and strong raw materials bring cost support, and steel prices continue to oscillate. Policy changes should be focused on [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that both supply and demand are weak, and steel prices are oscillating to find the bottom [2]. - The supply - demand weakness of rebar remains unchanged. Steel mill production is weak, output continues to decline, and inventory is reduced. Demand is equally weak, with weekly apparent demand decreasing and high - frequency transactions being sluggish. The steel price is under pressure, but the low inventory eases the contradiction. During the off - season, rebar will continue to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in steel mill production [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is "oscillation, weak", the medium - term is "oscillation", and the intraday is "oscillation, weak". The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening of both supply and demand and the steel price oscillating to find the bottom [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of rebar is weak. Steel production by construction steel mills is weakening, rebar output is continuously decreasing, and inventory is being reduced due to supply contraction. Rebar demand is also weak, with weekly apparent demand continuing to decline and high - frequency transactions being sluggish, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The steel price is still under pressure, but the low inventory eases the contradiction. During the off - season, rebar will oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the production changes of construction steel mills [3].