1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has a weak supply - demand fundamental, with high inventory and low - level valuation. The steel price is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate due to supply - demand and macro - market factors. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate because of changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be slightly stronger, supported by cost factors [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 21,900 lots in holdings. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume was low. The supply - demand in the steel market is weak, but the pre - Spring Festival price drop has priced in the inventory pressure. The market has expectations for macro - policies, and the steel price is expected to be in narrow - range consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2605 closed at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous day, with 240,000 lots traded and a reduction of 10,000 lots in holdings. The supply from Australia and Brazil fluctuated slightly, and that from other countries increased. The molten iron output increased by 27,900 tons to 2.3328 million tons, and the inventory at 47 ports continued to accumulate. Affected by the macro - market sentiment, the ore price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1127 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (3.02%), with a reduction of 39,301 lots in holdings. The spot price in some areas changed. The supply is increasing as mines resume production, and the demand is limited due to downstream production restrictions. The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1694 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (2.54%), with a reduction of 1180 lots in holdings. The spot price at ports decreased. The cost of coking enterprises decreased, but they faced inventory pressure. The demand from steel mills is limited, and the coke price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6118 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The cost of manganese ore increased, and the production enterprises' start - up rate rose. However, the inventory of steel mills is high, and the inventory of sample enterprises is at a high level. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5786 yuan/ton, up 1.12%. The cost of electricity in some areas increased, and the production decreased. The demand from steel mills has limited room for improvement, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, along with their latest values and changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety's contracts is presented, including the latest values and changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of different regions for each variety and their changes are given [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and various cross - variety spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) are provided, along with their latest values and changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon over the years [6][7][9][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various varieties over different contract periods [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads between different contract periods for each variety [25][26][27][32][33][35][37]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [38][40][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over the years [43][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research, has rich experience in the futures industry [49]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher, has experience in investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [50].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that ZTO Express (02057, ZTO.US) experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 11% and an adjusted net profit growth of 7% in the third quarter, with an adjusted net profit per order of approximately 0.27 RMB, improving from 0.21 RMB in the second quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - ZTO Express's revenue and adjusted net profit for Q3 increased by 11% and 7% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit per order improved to about 0.27 RMB from 0.21 RMB in the previous quarter [1] - The core per order cost increased by only 0.02 RMB due to the launch of a new transit center [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 152 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 20 USD for the US stock [1] - The expectation of continued implementation of anti-competitive policies in the industry suggests that regulatory bodies will enforce price floors to curb vicious price competition [1] - Given ZTO's favorable customer structure compared to peers, the company is expected to regain market share next year, leading to a slight upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that ZTO Express (02057, ZTO. US) reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11% and an adjusted net profit growth of 7% for the third quarter, with an adjusted net profit per order of approximately 0.27 RMB, improving from 0.21 RMB in the second quarter [1] - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 152 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 20 USD for the US stock [1] - The expectation of continued implementation of anti-competition policies in the industry is highlighted, with regulatory bodies likely to enforce price floors to curb vicious price competition [1] Group 2 - ZTO Express is expected to regain market share next year due to its better customer structure compared to peers, leading to a slight upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% [1]