1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has a weak supply - demand fundamental, with high inventory and low - level valuation. The steel price is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate due to supply - demand and macro - market factors. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate because of changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be slightly stronger, supported by cost factors [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 21,900 lots in holdings. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume was low. The supply - demand in the steel market is weak, but the pre - Spring Festival price drop has priced in the inventory pressure. The market has expectations for macro - policies, and the steel price is expected to be in narrow - range consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2605 closed at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous day, with 240,000 lots traded and a reduction of 10,000 lots in holdings. The supply from Australia and Brazil fluctuated slightly, and that from other countries increased. The molten iron output increased by 27,900 tons to 2.3328 million tons, and the inventory at 47 ports continued to accumulate. Affected by the macro - market sentiment, the ore price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1127 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (3.02%), with a reduction of 39,301 lots in holdings. The spot price in some areas changed. The supply is increasing as mines resume production, and the demand is limited due to downstream production restrictions. The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1694 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (2.54%), with a reduction of 1180 lots in holdings. The spot price at ports decreased. The cost of coking enterprises decreased, but they faced inventory pressure. The demand from steel mills is limited, and the coke price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6118 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The cost of manganese ore increased, and the production enterprises' start - up rate rose. However, the inventory of steel mills is high, and the inventory of sample enterprises is at a high level. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5786 yuan/ton, up 1.12%. The cost of electricity in some areas increased, and the production decreased. The demand from steel mills has limited room for improvement, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, along with their latest values and changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety's contracts is presented, including the latest values and changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of different regions for each variety and their changes are given [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and various cross - variety spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) are provided, along with their latest values and changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon over the years [6][7][9][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various varieties over different contract periods [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads between different contract periods for each variety [25][26][27][32][33][35][37]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [38][40][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over the years [43][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research, has rich experience in the futures industry [49]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher, has experience in investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [50].

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3157 CNY/ton, an increase of 34 CNY/ton, or 1.09%, with an increase in open interest by 41,000 contracts [3][13] - Spot prices rose, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price increasing by 20 CNY/ton to 2950 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price also up by 20 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton [3][13] - National rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons week-on-week to 1.9983 million tons, while social inventory rose by 232,800 tons to 3.264 million tons [3][13] - The market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating, but overall inventory pressure is not significant [3][13] - Expectations of macro policy easing and strong performance in related sectors are boosting market sentiment for black commodities [3][13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 798.5 CNY/ton, up 15.5 CNY/ton, or 2%, with a trading volume of 310,000 contracts [4][14] - Port inventory and steel mill inventory continue to accumulate, with significant increases in steel mill inventory [5][15] - The supply side saw an increase in shipments from Australia, while Brazil's shipments remained stable [4][14] - Demand side adjustments included the repair of 5 blast furnaces and the resumption of 7, with iron production decreasing by 0.12 million tons to 2.2798 million tons [5][15] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1165 CNY/ton, an increase of 30.5 CNY/ton, or 2.69%, with a decrease in open interest by 21,423 contracts [6][16] - The supply side remains stable, with some coal mines in major production areas ceasing operations, leading to marginal reductions in output [6][16] - Steel mills are accepting the first round of price increases for coke, while demand has weakened, and the pace of inventory replenishment has slowed [6][16] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1723 CNY/ton, up 39 CNY/ton, or 2.32%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,708 contracts [7][17] - The port market for coke saw price increases, with the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port rising by 20 CNY/ton to 1470 CNY/ton [7][17] - Some coke producers are reducing output due to environmental policies, while overall inventory levels remain low [7][17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5926 CNY/ton, up 2%, with a decrease in open interest by 12,587 contracts [8][18] - Prices in various regions range from 5570 to 5800 CNY/ton, with increases in Guangxi and Jiangsu [8][18] - The market is influenced by rising costs due to electricity price adjustments and increases in coal and coke prices [8][18] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5736 CNY/ton, up 2.17%, with a decrease in open interest by 33,983 contracts [9][19] - Prices in various regions are approximately 5300 to 5350 CNY/ton, with increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [9][19] - The production of silicon iron is at a five-year low, with factories focusing on fulfilling orders [9][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Report Core View - The macro - policy easing expectation is relatively strong, the market sentiment is acceptable, and supported by the recent raw material replenishment demand of steel mills. Overall, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term [5][35] Summary of Each Directory 1. Abstract - Last week, the 2605 contract of iron ore rose 1.21%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease and a 0.70% year - on - year increase. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86% week - on - week increase and an 8.23% year - on - year decrease. The daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a 0.09 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 2.65 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 167.6653 million tons, a 2.1143 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a 0.0916 - million - ton decrease [4] 2. Disk Analysis - It includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port), and futures position net position analysis [7][11][9] 3. Important Market Information - In December 2025, China's steel output was 68.18 million tons, a 10.3% year - on - year decrease. The global crude steel output was 139.6 million tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the global crude steel output was 1.8038 billion tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. In mid - January, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease, a 1.7% decrease compared with the beginning of the year, and a 5.2% increase compared with the same period last year [14] 4. Supply - side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, a 9.11 - million - ton increase from the previous month. The import average price was $101.16 per ton, a $0.33 decrease from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 71.393 million tons, a 9.544 - million - ton increase from the previous month. Brazil's iron ore shipping volume was 27.635 million tons, a 3.328 - million - ton decrease from the first half of the month [19][23] 5. Demand - side Situation - It involves the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the procurement volume of wire rods and screws at Shanghai terminals [24][28][30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease and a 0.70% year - on - year increase. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86% week - on - week increase and an 8.23% year - on - year decrease. The daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a 0.09 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 2.65 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 167.6653 million tons, a 2.1143 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a 0.0916 - million - ton decrease. The number of ships at ports was 118, an increase of 1. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 174.9653 million tons, a 2.0783 - million - ton week - on - week increase. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2052 million tons, a 0.145 - million - ton decrease [34] 7. Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - Outlook: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [35]

Steel Industry - The national rebar production increased by 9.25 thousand tons to 1.9955 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 254.2 thousand tons [2] - Social inventory rose by 77.1 thousand tons to 3.0312 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 433.7 thousand tons [2] - The overall rebar demand is strong externally but weak internally, with significant growth in overseas demand compensating for domestic shortfalls [2] Hot Rolled Steel - National hot rolled steel production decreased by 2.95 thousand tons to 3.0541 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 172.3 thousand tons [3] - Social inventory fell by 4.66 thousand tons to 2.8114 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 241.8 thousand tons [3] - Domestic demand for hot rolled steel is average, and overseas demand has declined [4] Iron Ore - Iron water production slightly increased by 0.09 thousand tons to 228.1 thousand tons, with steel mill profitability rising by 0.86% to 40.69% [5][18] - Global iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, with Australian shipments at 16.88 million tons, down 2.436 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port and steel mill inventories continue to accumulate, with increases of 2.08 million tons and 1.27 million tons respectively [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable for low-sulfur coal, while medium-sulfur coal prices increased by 100 yuan/ton [21] - Coking enterprises are experiencing production losses, with an average loss of 70 yuan/ton, leading to reduced production enthusiasm [20] - The overall demand for coke remains weak, with a slight increase in steel mill utilization rates [20] Scrap Steel - The national scrap steel price index rose by 0.6 yuan/ton to 2198.6 yuan/ton [22] - Scrap steel demand has decreased, with daily consumption falling by 0.47 thousand tons to 50.8 thousand tons [22][23] - Short-process steel mills are experiencing expanded losses, with electricity costs turning from profit to loss [22][23] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon production slightly increased by 0.29% to 191.1 thousand tons, with demand supported by steel mills' final bidding before the holiday [24] - Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3% to 98.4 thousand tons, remaining at a five-year low [25] - Inventory levels for manganese silicon remain high, with a year-on-year increase of 22 thousand tons [24]

Market Review - Rebar futures experienced a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 3123 yuan/ton, down 1.30% [1] Fundamental Summary - During the survey period (December 2 - December 8), the operating rate and capacity utilization of rebar rolling lines in the Central China region decreased, as did those of wire rod rolling lines [2] - On December 9, the price of rebar from Zhongtian was 3240 yuan/ton, with a total shipment of 49,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the same period last week. Hangzhou's rebar inventory was 766,000 tons, a decrease of 136,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Sichuan Desheng began maintenance on a 1250m blast furnace on December 8, expected to last 7 days, impacting total rebar production by approximately 30,000 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Hengtai Futures, the supply side is constrained by weak seasonal demand for steel and poor profitability for steel mills, leading to reduced production and a decline in average daily pig iron output. The demand side is also weak, with a slowdown in cement and concrete dispatch and construction demand, resulting in a marginal decline in rebar demand. Both supply and demand are decreasing, with inventory still showing a trend of reduction. The short-term macroeconomic outlook is weakening, and the steel market is expected to continue a weak trading pattern during the off-season, with winter storage as a marginal variable. The current price level is considered undervalued, suggesting a short-term consolidation trend [3] - According to Everbright Futures, steel exports remain at a high level, alleviating some market supply pressure. The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for stable economic work next year, continuing to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. There is an expectation for further macroeconomic easing, which may boost market sentiment. However, recent significant declines in coal and coke prices have negatively impacted the black commodity sector. The short-term outlook for rebar is expected to remain in a narrow consolidation range [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation. Although steel exports are at a high level and macro - policies have a positive impact, the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices drags down the market [1]. - Iron ore: Volatility. The supply from Australia is rising while that from Brazil is falling, iron - water production is decreasing, and inventories are accumulating [1]. - Coking coal: Weak volatility. The supply increase is limited, the actual market demand is insufficient, and the downstream mainly makes rigid - demand purchases [1]. - Coke: Weak volatility. The coke output is increasing, and the terminal consumption demand is average, with the impact of weather on transportation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Volatility. The cost is high, production is decreasing, demand is to be boosted, and inventory is accumulating [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatility. The cost is high, supply reduction is limited, and the market expectation is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (1.08% decline), and the position increased by 0.3 million hands. Spot prices declined slightly. In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. The cumulative export from January to November was 10771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [1]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (1.1% decline). Australian shipments rebounded, Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased, and inventories increased [1]. - **Coking coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1093.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton (4.08% decline), and the position increased by 24153 hands. The supply increase was limited, and the actual market demand was insufficient [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1537 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (3.03% decline), and the position increased by 1550 hands. The coke output increased, and the terminal consumption demand was average [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract price of manganese silicon was 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The production cost was high, the weekly output decreased by 3.5% for 5 consecutive weeks, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises reached a new high [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5444 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. After the electricity price adjustment in November, the production reduction intention increased. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 6.0, and the 5 - 10 month spread was - 41.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 01 contract was 163.0, and that of the 05 contract was 157.0 [4]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3280.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profit and spreads**: The rebar's on - disk profit was 27.0, and the long - process profit was - 29.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 168.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of main contracts such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][45]. - **Rebar profit**: There are profit trend charts of rebar's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director and Black Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - spot trading [55].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching historical highs, is primarily driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with significant increases in industrial demand and declining supply [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by a continuous decline in global silver mine production, projected to drop to 25,200 tons in 2024, an 8.3% year-on-year decrease [3]. - The demand side has seen explosive growth, particularly in high-tech industries such as photovoltaics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, with global photovoltaic silver usage expected to reach 6,147 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.09% from 2014 to 2024 [4]. - Global silver inventories are at multi-year lows, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory falling to 559 tons, the lowest since 2015, and the New York Mercantile Exchange silver inventory decreasing by nearly 16.5% to 142,000 tons [4][5]. Market Sentiment and External Factors - Expectations of continued macroeconomic policy easing, geopolitical tensions, and rising gold prices are contributing to heightened market sentiment and driving silver prices higher [6]. - The current gold-silver ratio remains historically high, suggesting that silver is undervalued compared to gold, attracting speculative investments [6]. Investment Considerations - The volatility of silver prices is significantly higher than that of gold, with historical data indicating sharp price fluctuations [7]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding high leverage and considering gradual investments to mitigate price volatility risks [7][8]. - Holding physical silver is not recommended due to storage challenges and potential oxidation; instead, silver ETFs are suggested as a more suitable investment vehicle for ordinary investors [8].