转自：新华财经 新华财经上海9月30日电 中信证券研报分析认为，伴随中秋旺季临近，白酒市场需求呈现缓慢复苏态 势，渠道持续以开瓶动销去库存调整为主，预计国庆中秋长假期间白酒动销同比下滑约15%-20%，其中 宴席场景和大众价格带的白酒消费表现或相对较好。 上述研报表示，本轮白酒行业基本面底有望出现在2025年三季度，预计今年三季度是行业动销、价格、 市场信心压力最大的阶段，预计今年下半年是白酒上市公司报表业绩压力最大的阶段，再考虑到后续逐 步复苏趋势明确，看好白酒行业底部配置机会。啤酒下半年基数较低，节前备货节奏保持稳定，但考虑 到竞争烈度有所加剧以及限酒令影响，预计三季度报表端有一定压力。 编辑：林郑宏 ...

人民财讯9月30日电，中信证券研报认为，伴随中秋旺季临近，白酒市场需求呈现缓慢复苏态势，渠道 持续以开瓶动销去库存调整为主，预计国庆中秋长假期间白酒动销同比下滑约15%—20%，其中宴席场 景和大众价格带的白酒消费表现或相对较好。中信证券延续此前判断，本轮行业基本面底有望出现在 2025年三季度，预计今年三季度是行业动销、价格、市场信心压力最大的阶段，预计今年下半年是白酒 上市公司报表业绩压力最大的阶段，再考虑到后续逐步复苏趋势明确，看好白酒行业底部配置机会。啤 酒下半年基数较低，节前备货节奏保持稳定，但考虑到竞争烈度有所加剧以及限酒令影响，预计三季度 报表端有一定压力。 ...

Group 1 - The liquor industry is currently in the bottoming phase of its third major cycle in the past thirty years, with the fundamental bottom expected to appear in Q3 2025 [2][3] - The third quarter of this year is anticipated to be the most challenging period for industry sales, prices, and market confidence, while the second half of the year will see significant pressure on the financial performance of liquor companies [2][3] - If demand recovers normally, a turning point in sales is expected as early as Q1 2026 [2] Group 2 - The overall stock price of the liquor sector has decreased by 1.7% from January 1, 2025, to August 22, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.0 percentage points [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the liquor sector is at 19.0x, which is at the 41st, 16th, 9th, 5th, and 14th percentiles compared to the past 1, 3, 5, 10 years, and since listing, respectively [1] - The beer sector's overall price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 24.1x, positioned at the 21st, 12th, 7th, 3rd, and 2nd percentiles over the same time frames [1] Group 3 - In the first seven months of 2025, the production of large-scale beer enterprises in China reached 23.27 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [3] - The beer sector is expected to maintain stable performance in Q3 2025, although some impact from alcohol-related policies is anticipated [3] - The leading companies in the beer sector may benefit from cost reductions, with a slight increase in gross profit margins expected in Q3 [3]