受外部需求冲击，行业整体动销预计下滑20%+，月度间环比改善，降幅逐月收窄，中秋国庆双节整体 下滑20%左右。 分场景来看，商务宴请表现较弱，大众消费、婚喜宴场景相对坚挺、Q3降幅较小，高端礼赠节前有改 善。 从酒企表现来看，普遍更加务实，加速调整出清，减少渠道压力，同时缩减费投力度、提升经营效率。 回款端，茅台、五粮液（000858）、汾酒等头部酒企回款进度达80%+，区域酒企整体进度尚可、多数 达到70%，次高端酒企压力较大。 《酒业内参》获悉，近期，五粮液在多地分别召开了经销商联谊会。经销商联谊会主要释放两个信号： 一是，着重强调将严查扰乱市场价格的低价货；二是，公布补贴政策，将加大对不同体量经销商的补贴 力度。 财通证券（601108）发布研报称，从两轮白酒产业调整的节奏看，当前白酒行业调整接近尾声，消费场 景上看预计家庭宴席场景的修复快于商务需求，龙头企业管理提效将持续提升份额。 中信证券研报表示，2025年秋季糖酒会表现符合预期，行业正在积极拥抱消费者端，拓展市场需求。展 望未来，我们判断行业基本面底有望出现在2025年三季度，预计今年三季度是行业动销、价格、市场信 心压力最大的阶段，预计今年下半 ...

中信证券表示，2025年秋季糖酒会表现符合预期，行业正在积极拥抱消费者端，拓展市场需求。展望未 来，我们判断行业基本面底有望出现在2025年三季度，预计今年三季度是行业动销、价格、市场信心压 力最大的阶段，预计今年下半年是白酒上市公司报表业绩压力最大的阶段，再考虑到后续逐步复苏趋势 明确，看好白酒行业底部配置机会。啤酒下半年基数较低，节前备货节奏保持稳定，但考虑到竞争烈度 有所加剧以及限酒令影响，预计三季度报表端有一定压力。 ...

Group 1 - The liquor industry is currently in the bottoming phase of its third major cycle in the past thirty years, with the fundamental bottom expected to appear in Q3 2025 [2][3] - The third quarter of this year is anticipated to be the most challenging period for industry sales, prices, and market confidence, while the second half of the year will see significant pressure on the financial performance of liquor companies [2][3] - If demand recovers normally, a turning point in sales is expected as early as Q1 2026 [2] Group 2 - The overall stock price of the liquor sector has decreased by 1.7% from January 1, 2025, to August 22, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.0 percentage points [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the liquor sector is at 19.0x, which is at the 41st, 16th, 9th, 5th, and 14th percentiles compared to the past 1, 3, 5, 10 years, and since listing, respectively [1] - The beer sector's overall price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 24.1x, positioned at the 21st, 12th, 7th, 3rd, and 2nd percentiles over the same time frames [1] Group 3 - In the first seven months of 2025, the production of large-scale beer enterprises in China reached 23.27 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [3] - The beer sector is expected to maintain stable performance in Q3 2025, although some impact from alcohol-related policies is anticipated [3] - The leading companies in the beer sector may benefit from cost reductions, with a slight increase in gross profit margins expected in Q3 [3]

36氪获悉，中信证券研报表示，白酒行业正在快速筑底，考虑到当前库存、价格、政策影响、消费场景 恢复、上市公司报表等众多因素，我们判断本轮行业基本面底有望出现在2025三季度，预计今年三季度 是行业动销、价格、市场信心压力最大的阶段，预计今年下半年是白酒上市公司报表业绩压力最大的阶 段，再考虑到后续逐步复苏趋势明确，看好白酒行业底部配置机会。啤酒下半年基数较低，但考虑到限 酒令影响，预计三季度报表表现维持稳定态势。 ...