Group 1 - The main contract for pulp futures showed a fluctuating trend, closing at 5064.00 yuan with a decrease of 0.47% [1] - New Century Futures expects pulp prices to remain weak and fluctuate [2] - Guotai Junan Futures suggests a range-bound trading strategy due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [3] Group 2 - Southwest Futures reports a significant decline in the pulp futures market, with both needle and broadleaf pulp prices dropping [4] - The overall production of downstream products is decreasing, contributing to a sluggish demand for raw paper [4] - High port inventory levels and increased supply pressure from Brazil are negatively impacting market confidence [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by the balance between macro - expectations and off - season effects, and is expected to move in a volatile manner. For alumina, the fundamentals show an oversupply and stable demand situation, with stable bauxite prices providing some cost support. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is relatively stable, demand is affected by the season in the short - term but is expected to improve in the long - term, and macro sentiment dominates the market changes. The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position volatile trading for both the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum and alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading for the main casting aluminum contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly with a weekly increase of 0.56%, closing at 20,580 yuan/ton; alumina rebounded from a low level with a weekly increase of 3.32%, closing at 2,986 yuan/ton. Alumina's fundamentals are in a stage of oversupply and stable demand, and bauxite price stability provides cost support. Electrolytic aluminum's supply is relatively stable, short - term demand is affected by the season, and long - term demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading for both [6]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The main casting aluminum contract fluctuated strongly with a weekly increase of 0.76%, closing at 19,790 yuan/ton. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from June 20; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,585 US dollars/ton, up 2.36% from June 20; the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.13 from June 20. Alumina's futures price was 3,075 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from June 20; the main casting aluminum alloy's closing price was 19,790 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from June 20 [11][12][15]. - **Position Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's open interest was 670,796 lots, up 3.66% from June 20; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 24,530 lots from June 20 [18]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton from June 20; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 59,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,815 yuan/ton from June 20 [23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from June 20; in Shanxi, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from June 20; in Guiyang, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from June 20. The national average price of casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from June 20. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 1.16% from June 20, with a spot premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week [26][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, LME's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 336,900 tons, down 2.33% from June 19; as of June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 94,290 tons, down 9.76% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 424,000 tons, up 2.66% from June 19. As of June 27, 2025, the total registered warrants of electrolytic aluminum in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 34,390 tons, down 32.74% from June 20; as of June 26, 2025, LME's total registered electrolytic aluminum warrants were 322,850 tons, up 0.33% from June 19 [33]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The current inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports is 24.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. In May 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 159,700.92 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the export volume was 72.44 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [43]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May 2025, the alumina import volume was 67,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 530.46%, a year - on - year decrease of 26.27%; the export volume was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 110%. From January to May, the cumulative alumina import was 167,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.45% [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In May 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.139 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%; the total capacity was 45.202 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%; the operating rate was 97.65%, an increase of 0.05% from last month, a decrease of 1.75% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; from January to May, the cumulative aluminum product output was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May 2025, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%; the export volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. From January to May, the aluminum product import volume was 1.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; the export volume was 2.43 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [57]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%. In May 2025, the newly built capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.271 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0%, a year - on - year increase of 20.29% [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%; from January to May, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 7.405 million tons. In May 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 97,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.12%; the export volume was 24,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. From January to May, the aluminum alloy import volume was 464,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.41%; the export volume was 94,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.44% [63]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from last month, an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2024, the newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%; the completed housing area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94% [66]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to May 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%; China's automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [74].

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